Name a current Atlas trope that really, really, really won't age well

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don't mean joke tropes like #BlueKansas. Relatively consensus opinions that could look absolutely ridiculous the day after the election in 2020.

I plan on bumping this on 4 Nov 2020.

I'll start: Texas will be competitive. (I hope this one is correct, but it's probably gonna look silly.)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'll start: Texas will be competitive. (I hope this one is correct, but it's probably gonna look silly.)

What does "competitive" mean?  I think the Republican MOV in Texas will be right around 5%.  Does that count as competitive?

Anyway, I think Georgia will be the closest state, but current consensus seems to be that Trump will win it easily.

A MOV of 5% would be competitive if, retrospectively, there was any chance of Democrats winning it. If every poll was indicating a MOV between 5% and 8%, and it ends up being 5%, that's not competitive.

If the GOP needs to sweat out Texas because the Democrats have a real chance and are holding rallies in Dallas and Austin, and it ends up being 5% because Trump did better than expected nationwide, I would consider that competitive.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Lean R Wisconsin

This, more specifically that Wisconsin will vote 5+ points to the right of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and will even vote right of Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Also, of course, that Nevada is a true swing state, and that Oregon is trending Republican or only "Likely D."

There is no current opinion about Wisconsin that will age well, because Wisconsin has a history of defying any analysis or even logic.

Hillary led outside the MoE in literally every poll in Wisconsin from March up through October.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

3.’’Warren will defeat Trump in a landslide’’
4.’’Trump will lose the PV by double digits’’

Are these really that prevalent, though? I think the conventional Atlas wisdom is that Trump is very likely to lose the PV, but not by double digits. And I haven't seen anyone claim Warren will win in a landslide, simply that she'd have a good chance of beating Trump. If anything, it seems "Warren is unelectable/would lose in a landslide" is a more common belief here than that she'd win in a landslide.

It's more likely that the hand-wringing over Trump's huge advantage, incumbency, muh economy, and muh 42% floor will look like a bunch of bed-wetting when a scandal-ridden, disgraced Trump gets walloped in the general election, helped by an independent conservative ticket siphoning GOP votes from "concerned conservatives."

If there's anything that could make all the 2020 election threads of the past two years look ridiculous, that would be it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The idea that ANY Democratic candidate will do significantly better or worse than any other.

The moment there's a presumptive nominee, their poll numbers will go way up, and after the Milwaukee convention, they will climb further still, as the party and anyone who's sick and tired of the last four years jumps on the bandwagon.

I think if there's one mistake everyone here, me included, is making, it's looking at 2020 through a 2016 lens. Access Hollywood conditioned us to believe that nothing Trump could do would ever erode his support. Applying 2016 logic to Ukrainegate is a fundamental error. This is not 2016. I'm not saying Ukrainegate is definitely going to sink Trump, but it will be wrong to think it'll just slide right off because muh divided electorate.

At this point four years ago, only hardcore GOPers and Dem bedwetters thought Hillary's email server was a serious threat to her campaign.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump has a >50% chance of re-election is the big one for me.

Also:

-Likely R FL
-Lean R WI
-AZ will vote significantly to the left of WI
-MI as a key swing state
-NV and especially NH as totally uncompetitive
-Candidate quality is easily predictable 1+ year from election
-Ukrainegate will hurt Biden in the Dem primary
-Everyone who isn't Warren and Biden should just drop out now
-The Democratic convention will be contested (not a trope now afaik but it will probably pop back up)
-In general, too much certainty as to what the map will look like

The actual 2016 map would have gotten big laughs in September 2015.

"WTF is this? Scott Walker vs. Martin O'Malley?"

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

That Collin Peterson's district is Safe Republican. Anyone here go to FarmFest this past month? The farmers are all stressed out and want this trade war to end. And then here comes Michelle Fischbach, who can't name the basic price of soy and supports Trump's trade war. How is that Safe Republican when the Democrat is the chair of the Ag committee?

#OddlySpecific

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This thread is everything I hoped it would be.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I agree with many listed in the thread thus far. But one that I don't think gets brought up enough is that the trade war will cost Trump massively in Iowa and Minnesota among swing voters. The Democratic nominee will embrace a trade agenda most likely being very close to Trump. The idea that most will defect to Democrats after they were Obama/Trump simply based on trade is nonsense. Many of these people voted for Trump because of his protectionism and tough trade stance. I'll call this 'muh trade war' fallacy whenever people use this argument.

I have to say though some of these 'tropes' being listed are just made up strawmen that nobody actually believes.

Iowa has a history of pragmatic voting and trending radically against the nation when they find their livelihoods threatened. They broke hugely for Trump precisely because they thought his tough line on fighting trade inequalities would help their bottom line, and so far, the opposite has been true. Whether Iowans are willing to stick it out, hoping something will change, or abandon the entire experiment, is a legitimate question to ask.

I can see the argument that after only four years they will be reluctant to backtrack on a decision they made so resoundingly, but I wouldn't just dismiss it as "muh trade war." Trump approval in Iowa is just as abysmal as it is nationwide, and that demands some sort of explanation.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Both of these:

White voters will continue flocking to the GOP in droves, making WI, OH, IA, and MN into permanent red states.

White working class voters will turn on Trump bigly, creating a massive blue wave across the Midwest.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

I too lived in inner city Indianopolis and Bloomington

KS is safe D after talking to all my friends in Lawrence.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A lot of the things being mentioned aren't "tropes" so much as "something a random troll TrendsAreReal said once."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

Elizabeth Warren will win Hamilton County on a platform of free roundabouts for all Americans.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

Elizabeth Warren will win Hamilton County on a platform of free roundabouts for all Americans.

Half of Atlas is unironically convinced that Hamilton County is Lean D, so I'm not sure what you're mocking.

Seriously?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=334882.msg6966109#msg6966109

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

Elizabeth Warren will win Hamilton County on a platform of free roundabouts for all Americans.

Half of Atlas is unironically convinced that Hamilton County is Lean D, so I'm not sure what you're mocking.

Seriously?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=334882.msg6966109#msg6966109

Well, more than half of atlas believe, according the poll you’re refering that Trump will win less than 55% of the vote in Hamilton County, which is quite crazy to be honest.

Trump won 56% in 2016. Why is a <2% swing "quite crazy?"

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

How is it crazy to think that Hamilton could swing *a little bit* Democratic? If the Democrats win the PV by more, that wouldn't even necessarily translate to a Democratic trend in the county. If people were actually arguing that Hamilton would flip, then sure, that would be crazy, but I don't think anyone has come close to predicting that. Yeah, not every trend is guaranteed to continue to the same extent as in 2016, but almost no one is arguing that this will happen.

Because over the past century you won’t find even one election where Hamilton county voted to the left of Indiana, even in 2016 Hamilton county was a bit to the right of the state as whole.
So if Trump is really under 55% in Hamilton it would mean he is around 55/54% in Indiana as whole, which would translate into a landslide defeat nationwide (the kind of defeat where he loses GA and OH).

You clearly have not studied Indiana.

20 years ago Indiana consisted of "Business Republicans" concentrated in the areas around Indianapolis, and "quasi-dixiecrats" in the rural south. Rural counties in the south have massively trended R, while the Indy area has massively trended D. The GOP base in Indiana is becoming more and more working class, while wealthy suburbs are going from overwhelmingly Republican to slightly Republican.

1996:



2016:



Having Hamilton County trend another 2 points to the left of the state is not at all unrealistic given the long-term trends in the state.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Sorry but I know a few things about Indiana politics (I even read something the Howeypolitics Blog)

I know all these trends, and yeah, I know that Hamilton county was once +70% R and I also know these days are not coming back. Now it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins Hamilton let’s say 54/44 and wins Indiana 58/40, if Trump is winning Hamilton 54/44, he is winning Indiana 56/42 (at the best) and he is getting trounced 45/53 nationwide. Possible ? Yeah. Probable ? Unlikely

This drifted off the topic of "half of Atlas says Hamilton County is lean D because trends." Why have the goalposts suddenly moved?

These numbers are muddied by the complete unknown of third party performance. If a Libertarian ticket does as well as it did in 2016, Trump will probably fail to break 55%, even while gaining ground in Indiana as a whole. If there is no alternative to Trump on the right, if this is a 1% Lib year, then Trump certainly will do better than 55%.

But since we're dealing with unknowns, the idea of Trump failing to break 55% in Hamilton County is not a crazy idea.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Sorry but I know a few things about Indiana politics (I even read something the Howeypolitics Blog)

I know all these trends, and yeah, I know that Hamilton county was once +70% R and I also know these days are not coming back. Now it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins Hamilton let’s say 54/44 and wins Indiana 58/40, if Trump is winning Hamilton 54/44, he is winning Indiana 56/42 (at the best) and he is getting trounced 45/53 nationwide. Possible ? Yeah. Probable ? Unlikely

This drifted off the topic of "half of Atlas says Hamilton County is lean D because trends." Why have the goalposts suddenly moved?

These numbers are muddied by the complete unknown of third party performance. If a Libertarian ticket does as well as it did in 2016, Trump will probably fail to break 55%, even while gaining ground in Indiana as a whole. If there is no alternative to Trump on the right, if this is a 1% Lib year, then Trump certainly will do better than 55%.

But since we're dealing with unknowns, the idea of Trump failing to break 55% in Hamilton County is not a crazy idea.

Yeah, sure if third parties collect a even greater share of the vote than in 2016 Trump winning Hamilton 54/36 for example (and thus being held under 55%) is probably but I doubt that third parties will do so well.

Hamilton going 54/41/5 while Indiana goes 56/40/4 is not out of the question. It would probably mean Trump is losing nationally 51/45/4, but I consider that well within the range of reasonable outcomes.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's one: Tipping point Wisconsin.

That state is so hard to read, but there are a number of really bad signs for him:
1. A suppressed Dem vote in 2016 due to assumptions of a Hillary victory
2. GOP Congressional candidates distancing themselves in 2018 campaigns
3. The Dairy crisis
4. His approvals are worse than the they are nationwide.
5. It's Wisconsin. They defy logic.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's one: Tipping point Wisconsin.

That state is so hard to read, but there are a number of really bad signs for him:
1. A suppressed Dem vote in 2016 due to assumptions of a Hillary victory
2. GOP Congressional candidates distancing themselves in 2018 campaigns
3. The Dairy crisis
4. His approvals are worse than the they are nationwide.
5. It's Wisconsin. They defy logic.

If WI moves to the left, then what's your tipping point state? PA?

Most likely tipping point states other than Wisconsin:
1. Pennsylvania
2. Arizona
3. Florida

My gut says that in a very close election, WI trends left, but if it's a comfortable win for the Democrats, WI will be the tipping point yet again.

But my WI predictions have been wrong more than any other state. In 2004 it was the only state I got wrong. And I lived in Wisconsin for 18 years. Anyone who says they know what's going to happen there is lying.