CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[YE]

Here is a recap of my ballot (not mentioning all the races obviously). I voted early a couple weekends back. Basically all the establishment candidates.
Governor: Steve Sisolak
LT Gov: Kate Marshall
AG: Aaron Ford
SOS: Nelson Araujo
Senate: Jacky Rosen
House: Susie Lee
State Senate: Paul Aizely
State Assembly: Kristee Watson (progressive running in one of the few state assembly pickup possibilities this cycle)

I also voted out an incumbent for one of the district offices but can't remember which one it was now.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results Pages are up. This is the link for Maine, links to the others are visible there. Use incongito mode. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/12/us/elections/results-maine-primary-elections.html

Polls close at 7 ET in VA and SC, 8 ET in ME, 9 ET in ND, and 10 ET in NV. Be sure to also watch the state legislative thread for coverage of two key elections in WI, where polls close at 9 ET.

Note regarding coverage of ME-GOV D and R primaries and ME-2 D primary: These primaries are conducted using ranked-choice voting. Only the first-choice results will be tabulated tonight. If someone gets a majority of first-choice votes, that candidate is the winner and the election is over. If no one gets a majority of first-choice votes, then in the days to come, the lowest-placing candidate will be eliminated and the votes will be transferred to the next non-eliminated choice selected on each voter's ballot. This process continues until a candidate has a majority of the non-exhausted votes or there is only one candidate remaining. For this reason, it is possible that WULFRIC PROJECTIONS will be unavailable even if 100% of precincts have reported - because the election is not actually over just yet.

[Thunder98]

If the Dems pick up seats in the specials again in WI, then the odds of winning back the legislature and Governors seat will be very likely.

[KingSweden]

If the Dems pick up seats in the specials again in WI, then the odds of winning back the legislature and Governors seat will be very likely.

I think the Assembly would be a stretch, but absolutely the Senate

[Gass3268]

If the Dems pick up seats in the specials again in WI, then the odds of winning back the legislature and Governors seat will be very likely.

I think the Assembly would be a stretch, but absolutely the Senate

It helps that there are more competative seats up during the midterm years, even though I imagine the Dems would love it if SD-24 was back up this year.

[KingSweden]

If the Dems pick up seats in the specials again in WI, then the odds of winning back the legislature and Governors seat will be very likely.

I think the Assembly would be a stretch, but absolutely the Senate

It helps that there are more competative seats up during the midterm years, even though I imagine the Dems would love it if SD-24 was back up this year.

*If* Democrats win SD1 tonight - what are reasonable potential results for November?

[Oryxslayer]

I think the big question for the Wisconsin legislature is the supreme court decision. If they have to redraw the maps before the election, as NC did in 2016, then the door opens for a R trifecta -> D trifecta situation. If not, then the best dems can probably hope for in Wisconsin is the governors race and the Senate.

Mind you, this is a best case scenario for dems, and is requires winning the open seat tonight.

[Gass3268]

I think the big question for the Wisconsin legislature is the supreme court decision. If they have to redraw the maps before the election, as NC did in 2016, then the door opens for a R trifecta -> D trifecta situation. If not, then the best dems can probably hope for in Wisconsin is the governors race and the Senate.

Mind you, this is a best case scenario for dems, and is requires winning the open seat tonight.

No way the court would make them redraw this year.

[heatcharger]

My precinct didn't have any Wexton (or Stewart) signs, and Friedman and Stover both had canvassers present. It's about as anecdotal as it gets, but seeing how much more money Friedman spent, I wouldn't be surprised if Wexton basically punted on parts of Western Fairfax. Loudoun is her base anyway.

GOP primary prediction:

Stewart 45%
Freitas 43%
Jackson 12%

Freitas will benefit from boosted GOP turnout in NOVA, but I still think Stewart will run it up in the boonies, and of course, he has PWC on his side.

[Progressive]

Results pages?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Results pages?

From previous page:

Results Pages are up. This is the link for Maine, links to the others are visible there. Use incongito mode. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/12/us/elections/results-maine-primary-elections.html

Polls close at 7 ET in VA and SC, 8 ET in ME, 9 ET in ND, and 10 ET in NV. Be sure to also watch the state legislative thread for coverage of two key elections in WI, where polls close at 9 ET.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Senate Republican Primary:  Cory Stewart v Nick Freitas v E W Jackson, to face Sen. Tim Kaine in Nov.

CD-1: 3-way Democratic Primary (Santana v Suddarth v Williams) against Republican incumbent Rob Wittman (Cook PVI: R+8)

CD-2: Mary Jones challenging inc. Scott Taylor (R).  Luria and Mallard in the Dem primary.  R+3.

CD-4: Fenty v McAdams, to face inc. Don McEachin (D).  D+10.

CD-6: 4 Democrats in primary to face Del. Ben Cline (R) to fill seat of retiring Rep. Bob Goodlatte. R+13.

CD-7: Spanberger v Ward in Dem primary, to face Rep. Dave Brat. R+6.

CD-9: Flaccavento v Santopietro in Dem primary, to face Rep. Morgan Griffith. R+19.

CD-10: Dems are Biggins, Friedman, Helmer, Pelletier, Stover & Wexton.  Shak Hill is challenging inc. Rep. Barbara Comstock in the Republican primary.  D+1.


Polls close at 7 pm EDT.

https://www.elections.virginia.gov/media/election-night-reporting/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/12/us/elections/results-virginia-primary-elections.html

[Young Conservative]

Comstock and Freitas! Let's go VA!

[Lamda]

Comstock Wexton and Freitas Kaine! Let's go VA!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Flaccavento and Luria and Spanberger andComstock Wexton and Freitas Kaine! Let's go VA!

[OneJ]

Davis Stover and Kaine, but I’m satisfied with Wexter.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Revised VA-10 predictions:

Wexton 37%
Friedman 30%
Stover 18%
Helmer 10%
The rest 5%

My precinct didn't have any Wexton (or Stewart) signs, and Friedman and Stover both had canvassers present. It's about as anecdotal as it gets, but seeing how much more money Friedman spent, I wouldn't be surprised if Wexton basically punted on parts of Western Fairfax. Loudoun is her base anyway.

GOP primary prediction:

Stewart 45%
Freitas 43%
Jackson 12%

Freitas will benefit from boosted GOP turnout in NOVA, but I still think Stewart will run it up in the boonies, and of course, he has PWC on his side.

Besides Stewart increasing PWC turnout, what would make you think GOP turnout in NOVA will be boosted?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Comstock Wexton and Freitas Kaine! Let's go VA!

[KingSweden]

I think the big question for the Wisconsin legislature is the supreme court decision. If they have to redraw the maps before the election, as NC did in 2016, then the door opens for a R trifecta -> D trifecta situation. If not, then the best dems can probably hope for in Wisconsin is the governors race and the Senate.

Mind you, this is a best case scenario for dems, and is requires winning the open seat tonight.

A finding that gerrymandering is unconstitutional by SCOTUS would most likely lead to the case being demanded to the lower court for further proceedings under the guidelines of the ruling.

[Lamda]

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1006636613819076609?s=21
Though turnout is allegedly down in Chesterfield, where Freitas almost certainly needs to win.

[Virginiá]

Wisconsin getting new maps this year is entirely off the table. The only viable situation where it could have happened in time this cycle is if SCOTUS didn't stay the lower court decision. As it stands now, there is just not enough time. There are only a couple months to go before the primary. People are already campaigning. If the lower court tried to force new maps, SCOTUS would undoubtedly shoot that down and punt it to 2020.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed in VA and SC.

[Progressive]

It's incredible that the once dominant Virginia GOP will now choose between Stewart, Freitas, and EW Jackson. Holy moly.

[uti2]

It's incredible that the once dominant Virginia GOP will now choose between Stewart, Freitas, and EW Jackson. Holy moly.

It might as well be a literal 3-way race between Trump, Cruz and Ben Carson.