TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[S019]

Cornyn is not safe, but to say that he is DOA or another Nelson is ridiculous, if Trump does not lose Texas, neither will Cornyn. If Trump loses Texas, Cornyn is in big trouble. So right now about 80-90% chance that he is reelected. TX has not turned purple yet, it is still light red, if 2020 is another 2006/2008 then this seat probably flips.

[S019]

Yes, Cornyn is unknown, but Dems don't really have a bench here other than the Castros and O'Rourke. Also many voters in TX can take their anger out on Trump, this is why many suburban Republicans won O'Rourke districts, these are Reps who hate Trump/Cruz. Cornyn is Generic R, I think he beats Castro 50-46, Hegar 51-45, and he beats Generic D 55-45

[S019]

Cuellar would draw crossovers from moderate Republicans who do not vote Democrat, because "they always nominate liberals."
If Trump wins in 2020, then in 2024 with an Eight Year Itch and Cruz up for reelection, Cuellar could wait till then and would make that seat at least Lean D

[S019]

According to the Associated Press/Fox News exit polls, Beto won Latino men 63/35 (women 74/25). If Castro can improve that showing and hold Beto's suburban support, the seat is his.

Helps that Latino men faced ethnic/gender identity cross pressure from Cruz that Cornyn will not be able to exert.

He probably needs to not just hold Beto's suburban support, but to build a little bit off of it in order to actually win. As in

-clear 60% in Harris
-fight to a draw or near draw in Collin and Denton
-hold and build on the Stalinist margins out of metro Austin

IMO, these will come naturally just from the presidential race, considering he is solidly progressive and won't turn off any new voters in 2020. Castro's huge advantage is his ability to turn out Latinos, whose relatively low turnout compared to 2016 is likely what ended Beto.  Combine high latino turnout and Beto(probably better actually, considering how fast these areas are growing) #s in suburbs and although Cornyn will gain a few 100k from high rural turnout, I would put it at pure tossup.

He will turn off moderates, Clinton won lots of moderates in TX, Cornyn is the inoffensive Generic R and a progressive like Castro will alienate moderates

[S019]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1106654605172244481

Joaquin Castro to enter the Senate race soon, sources say.

I've always thought that a combo of Castro running for Senate (either, but Joaquin is the stronger candidate) & Beto also on the ballot- Texas really does become dead even.  Castro will naturally increase Latino turnout to some degree.  And Trump & Cornyn have much lower approval ratings than Cruz (which is shocking for most ppl outside of Texas). 

So if you start at Beto's 3% loss.  Add a bump in Latino turnout, factor in Trump & Cornyn being less popular than Cruz (& Abbott who was also on the ballot in 2018)- and add a small bump if Beto in the nom/ for being the home state candidate...

This could be the year Texas finally falls. The Texas quinnipiac poll from a couple of weeks ago had Beto:46 ... Trump:47 (and I would imagine Castro vs Cornyn is pretty much the same).

You forgot that 2020 will easily be 3-5 points more Republican than 2018, so even with tour parameters, that is a 3-5 Cornyn/Trump victory, but I feel you are being way too generous to Democrats, it seems like a competitve state, but i doubt it actually flips, I see it being like NC/FL for a while and then going the way of VA, but these changes won’t happen overnight

I think Lean R is appropriate for this race

[S019]

New Jersey conservative says that Susan Collins can win in ME and Ernst win in IA, if a Dem nominer carries either ME or IA, but Dems cant win in AZ or GA or TX, if Trump carries the state. Dems are likely to win 51-48, PVI and EC college; if its a Harris-Beto ticket; either Castro or MJ and Kelly and Dem nominee win: CO, TX and AZ and even win AL. As a result, Dems win trifecta: Oval office, House, Senate with a 279-303 prez map

Lol

Unless you think Moore or Gaetz will be the nominee
AL is

Safe R with Generic R
Lean R with Moore
Likely R with Gaetz


Lol

IA is basically Likely R, and Trump has a good shot to win IA by double digits, I mean Dems could win it in a 2008 redux, but the truth is IA is Likely R, Ernst is Likely R, Axne and Finkenauer are very vulnerable


It is very unlikely for Dems to pick up the Senate, they have lots of seats to target (NC, ME, GA, TX). but actually winning these seats is a whoe different story, if you believe MJ Hegar can win TX while Trunp carries it, then, surely Cory Gardner can win CO, even if Trump loses it by 7 points, right, the short answer is “NO!”, because, Trump defines politics now, and there are some places that are willing to overlook the Trump factor (WI-03, MN-07), but they are few and far between, and TX is not one of then (neither is CO), ME is an example of one, but Susan Collins is a moderate, popular incumbent, whose seat will flip as soon as she retires, and she’ll have a reduced margin this time anyway, but still win by high single digits to low double digits

[S019]

Dems won AZ congressional seats and TX congressional seats in 2018 while losing statewide office.

Yes, it was a Dem +8 year, but Dems lost OH, FL and IA gubernatorial elections.

Charlie Cook had TX tossup last time around and AZ as well. The Senate can be won. But to say Collins can win in ME while Dem carries the state, but Dems cant win TX, the last poll had it a 47 tie in AZ and TX. No polling un AL.

Dems are doing well in 2019Gov races in KY, MS and LA. We like our chances in AL-Sen

If you believe Charlie Cook’s ratings, do you really believe CO is Lean R, or that Gary Peters and Jeanne Shaheen are Safe D, NM Senate is not Safe D, or that KS and/or TN are not Safe R

Also Cook’s final 2018 ratings had NJ and TN as tossups, WV as Lean D (it was close enough to be a tossup), which do not line up with the final results

When Louise Slaughter died, he rated her Safe D seat as Likely D, he rated the Safe D Philadelphia seat vacated by Pat Meehan as Likely D


In 2020, he has rated like Torres Small, Cunningham, and Horn, tossups, when it is clear that their wins were flukes. He has also rated Collin Peterson as Lean d, even though it’s clear that, that race should be rated as a tossup

[S019]

Also don't forget CO where there is a huge recruitmenr failure, forcing Dems to spend tons of moneyC which I'd rather they spend there than AZ, NC, or MI

[S019]

Stevens is gone in 2020, Spanberger probably loses, Luria is a poor Tossup, Sherrill strikes me as overrated, I live in Morris County, she probably won't win it again, her support in Montclair, the Oranges, Little Falls, and the Essex and Passaic part of the district will get her reelected, I doubt she wins by more than 6-7 and could lose on a good night for Republicans

[S019]

Note how Cruz basically got his final percentage, if Cornyn gets 48%, I don't think he wins