Ontario 2018 election

[2952-0-0]

Do newspaper editorials or Bay Street have any effect on voters? Remember how in the 2015 federal election, virtually the entire print media endorsed the Harper Conservatives? And remember how, in the last days before the 2015 Alberta election, a collection of big oil execs held a press conference warning about the NDP?

[King of Kensington]

I don't see a 1990 type reaction to an NDP victory from business. The Globe and Mail has actually been pretty fair in their reportage this election (they've been far more critical of Ford).

I think the Globe will call for something like Conservative minority and dump Ford.

[King of Kensington]

Do newspaper editorials or Bay Street have any effect on voters? Remember how in the 2015 federal election, virtually the entire print media endorsed the Harper Conservatives? And remember how, in the last days before the 2015 Alberta election, a collection of big oil execs held a press conference warning about the NDP?

Not really.  I think the Star endorsement of the NDP helped them in the GTA a bit though, made it seem like a more "acceptable" option in a lot of areas where they weren't traditionally in contention.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it pretty likely the Star will endorse the NDP?

Do newspaper editorials or Bay Street have any effect on voters? Remember how in the 2015 federal election, virtually the entire print media endorsed the Harper Conservatives? And remember how, in the last days before the 2015 Alberta election, a collection of big oil execs held a press conference warning about the NDP?

I don't expect Bay Street will go bananas either. I think the backlash from the public if they tried what they did with Rae would discredit them with large swaths of the public. The big difference is we have the internet now, and the public is more connected... even if it's just within our bubbles.

[King of Kensington]

The thing is too most of the Bay St. types don't see a major difference between the Liberals under Kathleen Wynne and the NDP either.  But then they also see Ford as a buffoon.

The Globe and Mail's Marcus Gee seems to express this view:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-what-on-earth-is-the-responsible-ontario-voter-to-do/

[adma]

  But the leap from there to the conclusion that NDP would have enough votes to win, against an incumbent who won the old Prince Edward Hastings riding with 60% last time, would imho require the PC numbers to start falling significantly.

Actually, Todd Smith won PE-H with 41.63% last time.  (32.73 Lib, 19.13 NDP, 5.31 Green)

[adma]

I feel like individual candidates don't swing the vote too much outside their riding unless they do something really awful like the "lake of fire" guy in Alberta. Most people in Canada vote based on the party they want to win, not on local candidates.

Lawton is pretty horrible.

Definitely agreed. He might be the only one that really has an impact outside his riding, and even then it won't be like the "lake of fire" guy who made a lot of fiscal conservative and social moderal/liberal voters freaked out about Wildrose.

"Posthumously", Tanya Granic Allen counts.  And in a way, her clumsily handled dismissal as a candidate (coupled with the fact that DoFo pretty much owes his leadership to her support) probably marked the moment when the PCs' "smooth campaign operation" started short-circuiting.

And of course, now we're dealing with bozo nominations, as opposed to bozo candidates; with KingaSurmaGate revealing DoFo himself as arguably the biggest bozo of them all.  (Though given his municipal record, it's arguable that that's much of a "revelation".)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

One thing I have been wondering about is if the Liberals would be doing better with a different leader. While I imagine the OLP would still be trailing I would imagine they would probably be around 28% or so and might have an ok shot of re-election.

[King of Kensington]

Worth a read:

https://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/can-the-ndp-break-through-again-in-eastern-ontario

[Hatman 🍁]

According to this article: https://globalnews.ca/news/4228557/david-akin-20-closest-ridings-ontario/ the NDP is also targeting Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock and Ottawa South. I've started seeing the NDP numbers go up in the first two ridings, so that's believable (although hard to fathom from a historical perspective), but Ottawa South... I just can't see it. I'm not active on the local campaign this time, so I can't tell if there really is momentum, but they do claim an impressive number of volunteers and have apparently run out of signs. Anecdotally I do know I haven't been canvassed or seen any literature in my mailbox (yet). I haven't seen many signs either, though I live on the edge of the riding, so haven't ventured much into the nieghbourhoods (which I plan to do at some point before e-Day).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could Jim Bradley lose?

[King of Kensington]

Could Jim Bradley lose?

I think so.  He's never run in an election where the Liberals were the third place party.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Could Jim Bradley lose?

I think so.  He's never run in an election where the Liberals were the third place party.

How strong of an incumbent is he?

[PeteB]

Could Jim Bradley lose?

I think so.  He's never run in an election where the Liberals were the third place party.

How strong of an incumbent is he?

I've dealt with Jim on some other business matters and my perception was always that he had a huge local stature and wide community support. That is important down in Niagara and, had you asked whether he can lose a few weeks ago, I would have said NO. Now, however, I think that St. Catharines is wide open to both PC and NDP. If the Liberals manage to keep 15-20 seats though (and I know I am in a minority here, even thinking that), I wouldn't be surprised to see Bradley's as one of them.

[Linus Van Pelt]

According to this article: https://globalnews.ca/news/4228557/david-akin-20-closest-ridings-ontario/ the NDP is also targeting Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock and Ottawa South. I've started seeing the NDP numbers go up in the first two ridings, so that's believable (although hard to fathom from a historical perspective), but Ottawa South... I just can't see it. I'm not active on the local campaign this time, so I can't tell if there really is momentum, but they do claim an impressive number of volunteers and have apparently run out of signs. Anecdotally I do know I haven't been canvassed or seen any literature in my mailbox (yet). I haven't seen many signs either, though I live on the edge of the riding, so haven't ventured much into the nieghbourhoods (which I plan to do at some point before e-Day).

For all our talk of the differences between eastern and southwestern Ontario, a lot of the non-GTA areas between, say, roughly Kingston and London are honestly pretty similar. Some of the "eastern" and "southwestern" stereotypes really apply more to the geographical extremes, the automotive rust belt between London and Windsor and the traditional Loyalist + French areas in the Ottawa & St. Lawrence valleys.

So if (big "if", of course) the NDP is really getting a 1990-style rural working class vote again, and breaking out of just Chatham and Essex, I don't think Hastings or Haliburton are that much more surprising than similar ridings west of Toronto.

[adma]

Also re "historical perspective": both HLA and HKLB went NDP in 1990, and both have (in redistribution) 20%+ 2014 figures.  So while there may not be much of an *elected* history, there's a history of relatively decent (under the circumstances) results--the sort that can be the  base of a wave...

[Hatman 🍁]

I really didn't expect a 1990 style coalition to develop behind the NDP, but the more I'm hearing, the more I think it is the actual easiest path for the NDP to win government.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's look at the 1990 map, shall we?



In the north, you can see that individual candidates mattered a lot in terms of riding the NDP didn't win and this time the same will be true with Fidelli in Nipissing and Gravelle and Mauro in Thunder Bay.

You saw a bit of this in the SW too like in Essex South or London North. This won't be a problem this time. The strongest Liberal incumbents in the region aren't running for re-election. I can definitely see the NDP winning most of the ridings from Huron County down to Elgin County just like in 1990.

In the Grand River Valley, we're again seeing a possibility of the NDP winning most of the ridings. Cambridge was their best seat in 1990, but this time may be one of the harder ridings to win, mainly because it is now a Liberal riding with a PC history.

In Hamilton/Niagara, again quite possibly the NDP will win almost every seat there just like in 1990. Unlike 1990 though, the NDP could even beat Jim Bradley in St. Catharines.

In the Georgian Bay area, the NDP managed to win two seats in 1990, even cracking 40% is Muskoka-Georgian Bay. Perhaps the NDP can do quite well  this time in Barrie just like in 1990, but with the city split into two rurban ridings, I don't see them winning either one.

In Halton/Peel, the NDP won one riding in 1990 (Halton North), which won't happen again as Halton is one giant exurb, which means it's a dead zone for the NDP. At the time, the area was more rural/small town. HOWEVER, the NDP has a big chance at winning a mitt full of seats in Brampton due to the South Asian population there, which wasn't a factor in 1990 (and I'm sure the South Asians that were there at the time were voting Liberal).  This is probably the biggest difference between the 1990 and 2018 NDP coalitions.

In York, the NDP won one seat (York-Durham) which at the time was a small town/rural riding. The rest of York was a dead zone for the party, as will be the case this time. However, in neighbouring Durham, the NDP swept the region. While I don't think the NDP will win ridings like Ajax or Pickering, they do have a shot at Durham and even Whitby, thanks to the influence of Oshawa.

Within the 416, we again see some similar patterns to 1990. The big difference between then and now is the 'Ford factor', which will give the PCs Etobicoke North (the NDP's best riding in Toronto in 1990!) and a few Scarborough ridings, where they didn't win any in 1990. The Tories back then were more of a wealthy WASPy type party, and won just two seats: wealthy York Mills (now in Don Valley West) and Willowdale. Fast forward to 2018 and these seats could be Liberal holdouts, though at this point it is becoming increasingly unlikely. Anyway,  back to the NDP coalition: while the NDP isn't going to win the two Etobicoke seats they won in 1990, they could possibly win next-door Humber River-Black Creek like they did in 1990 (then called Yorkview) and some seats in southern Scarborough, again like they did in 1990. They may even win Scarborough North, which went Liberal in 1990 due to the Tamil population there. In central Toronto, the NDP won almost every seat in 1990, and may do so again this time. Heck, they even won what is now St. Paul's, and low and behold we are now learning they're competitive even there!

OK, back to central Ontario now, and it seems every seat the NDP won in 1990 is on the table for 2018. Haliburton down to Hastings. And the one riding they don't seem to be competitive in there is Northumberland-Peterborough South, which just so happened to be a Liberal hold out in 1990.

And finally Eastern Ontario, where the NDP won just three seats in 1990: Ottawa Centre, Kingston and Frontenac-Addington. And it seems the NDP may end up with just Ottawa Centre and Kingston this time (Frontenac-Addington doesn't really exist on today's map). Amazing!

[ON Progressive]

Since we were speaking about Oxford a few pages back, I decided to calculate some 2014 #s for Woodstock/Ingersoll.

Woodstock went 41% PC, 27.7% NDP, 25.1% Liberal, 4.2% Green, 1.9% Others
Ingersoll went 39% NDP, 33.7% PC, 18% Liberal, 7.5% Green, 1.8% Others

Interesting that the Greens were relatively strong in Ingersoll. I imagine the Green candidate must have been from there.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

If anyone is interested I calculated the Toronto regional results from 2011 Federally on the current map and got:

Liberal 34.84%
Conservative 31.09%
 NDP 30.38%
Green 3.18%
Other 0.51%

With the Liberals possibly falling in third in Toronto it’s going to be tough for them to hold on to several of their current seats.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--o2KlbsZxgMCjJV5bxZmY4CvvaYUTJbBnkyrjy5FjE

[DC Al Fine]

If anyone is interested I calculated the Toronto regional results from 2011 Federally on the current map and got:

Liberal 34.84%
Conservative 31.09%
 NDP 30.38%
Green 3.18%
Other 0.51%

With the Liberals possibly falling in third in Toronto it’s going to be tough for them to hold on to several of their current seats.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--o2KlbsZxgMCjJV5bxZmY4CvvaYUTJbBnkyrjy5FjE

Agreed. They need to hope that there is some significant variation in the swing within Toronto. If their Etobicoke/Scarborough vote craters and they only suffer a minor decrease in Don Valley/Old Toronto, they might salvage a resepectable caucus. If they decline evenly, they'll be in Kim Campbell territory.

[DL]

If anyone is interested I calculated the Toronto regional results from 2011 Federally on the current map and got:

Liberal 34.84%
Conservative 31.09%
 NDP 30.38%
Green 3.18%
Other 0.51%

With the Liberals possibly falling in third in Toronto it’s going to be tough for them to hold on to several of their current seats.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--o2KlbsZxgMCjJV5bxZmY4CvvaYUTJbBnkyrjy5FjE

Interestingly the only three ridings the Liberals would have won comfortably in 2011 on this map were Etobicoke North (certain to go PC), Scarborough agincourt (almost certain to go Pc this time) and Humber. Alley. Mack Creek ( certain to go NDP)

[King of Kensington]

Agreed. They need to hope that there is some significant variation in the swing within Toronto. If their Etobicoke/Scarborough vote craters and they only suffer a minor decrease in Don Valley/Old Toronto, they might salvage a resepectable caucus. If they decline evenly, they'll be in Kim Campbell territory.

Yeah, I suspect it's uneven as well.  The Liberals not going to win the city's NW or likely anything in Scarborough this time. The best they can hope for is the "John Tory Liberal" constituency holding out.

[King of Kensington]

I really didn't expect a 1990 style coalition to develop behind the NDP, but the more I'm hearing, the more I think it is the actual easiest path for the NDP to win government.

How many rural and "rurban" seats are winnable when the right-wing vote and the anti-NDP vote is more or less united behind the PCs?  How many do they need realistically to win government?

[cp]

Not that I'm saying it'll matter in the end, but Bay of Quinte is the most likely seat the "poppy" issue will cost the NDP - if there's one.

I saw The National Post made something over that.  Maybe they should stop posting articles from disgraced convicted felon Conrad Black before they judge other people.

Is he still relevant? I know he went apesh*t when Bob Rae got elected and maybe single handily played a role in bringing down the NDP government. How will Bay Street react if the NDP wins this time?

He did?! What's the source on that?

If true, I wish I'd known that a couple years ago when I was at a conference with the two of them