2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[SingingAnalyst]

Assuming current numbers hold up (Biden wins GA, NV, PA; Trump wins AK and NC; Biden wins 306-232):
1. This is the first election since 1992 in which GA voted Dem while FL voted GOP.
2. This is only the third election since 1948 in which AZ voted Dem.
3. This is the first time since ME and NE began allocating EVs by congressional district that both states were split. (NE alone was split in 2008 and ME alone was split in 2016).
4. I'm sure there are other firsts or first-in-a-whiles.

[SingingAnalyst]

Why are 25-29 year olds much more republican than 18-24 year old? Seems weird

So much for the “conservative zoomers” meme. I guess not ALL the memes came true after all.

I am wondering the same thing. 25-39 y/o trended GOP, while 18-24 and 40 and older trended D. I can understand 65+ trending D because of COVID, but the others I cannot think of an explanation for.

Also, the gender gap is smaller this year, particularly among whites. White men in their 50s, who gave Reagan and Trump such commanding majorities, appear to have trended D this election.

[SingingAnalyst]

Spent a bit of time looking into NY. Looks like Biden is on pace to do around 5-7 points better than Clinton in non-NYC portion of state, but 4-6 points worse than Clinton in NYC. Balances out to NY swinging about 2% overall.

I noticed that too. Trump's percentage in the Bronx is nearly double what it was in 2016 (about 17% vs. 9%). Any idea why that is? Trump improved in Manhattan too (from 10% to 15%).

Trump did carry Niagara County by 19 points, however. Niagara County, economically depressed due to the misfortune of being located on the wrong side of Niagara Falls, had voted for Carter in 1980 after the Love Canal environmental disaster, but has trended Republican since the Bill Clinton era ended.

[SingingAnalyst]

When is the last time a Democrat was elected President without winning at least two of Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Texas? Biden didn't win any.

Obama won FL and OH both times.
Clinton was MO and OH in 1992 and added FL in 1996.
Carter won all four in 1976.
Kennedy won MO and TX.
Truman won all four.
FDR won all four in 1932 and 1936, and at least 3 each in 1940 and 1944.

Also: is this the first time that more than one state split their EVs?

If Kamala Harris becomes President, she will not only be the first woman President, she will be the first President born on another President's death date (Herbert Hoover's).

[SingingAnalyst]

When is the last time a Democrat was elected President without winning at least two of Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Texas? Biden didn't win any.

Obama won FL and OH both times.
Clinton was MO and OH in 1992 and added FL in 1996.
Carter won all four in 1976.
Kennedy won MO and TX.
Truman won all four.
FDR won all four in 1932 and 1936, and at least 3 each in 1940 and 1944.

Also: is this the first time that more than one state split their EVs?

If Kamala Harris becomes President, she will not only be the first woman President, she will be the first President born on another President's death date (Herbert Hoover's).

Wow I had no idea president Herbert Hoover lived that long
So not only did he outlive JFK he also died the same year Kamala Harris was born

Yes, and on the same date, October 20th. Hoover lived to be 90.