Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

Really Interesting discussion here

https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/the-changing-minds-of-ontario-voters

Erin Kelly of Advanced Symbolics on their polling
14 ridings that the NDP needs to win, and can swing the NDP to gov't, only need a 5 point swing of PC voters to the NDP. NONE are named but Bay of Quinte, which is now described as PCvsNDP seat.

I heard it this morning - a very interesting perspective.  But the bottom line is that Erin (or "Polly" ) is not confident of calling the election because of the large number of undecideds.

[mileslunn]

If the numbers hold and Ford gets a majority but loses the popular vote, any thoughts if this will play a big role in promoting electoral reform.  PCs won't change it, but bet whenever they lose it will be changed.  By contrast if Ford does much better than polls suggest and wins a majority with over 40% (seems less and less likely by the day) the issue won't matter.

[PeteB]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

[PeteB]

An interesting article in the SF Chronicle:

https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Rob-Ford-s-brother-tests-a-Canadian-brand-of-12943899.php

[mileslunn]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

Not necessarily a better way to look at it is look what the Tories got.  Provincewide they got 35.1% in the last federal election which is not far off what they are polling now so if the 65.7% who voted for progressive parties went mostly NDP they could win here.  Off course PCs have an incumbent MPP which probably helps a bit.

[PeteB]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

Not necessarily a better way to look at it is look what the Tories got.  Provincewide they got 35.1% in the last federal election which is not far off what they are polling now so if the 65.7% who voted for progressive parties went mostly NDP they could win here.  Off course PCs have an incumbent MPP which probably helps a bit.

If you look at the 2014 transposed results (courtesy of electionprediction.org) PC had 39%, Liberals 38% and NDP 17%.  While that still means that there is a potential majority against the Tories, it's a huge leap to assume that ALL of these Liberal voters (in a reasonably conservative area of Ontario) would suddenly jump in bed with the NDP.  If even 25% of the Liberal voters chose the PC (or if a minority of the former Liberal voters just abstained), the Tories would hold the seat.

I could more easily imagine the Liberals potentially winning Bay of Quinte, by getting all the anti-PC vote, but not right now when they are in a freefall.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

[lilTommy]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

Not necessarily a better way to look at it is look what the Tories got.  Provincewide they got 35.1% in the last federal election which is not far off what they are polling now so if the 65.7% who voted for progressive parties went mostly NDP they could win here.  Off course PCs have an incumbent MPP which probably helps a bit.

If you look at the 2014 transposed results (courtesy of electionprediction.org) PC had 39%, Liberals 38% and NDP 17%.  While that still means that there is a potential majority against the Tories, it's a huge leap to assume that ALL of these Liberal voters (in a reasonably conservative area of Ontario) would suddenly jump in bed with the NDP.  If even 25% of the Liberal voters chose the PC (or if a minority of the former Liberal voters just abstained), the Tories would hold the seat.

I could more easily imagine the Liberals potentially winning Bay of Quinte, by getting all the anti-PC vote, but not right now when they are in a freefall.

If we look at the Innovative Research poll
https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

among the OLP, 50% have the NDP as second choice, and only 12% have the PCs as second.
There are PC-NDP voters, Innovative here has it as about 8%.
But if the PC is losing votes, as Forum has it, from 40% - 33%, that has to be seen in riding's like this. So I can see, that Yes this riding is becoming a battleground because of a number of factors (OLP collapse, PC trending down, popular NDP leader/policies)

[PeteB]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

[lilTommy]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

But lets look at the context of 2011 vs 2015

NDP - 23%/12%  -11
Liberal - 20%/50% +30
Cons - 52%/34% - 18

Big shifts can happen here, its not out of scope to say the NDP can win here now when in 2015 the Liberals went from third to winning and gaining 30%. The NDP momentum now is not that far off of the Trudeau momentum in 2015.

[Wisconsin+17]

Could someone please shop me up an avatar of Tanya Granic Allen doing the 'bye bitch'?

[Wisconsin+17]

https://tenor.com/view/pocahontas-bye-bitch-gif-7394164

[PeteB]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

But lets look at the context of 2011 vs 2015

NDP - 23%/12%  -11
Liberal - 20%/50% +30
Cons - 52%/34% - 18

Big shifts can happen here, its not out of scope to say the NDP can win here now when in 2015 the Liberals went from third to winning and gaining 30%. The NDP momentum now is not that far off of the Trudeau momentum in 2015.

It certainly CAN happen.  I am just sceptical, with the PC vote pretty much holding steady in the polls, about Bay of Quinte being that riding.  I am sure that the majority of former Liberal voters in the riding prefer the NDP to the PC, and I am sure that some of them will actually even bother enough to come out and vote for the NDP.  But the leap from there to the conclusion that NDP would have enough votes to win, against an incumbent who won the old Prince Edward Hastings riding with 60% last time, would imho require the PC numbers to start falling significantly.

In my book, NDP would have to take 4 or 5 Ottawa ridings, before they start taking rural ridings in the East, like this one, and I am not yet seeing any indication of that happening.  Tbh I am not even convinced yet that they can take Ottawa Centre from Naqvi.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

That was just me being a snarky dick.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

But lets look at the context of 2011 vs 2015

NDP - 23%/12%  -11
Liberal - 20%/50% +30
Cons - 52%/34% - 18

Big shifts can happen here, its not out of scope to say the NDP can win here now when in 2015 the Liberals went from third to winning and gaining 30%. The NDP momentum now is not that far off of the Trudeau momentum in 2015.

It certainly CAN happen.  I am just sceptical, with the PC vote pretty much holding steady in the polls, about Bay of Quinte being that riding.  I am sure that the majority of former Liberal voters in the riding prefer the NDP to the PC, and I am sure that some of them will actually even bother enough to come out and vote for the NDP.  But the leap from there to the conclusion that NDP would have enough votes to win, against an incumbent who won the old Prince Edward Hastings riding with 60% last time, would imho require the PC numbers to start falling significantly.

In my book, NDP would have to take 4 or 5 Ottawa ridings, before they start taking rural ridings in the East, like this one, and I am not yet seeing any indication of that happening.  Tbh I am not even convinced yet that they can take Ottawa Centre from Naqvi.

Bay of Quinte isn't particularly rural. 75% of the population lives in either Belleville or Quinte West (Trenton).

[PeteB]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

That was just me being a snarky dick.

It's Friday - snarky dick works !

[136or142]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

That was just me being a snarky dick.

It's Friday - snarky dick works !

"Friday" was Bob Dylan's best song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FISHEO3gsM

Not to go too off topic, but the youtube comments are an example to me of the creativity of average people:

"Gotta get down on Friday" is an obvious observation of the troops in Vietnam whom were dodging gunfire and bombardment... "Sitting in the back seat" is a willingness to appreciate the struggle of Rosa Parks and the whole Civil Rights Movement... A beautiful and spiritual song really.

----
I remember hearing this song in Vietnam. Me and my Buddies, sat around this radio. We would hear things like CCR play, but Dylan always got the guys going.
We were just a bunch of kids back then, in mens Uniforms. But that night, when I first heard this song, it felt like we were all part of something bigger. Something else.

----
I like in the beginning of the song where Dylan sings "everybody's Russian" I like how that lyric really captures the fear and paranoia of the Cold War during the 1960's

[King of Kensington]

Not that I'm saying it'll matter in the end, but Bay of Quinte is the most likely seat the "poppy" issue will cost the NDP - if there's one.

[136or142]

Not that I'm saying it'll matter in the end, but Bay of Quinte is the most likely seat the "poppy" issue will cost the NDP - if there's one.

I saw The National Post made something over that.  Maybe they should stop posting articles from disgraced convicted felon Conrad Black before they judge other people.

[King of Kensington]

Ford sure doesn't like this Forum poll

https://twitter.com/JohnLorinc/status/1000098044531036160

[Hatman 🍁]

Not that I'm saying it'll matter in the end, but Bay of Quinte is the most likely seat the "poppy" issue will cost the NDP - if there's one.

I saw The National Post made something over that.  Maybe they should stop posting articles from disgraced convicted felon Conrad Black before they judge other people.

Is he still relevant? I know he went apesh*t when Bob Rae got elected and maybe single handily played a role in bringing down the NDP government. How will Bay Street react if the NDP wins this time?

[PeteB]

Ford sure doesn't like this Forum poll

https://twitter.com/JohnLorinc/status/1000098044531036160

Dear John letter... how quaint...

I was commenting on how Andrea Horwath has problems with her candidates. Ford on the other hand has no problems...he is a one man show...from campaign planning...to execution... to writing letters to the pollsters..?!?

There is a case to be made that the Forum poll was an outlier, but this is NOT how to make it! Nor is this how to run a campaign - we'll see if it hurts him.

[_]

Ford sure doesn't like this Forum poll

https://twitter.com/JohnLorinc/status/1000098044531036160

That just makes it look like they're panicking.

[PeteB]

Not that I'm saying it'll matter in the end, but Bay of Quinte is the most likely seat the "poppy" issue will cost the NDP - if there's one.

I saw The National Post made something over that.  Maybe they should stop posting articles from disgraced convicted felon Conrad Black before they judge other people.

Is he still relevant? I know he went apesh*t when Bob Rae got elected and maybe single handily played a role in bringing down the NDP government. How will Bay Street react if the NDP wins this time?

We'll see the Bay Street reaction in a week. Andrea Horwath was with the G&M editorial board on wednesday. I don't expect the Globe to endorse her but their opinion in that editorial will signal if Bay St. will play ball. Of course, she has to win first.

[MAINEiac4434]

So I put the Forum numbers in TCTC, and it gives the Dips 88 seats, the Progs 33 and the Libs 0.