CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Brittain33]

Walters ticked down a tenth of a point today to 52.6%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Because they avoided a D v. D situation in every notable race except for the Senate Race.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Walters ticked down a tenth of a point today to 52.6%.

If we look look at the overall GOP vote in the district, they're down 16.3 points from 2014.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Because they avoided a D v. D situation in every notable race except for the Senate Race.

Wow, they're willing to garbage dive for any material they can use to "kill" the blue wave narrative that they've set the bar extremely low.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Because they avoided a D v. D situation in every notable race except for the Senate Race.

Wow, they're willing to garbage dive for any material they can use to "kill" the blue wave narrative that they've set the bar extremely low.

Yes, but do you really expect them to just concede that they're going to lose? Many Democrats, including then-DNC chair Tim Kaine, maintained that there was a path to just barely keeping the house in 2010 until the polls had closed. Many Democrats also maintained that there was a path to  keeping the Senate - regardless of who Orman was going to caucus with if he won - until the polls closed in 2014. What the GOP is doing is simply typical electoral strategy - talk up how "well" you're doing however you can, as long as you can, so your base doesn't get super depressed and stay home, making things even worse for you.

[Maxwell]

they got locked out of the lieutenant governors race, and severely under-performed even their already embarrassing 2014 numbers in the gubernatorial race.

[Devout Centrist]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

Ummm no. We have a candidate in every race, the GOP's, not the Dem's, vote share is down across every district, turnout amongst Democrats was sky high, and the Generic ballot was being powered by crappy online polls like Reuters for the past two weeks. I still don't see what the commotion from the right is about California. They got crushed. They don't even have a senate candidate. It seems to me you're concern trolling.

[Devout Centrist]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

Ummm no. We have a candidate in every race, the GOP's, not the Dem's, vote share is down across every district, turnout amongst Democrats was sky high, and the Generic ballot was being powered by crappy online polls like Reuters for the past two weeks. I still don't see what the commotion from the right is about California. They got crushed. They don't even have a senate candidate. It seems to me you're concern trolling.

What are you talking about?? You’re not looking at the numbers! Typical Democratic hack. Wow!

(I’m kidding, dude. I had hoped my post would make it obvious.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

Ummm no. We have a candidate in every race, the GOP's, not the Dem's, vote share is down across every district, turnout amongst Democrats was sky high, and the Generic ballot was being powered by crappy online polls like Reuters for the past two weeks. I still don't see what the commotion from the right is about California. They got crushed. They don't even have a senate candidate. It seems to me you're concern trolling.

What are you talking about?? You’re not looking at the numbers! Typical Democratic hack. Wow!

(I’m kidding, dude. I had hoped my post would make it obvious.)

Oh damn I'm so sorry. I had some sort of feeling that you were joking but I didn't know how to respond.

[Nyvin]

It's even worse on Fox News...there they're pinning Cox's top two win as some glorious victory and how it practically dooms the Democrats in November.   They'll take literally ANYTHING as a big win at this point.

[136or142]

It's even worse on Fox News...there they're pinning Cox's top two win as some glorious victory and how it practically dooms the Democrats in November.   They'll take literally ANYTHING as a big win at this point.

You mean 'pining' as in the famous Monty Python Parrot Sketch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6tQ0218

"It's not pining, it's passed on."

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

Ummm no. We have a candidate in every race, the GOP's, not the Dem's, vote share is down across every district, turnout amongst Democrats was sky high, and the Generic ballot was being powered by crappy online polls like Reuters for the past two weeks. I still don't see what the commotion from the right is about California. They got crushed. They don't even have a senate candidate. It seems to me you're concern trolling.

What are you talking about?? You’re not looking at the numbers! Typical Democratic hack. Wow!

(I’m kidding, dude. I had hoped my post would make it obvious.)

Oh damn I'm so sorry. I had some sort of feeling that you were joking but I didn't know how to respond.

The problem is that there are users who would make all of these arguments in earnest.

[Politician]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Because they avoided a D v. D situation in every notable race except for the Senate Race.

And so did the Democrats. You can't just say the Republicans did "well" since they were almost certain to make every race besides Senate and governor.

[Politician]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Democrats didn’t get locked out of any of the competitive House races in California; Here’s why that could be a bad thing:

1. It means they have to spend money on them

Running for Congress is hard work and now, the DCCC will have to spend money to win these races, money that could be better used to help weak incumbent Senate candidates like Claire McCaskill or Joe Manchin, who now looks likely to lose reelection.

2. Look at how bad Democratic incumbents did

Ami Bera, Jim Costa, Raul Ruiz, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney...the list of Democratic incumbents that underperformed is long. Just because Democrats didn’t get locked out doesn’t mean they will do well this year.

3. Their vote share was weak

With exception to CA-49, Democrats received fewer primary votes in every competitive district, meaning that they will lose in November.

4. Why bother? Gerrymandering means Democrats can’t win

Why try if failure is certain? Democrats should try to protect what they have and hope that compromising with the President will get them to a better place with working class whites.

5. There’s a Republican on the Gubernatorial ballot

This basically means all the Republicans will turn out and Democrats won’t. Yikes.

6. The generic ballot is close and shows that Democrats are losing fluid

Generic ballot polls have tightened in recent months and suggest that Democrats are losing votes; this could mean that they will even lose their close California seats in November. Polls have been fluid and suggest that no side has the advantage.

7. They didn’t get into the runoff for CA-08

Wow. Red Wave inbound.

Looks like Democrats have a lot of work to do before they can celebrate. Most likely, they won’t have much to celebrate in California this November.

Ummm no. We have a candidate in every race, the GOP's, not the Dem's, vote share is down across every district, turnout amongst Democrats was sky high, and the Generic ballot was being powered by crappy online polls like Reuters for the past two weeks. I still don't see what the commotion from the right is about California. They got crushed. They don't even have a senate candidate. It seems to me you're concern trolling.

What are you talking about?? You’re not looking at the numbers! Typical Democratic hack. Wow!

(I’m kidding, dude. I had hoped my post would make it obvious.)

Oh damn I'm so sorry. I had some sort of feeling that you were joking but I didn't know how to respond.

The problem is that there are users who would make all of these arguments in earnest.

*cough cough* Limo and Lear

[Badger]

I really don't understand how the GOP is spinning these results as "good news" for their party in November.

Because they avoided a D v. D situation in every notable race except for the Senate Race.

That is.....SUCH a low threshold

[Hindsight was 2020]

Any new updates on CA48?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

[Virginiá]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

Does that page list the total vote total for the entire CD, or just the Orange County portion (if the CD has parts that go outside OC)?

[kph14]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

Does that page list the total vote total for the entire CD, or just the Orange County portion (if the CD has parts that go outside OC)?

CA-48 is completely within Orange County

[Virginiá]

Right. Is there a regularly updated site that lists the current totals for all the CDs?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

[Arkansas Yankee]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

[Nyvin]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

That was the count yesterday so we got no new info dump today

The slow count in this election and all the recent elections in Washington, Oregon, and Colorado is a good argument against taking those voting systems national.

Why?   Voters love it, it's very popular.  It's just an inconvenience for us election geeks, who cares about that.

[Devout Centrist]

It’s Sunday, of course there isn’t going to be an update