Predict how California's Prop 8 does

[Dan the Roman]

People are forgetting that they did sue back in July on exactly these grounds(ie. it was a Constitutional Revision, not an Amendment), and the Court, rather than ruling on the merits, stated they did not have standing until the Amendment passed.

They are taking up the Court's invitation. Anyway the Revision thing is not frivolous. The Constitution has an equal protection clause. There is a real question if you can add to the back of the Constitution "the equal protection clause does not apply to Gays" without editing the clause in question itself. The California Constitution does not allow public referendums to reverse court rulings, or  to add language contradictory to existing sections. Banning Gay Marriage is contradictory to requiring, hence it can only be done through the revision process which requires 2/3rds of the Legislature and then a public vote.

I personally have qualms about this argument, but it is a real one, and there is a strong argument that Prop 8 does not meet the standards for an Amendment. Clearly though the Court was hoping it would fail, hence why they declined to remove it from the ballot this summer. Now they are left with the choice between striking it down, or ignoring it. I think the 52% margin makes them more likely to strike it down though than if it was passed by 62%.