2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

TPP Ko has been in USA for a while..  It seems that he did not really get to meet anyone with consequence in the USA government.  It seems the USA government position is that they see Ko as at best a spoiler in 2024 and is not taking him seriously.  At this stage TPP Ko will run to help the TPP PR vote.  If so it would be sort like the 2012 PFP Soong campaign which was never to win but to help PFP PR vote which in that sense it worked.

[jaichind]

KMT Vice chairperson 連勝文(Sean Lien) came out and said that the KMT was open to KMT-TPP alliance in some legislative district elections.  連勝文(Sean Lien) is the son of former KMT VP as well as 2000 and 2004 KMT candidate for Prez.  連勝文(Sean Lien) has an interesting relationship with TPP leader Ko  In 2010 elections 連勝文(Sean Lien) was shot the night before the election and then Deep Green doctor Ko saved 連勝文(Sean Lien)'s life and vouched that the shooting was for certain not staged.  連勝文(Sean Lien) then ran against DPP backed Ko in 2014 for Taipei mayor as the KMT candidate and lost in a landslide in a bitter election.

The fact the KMT had 連勝文(Sean Lien) come out with this proposal shows that the are fairly sincere about their proposal.  I think TPP will be fairly negative on this.  Any such tactical alliance will only reduce TPP's image as an independent party and hurt the TPP PR vote which must be TPP Ko's main goal. 

[jaichind]

Jaichind, if the current state of the race was a US-style 538 0/100 thing what would each party be at? Would it be something like 70% chance of a KMT win and 30% of a DPP win? Or something else?

I would say KMT 55 DPP 45.  DPP is being underestimated right now in my view.  There is a clear path for the DPP to become unified while the anti-DPP camp will likely see a KMT-TPP split plus the Guo factor and more some anti-Hou elements in the KMT.  On the other than if I would to rate largest party in legislature I would say it is KMT 75 DPP 25 since it is clear the anti-DPP base will be larger in this election and will that will give the KMT the edge in legislative elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semiconductor-factories-avoid-china-trump-adviser-2023-3

"US would destroy Taiwan's semiconductor factories rather than letting them fall into China's hands, a former national security advisor says"

Great propaganda piece for the KMT narrative on DPP turning ROC over to the USA to become just like Ukraine and be destroyed as collateral damage.  The pro-PRC factions in the KMT have been using this as a talking for a while and this is the first confirmation that this might be USA's plan from a USA source.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/honduras-president-says-govt-seek-official-relations-with-china-2023-03-14/

"Honduras to seek China relations, pressuring Taiwan ahead of US trip"

Honduras dumps ROC for PRC.  During 2008-2016 PRC and ROC had a de facto diplomatic truce where neither side went after any country that had relations with the other.  All that went way in 2016 when the DPP regime took over on ROC and the truce ended.

[jaichind]

Lai registers to be a DPP candidate for Prez in 2024.  Most likely no one else will register.  The path is clear for Lai to unify the DPP.  There are some anti-South New Tide factions that Lai needs to buy off in terms of power-sharing.  There are some pro-Tsai factions that need to be bought off in terms of showing the right respect and deference for DPP Prez Tsai after she steps down.  But the narrative is clear.  The 2022 local elections results were so bad for DPP that there is no way around Lai being the leader and candidate of the DPP.

[jaichind]

The Guo-Ko dynamic seems to be changing.  A few months ago it was clear that Ko was looking to form an alliance with Guo.  The idea is that Ko needs to be on the Prez ticket in order to help push up the TPP PR vote.  Running by himself just means he will be the victim of tactical voting so the best thing for Ko was to be on a third-party Guo-Ko ticket to be part of a close 3-way race.

Now with polls showing Lai catching up, KMT's interest in taking a bet on Guo is going down and that is worrying Guo.  So Guo's way out is to pursue an alliance with Ko in order to say to the KMT, look, nominate me and I get Ko to step aside (and maybe even run as Guo's running mate.)  Well, a KMT Guo-Ko ticket will be unlikely since that will anger the KMT leadership base by running two KMT outsiders as the KMT ticket.  Guo is Deep Blue and ideologically close to the KMT but he is no longer a party member.  Also now Ko sees that Guo is going to use him as a way to get the KMT nomination he is cooling on the idea of a Guo-Ko alliance since Ko running on a Guo-Ko ticket would also defeat his going of pushing up the TPP PR vote.

[jaichind]

In a dovish move, ROC announces the reopening of direct flights with Mainland China which were shut down at the beginning of COVID.  The PRC indicated earlier in 2022 that they were ready for the resumption of direct flights but were turned down by DPP due to their need to set the narrative in the 2022 local elections.  What is interesting is that ROC announced this on the same day Xi was re-elected as PRC Prez for his third term.  This is clearly not a coincidence and along with DPP Prez Tsai telling McCarthy not to visit ROC, it seems that DPP Prez Tsai is focused on her legacy.  It is also likely that in her assessment that rising tensions with PRC might not work to the DPP advantage in 2024 elections unlikely 2020.

From what I understand, although tourism from mainlanders helped Taiwanese economy, average Taiwanese didn't like interacting with mainlander tourists. Is this true?

Maybe a bit when the first large wave of tourists showed up in 2009.  I do not think this is much of a problem these days.  Understand that over 1 million people from ROC work and live (at least part-time) on the Mainland so the level of interactions was quite large, especially since 2009.  I think this is a problem for Mainland tourists in Japan where they are loved for their money but hated for how they behave.  My impression is this has gotten better this past decade but for sure a large number of people in Japan (not associated with the tourist or retail industry of course) would prefer if the Mailand Chinese tourist are not there.

1 million people? do you have the data? I don't think it is such many people work there.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/11/16/2003604555

"It is estimated that there are more than 1 million Taiwanese living in China. About 210,000 people returned to vote in the 2012 presidential election."

[jaichind]

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/11/16/2003604555

"It is estimated that there are more than 1 million Taiwanese living in China. About 210,000 people returned to vote in the 2012 presidential election."

https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20210511002936-260409?chdtv

According to census done by China on 2020, there are only about 158k Taiwanese living in China.

Well, first let me say that I do not know either way. 

I speculate the difference between various estimates is methodological differences in how to account for permanent or temporary ROC citizens living on the Mainland. Meaning at any point in time there might be a large number of people from ROC-controlled territories living on the Mainland but they are there only for a few months or a couple of years.  If this is the reason that further reinforces my original point "Mainland tourist in large numbers on ROC is not an issue since so many people from ROC has lived on the Mainland for some amount of time (be it  temporary or permanent.)

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/former-taiwan-president-ma-visit-china-landmark-trip-2023-03-19/

"Former Taiwan president Ma to visit China in landmark trip"

Former ROC Prez Ma to visit Mainland China.  This will be the first time a former ROC Prez will set foot on the mainland since 1949.  To be fair the real breakthrough in my mind was the 2005 summit between KMT Chairperson Lien and CCP Chairperson Hu on the mainland.  There are ROC laws that forbid former ROC officials from visiting the mainland for a time period but they have expired for Ma.  The DPP even changed the laws on this to stop Ma from visiting the mainland a few years back.  I am not sure what they think they are stopping.  If Ma wanted to give ROC secrets to the CCP he does not need to visit the mainland to do so.

[jaichind]

Looks like former KMT Prez Ma's trip to the Mainland will overlap with DPP Prez Tsai's trip the USA exactly.  I suspect news from both trips will overshadow the other on the media during that week.

[jaichind]

Latest updates:
Lai gets DPP 2024 Prez nomination by default.
KMT announces that its Prez candidate will be decided in June via a drafting approach.  Namely, the KMT will do some private polls and then approach key candidates (namely Hou and Guo) with the results with the goal of getting one of them to automatically endorse the other, and then the KMT will just draft one of them.

In the meantime given Lai's winning the nomination and the chaos in the KMT, for now, Lai takes the lead in the DPP renegade TPOF poll

DPP Lai    36.2(+8.5)
KMT Hou  24.8(-7.6)
TPP Ko     19.0(-0.5)



Given the pan-Green bias of TPOF, I am sure Lai's lead is not that large but it would not surprise me at all given the media narrative that Lai would be ahead.

On the legislative election front, the KMT seems to be winning the battle of MP retirements.  Several sitting DPP MPs that are in lean Blue districts indicated that they are not running for re-election.  A key DPP maverick MLA decided to challenge a DPP incumbent in a safe DPP district instead of running in a marginal district.  The fact is that Lai has a decent shot at winning due to the ability of TPP Ko to win part of the anti-DPP vote.  Potential DPP legislative candidates know that the TPP has nothing down-ballot as strong as Ko and that in legislative races the anti-DPP vote is likely to consolidate and that the DPP position in legislative race is not rosy at at all.

[jaichind]

Ettoday 2024 Prez election poll

3-way

DPP Lai    34.2
KMT Hou  27.6
TPP Ko     16.9


2-way

KMT Hou  39.3
DPP Lai    37.0


The main problem for Lai is that in a close race, TPP Ko will be below 10% or above 20%.  If TPP Ko is below 10%, the tactical vote will benefit KMT Hou.  And if TPP Ko is above 20% then he most likely got all the light Blue votes he is going to get and he might then attract anti-KMT DPP-TPP swing youth voters.

These numbers most likely underestimate Hou who will get a surge when he is actually nominated while DPP Lai already had his surge based on his de facto nomination.

[jaichind]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-honduras-taiwan-diplomatic-ties-us-tensions-rcna76697

"Honduras forms diplomatic ties with China after breaking relations with Taiwan"

Despite days of USA lobbying on behalf of ROC Honduras drops ROC for PRC.

[jaichind]

How many are left in the ROC diplomatic camp now?

13

It did not have to be like this.  There was a de facto diplomatic truce between PRC and ROC from 2008-2016 based on the "92 Consensus" which was "we agree that there is One China but will agree to disagree on who that One China is".  This opened the way for the PRC to internally justify not going after states that recognized ROC on the premise that "those are minor states anyway and in a virtual sense the Taipei regime can represent China so we are indirectly represented in those minor states."

[jaichind]

Today former KMT Prez Ma starts his Mainland China trip and in two days DPP Prez Tsai will start her trip to the USA in the battle of dueling trips between Ma and Tsai.

[jaichind]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-honduras-taiwan-diplomatic-ties-us-tensions-rcna76697

"Honduras forms diplomatic ties with China after breaking relations with Taiwan"

Despite days of USA lobbying on behalf of ROC Honduras drops ROC for PRC.

It seems PRC timed this to avoid having this take place while Ma is visiting the Mainland.  The original plan was to have this take place while DPP Prez Tsai is in the USA to embarrasses her but the duplication of Ma and Tsai trips made PRC shift the timing to before both trips.

[jaichind]

Number of diplomatic state that recognize ROC by Prez.

As of 2000 it was 29 and now it is down to 13

                          Gain         Loss            Total
DPP Prez Chen        3             9                23
KMT Prez Ma                          1*              22
DPP Prez Tsai                         9                13

* This is The Gambia which broke off relations with ROC on its own without PRC being involved.  As part of the de facto KMT Prez Ma PRC-ROC diplomatic truce the PRC refused to from formal relations with The Gambia which persist to this day.  The PRC position seems to be that The Gambia broke off relations with ROC during the 2008-2016 de facto diplomatic true era so they did not form formal relations with The Gambia even after DPP Prez Tsai took over which ended the de facto true.   So The Gambia today has neither relations with PRC nor ROC.

[jaichind]

I suspect Paraguay is next.  Brazil Prez Lula has plans to get PRC involved in a lot of Latin American infrastructure projects many of which involve road and rail in between Latin American countries.  One condition the PRC will have, will of course, that Paraguay  has to switch which I am sure Paraguay will switch.  Paraguay needs the infrastructure that the PRC will be able to build for them.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/foxconn-founder-gou-possible-taiwan-presidential-candidate-visit-us-2023-03-27/

"Foxconn founder Gou, possible Taiwan presidential candidate, to visit US"

Guo will visit USA.  It is clearly a bid to get USA support for his candidacy to help him to get the KMT nomination.  Guo's line will be "I am deep blue but I have good relations with USA and PRC.  I get things done and I can do deals for the betterment of ROC."

[jaichind]

Former KMT Prez Ma arrives in Mainland China.  At Ma's request, there will be no Ma-Xi meeting but in terms of security measures, the PRC is giving Ma head of state treatment.    BTW, while Ma is the first former ROC Prez to visit the Mainland since 1949 he is not the first ROC Prez to visit the Mainland since 1949.  This is because both DPP Prez Chen and DPP Prez Tsai visited the Mainland before they became ROC Prez.  With Ma's visit, KMT Prez Lee who passed away in 2020 will be the only ROC Prez that has never been to the Mainland as all ROC Prez before Lee was born on the Mainland.

Ma's visit is about duel narratives between the KMT and Tsai's "Two China" "New DPP".  Ma is visiting all the key Mainland locations related to the ROC before 1945.  Tsai's "Two China" "New DPP" defines ROC as a post-1945 entity with no roots on the Mainland.  Ma's visit is about an alternative narrative of ROC having its start in 1911 and that the current ROC has its roots on the Mainland and cannot be cut off from its roots.

[jaichind]

DPP Prez Tsai left for the USA as a transit point for her Latin America trip.  She will arrive in the USA privately because the USA does not recognize ROC.  It is clear she will meet Speaker McCarthy while she is in LA.  In theory, this will make PRC jump and perhaps would make proactive military moves.  But former KMT Prez Ma being in Mainland China and the need not to embarrass Ma would mean that in reality, the PRC will do nothing.  In many ways, Ma being in Mainland China is shielding DPP Prez from the clear blowback that would have come.  Within the DPP this is mixed news.  There are some factions (some aligned closely with DPP Prez candidate Lai) that feel that an escalation by PRC will help them in the 2024 elections while others (mostly aligned with DPP Prez Tsai) feel that escalation would hurt the DPP in 2024.

[jaichind]

On his trip to various locations on the Mainland, Ma, as per Chinese tradition, was asked to leave some calligraphy behind associated with his trip.  He is the first ROC politician visiting the Mainland that explicitly uses ROC.  Here is his calligraphy for Mainland Sun Yet Sen Memorial (we on ROC have one in Taipei).

Here he explicitly writes down the date 112 (112th year of ROC) along with 2023 (which is the way the dating methods PRC (the PRC are traitors in this respect to the classical Chinese tradition)).  Here his writing is "Fight for Peace, Revive Chinese civilization" which is a a play on Sun Yet Sen's last spoken words before his death.

The PRC is mostly letting him get away with as to not rock the boat for Ma and for the KMT in the 2024 election

[jaichind]

The security detail the PRC has sent to protect Ma is from the PRC central security detail group that has its primary mission of protecting Prez/Chairperson Xi and PM Li and a couple of other top dogs in the PRC government.   

[jaichind]

DPP Prez Tsai's arrival in LA was supposed to be accompanied by a USA State Department APAC press conference that will report on Tsai's visit (as a private citizen.)  It got canceled last minute.  I suspect this has to do with Biden wanting Yellen to visit PRC soon (to get the PRC to buy more treasures or at least not to sell them) and needing this move to show Xi some goodwill.  This is just a guess.  We will see what developed.  If I am right then everyone of political consequences that Tsai will meet in the USA will be from the GOP and none will be from the Democrats.  If so then I suspect my theory is correct and Biden is prioritizing the USA treasury market above everything else in the short run with respect to the PRC.