Predict how California's Prop 8 does
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  Predict how California's Prop 8 does
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Poll
Question: How does Prop 8 do, rounded to the nearest percent?
#1
<45
 
#2
45
 
#3
46
 
#4
47
 
#5
48
 
#6
49
 
#7
narrow fail
 
#8
narrow pass
 
#9
51
 
#10
52
 
#11
53
 
#12
54
 
#13
55
 
#14
> 55
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 35

Author Topic: Predict how California's Prop 8 does  (Read 7451 times)
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jfern
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« on: October 31, 2008, 07:55:23 PM »

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Citizen James
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2008, 08:27:40 PM »

I'll take the cop-out of "narrow fail" (45-49.5% for).

Just because I've been waiting to toss out this observation - and I've been watching California returns for a couple of decades now - early returns tend to be more conservative than the overall results.

So it will reach it's highest 'pass' level at around 2-10% of the vote counted.   If it's failing at that point it should go down, if it's over 60% it'll probably pass, inbetween may make for a long night.

Then again, heavy early voting for Obama might change the dynamics of the returns this time around.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2008, 08:39:44 PM »

     If yes received 45%, I doubt you could call that narrow.
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2008, 08:42:00 PM »

The options narrow fail and narrow pass are only supposed to be for the case where it gets 50%, rounded to the nearest percent. If you think that it'll do worse than 49.5% or better than 50.5%, don't vote them.
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2008, 08:48:12 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2008, 08:49:47 PM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

I'll take the cop-out of "narrow fail" (45-49.5% for).

Just because I've been waiting to toss out this observation - and I've been watching California returns for a couple of decades now - early returns tend to be more conservative than the overall results.

So it will reach it's highest 'pass' level at around 2-10% of the vote counted.   If it's failing at that point it should go down, if it's over 60% it'll probably pass, inbetween may make for a long night.

Then again, heavy early voting for Obama might change the dynamics of the returns this time around.

Yes, Orange county and the like tends to report the fastest. Often it can be useful to look at the early results from San Benito, they're a bellwether for California, except for that SOS election where the Republican was from that area. And not for primaries, either, they were hardcore Clinton.
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2008, 01:34:24 AM »

52ish.
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bgwah
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2008, 01:41:48 AM »

Narrow fail
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2008, 02:32:52 AM »

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phk
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2008, 03:53:56 AM »


Its going to be the battle of Obama supporters.

The White liberals and the minorities.

If it passes its because of Hispanics, Blacks and to some degree Asians voting Yes. If it fails its because of White Obama supporters having high turnout.
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cannonia
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2008, 04:20:35 AM »


Its going to be the battle of Obama supporters.

The White liberals and the minorities.

If it passes its because of Hispanics, Blacks and to some degree Asians voting Yes. If it fails its because of White Obama supporters having high turnout.

Actually, there's a house with a funny set of political signs nearby.  I'll take a photo soon and put it up here.
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phk
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2008, 04:34:17 AM »


Its going to be the battle of Obama supporters.

The White liberals and the minorities.

If it passes its because of Hispanics, Blacks and to some degree Asians voting Yes. If it fails its because of White Obama supporters having high turnout.

Actually, there's a house with a funny set of political signs nearby.  I'll take a photo soon and put it up here.

I actually walked around National City (low income, heavily Hispanic area) and saw several "Yes on 8" signs. So if it passes it will because of voters like them voting Yes.

The "No on 8" people are heavily in control of the upscale White areas of San Diego who are willing to cast a ballot for Obama.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2008, 04:19:32 PM »

Narrow Pass
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afleitch
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2008, 05:37:44 PM »

Narrow Fail
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2008, 06:59:08 PM »

I think (hope) it fails by 4-5 points.
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2008, 11:41:05 PM »

48
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Sbane
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2008, 12:05:27 AM »

I will say it passes 51-49.
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2008, 04:28:21 AM »

Well, I was the first 49% vote.
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2008, 04:36:04 AM »

     It's worth noting that we're predicting it to fail by a margin of 20-11. Hopefully we're right.
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2008, 11:07:33 AM »

     It's worth noting that we're predicting it to fail by a margin of 20-11. Hopefully we're right.

And I bet of those 20, most when they think of California think SF and Hollywood. Too bad they don't think of the IE and the central valley. The yes people are gonna stack up the margins there.
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2008, 11:39:26 PM »

     It's worth noting that we're predicting it to fail by a margin of 20-11. Hopefully we're right.

And I bet of those 20, most when they think of California think SF and Hollywood. Too bad they don't think of the IE and the central valley. The yes people are gonna stack up the margins there.

     Leaving work today, just on the way from City Hall to the bus stop, I saw three groups of people waving No on 8 signs. All of the cars that passed honked vigorously.

     Hopefully it will lose though. Since, the worst state in the Union looks like it will pass a similar amendment, this is our chance to one-up them in the quest to become a truly free nation. Tongue
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2008, 12:14:46 AM »

     It's worth noting that we're predicting it to fail by a margin of 20-11. Hopefully we're right.

And I bet of those 20, most when they think of California think SF and Hollywood. Too bad they don't think of the IE and the central valley. The yes people are gonna stack up the margins there.

     Leaving work today, just on the way from City Hall to the bus stop, I saw three groups of people waving No on 8 signs. All of the cars that passed honked vigorously.

     Hopefully it will lose though. Since, the worst state in the Union looks like it will pass a similar amendment, this is our chance to one-up them in the quest to become a truly free nation. Tongue

Gay marriage is far from being the canary in the freedom coalmine. There are much more important issues that indicate personal freedom.
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2008, 03:17:49 AM »

     It's worth noting that we're predicting it to fail by a margin of 20-11. Hopefully we're right.

And I bet of those 20, most when they think of California think SF and Hollywood. Too bad they don't think of the IE and the central valley. The yes people are gonna stack up the margins there.

     Leaving work today, just on the way from City Hall to the bus stop, I saw three groups of people waving No on 8 signs. All of the cars that passed honked vigorously.

     Hopefully it will lose though. Since, the worst state in the Union looks like it will pass a similar amendment, this is our chance to one-up them in the quest to become a truly free nation. Tongue

Gay marriage is far from being the canary in the freedom coalmine. There are much more important issues that indicate personal freedom.

     Well sure. I was feeling like waxing poetic there. Smiley
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jfern
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2008, 05:09:53 AM »

Did anyone else get a robocall that tried to claim that Obama supported Prop. 8 about an hour before the polls closed? Gay marriage is a stupid issue, but Prop. 8's supporter's are some of the most vile people in the world, and I really hope that this somehow manages to lose. Nothing like spreading lies an hour before the polls close; no way for people to call you on your BS.
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jfern
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2008, 05:18:54 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2008, 05:31:50 AM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

A more careful analysis, I'm pretty sure that Prop. 8 has passed. LA county is only about 90% in. Right now it's passing there by 1 point. Generally, the liberal side of an issue has to win there to win statewide. The other areas yet to report are parts of Santa Clara, Orange, and some random other counties, that at best cancel eachother out. The right-wing didn't do so well in other races this election, but they sure managed to do well with their wedge issues.

Edit: There might be a sliver of a chance from absentee and provisonal ballots. In 2004, there were around 2 million votes in California that counted that weren't counted election night.
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phk
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2008, 06:23:22 AM »


Its going to be the battle of Obama supporters.

The White liberals and the minorities.

If it passes its because of Hispanics, Blacks and to some degree Asians voting Yes. If it fails its because of White Obama supporters having high turnout.

Looks like which group of Obama supporters won.
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