2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Pulaski]

FOX News website has Biden winning Ohio with over 80% probability.

Also has Biden winning NC at 93% and Biden winning GA at 75%.

Stuff is really not adding up at the moment; it's best to wait a while before wetting the bed.

[Pulaski]

FOX News website has Biden winning Ohio with over 80% probability.

Also has Biden winning NC at 93% and Biden winning GA at 75%.

Stuff is really not adding up at the moment; it's best to wait a while before wetting the bed.

Well then people shouldn't point to NYT and there predictor model. I swear the S avatars really out here rooting for a Trump win.

I totally agree about not dooming about the NYT model. I'm a bit anxious as this seems closer than expected, but the exits out of Wisconsin and Michigan are much brighter. Biden is still favoured.

[Pulaski]

Ohio is done.

yeahhhh

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323818054267084801?s=20

Don't more Democratic-leaning areas report later in Ohio? I remember Karl Rove complaining in 2012 when it was called for Obama with only a .5% lead, but Fox's decision desk said "there just aren't enough Republican votes left for Romney to make up the ground"

[Pulaski]

Moral of the story:

People vote FOR something.

Not against something.  

Load of nonsense. Name me one thing Trump actually campaigned for in this election. It was entirely "antifa, caravans, political correctness, BLM, protesters, COVID's not a big deal" ad nauseum

[Pulaski]

I'm not feeling certain about Biden winning NC.

     NYT gives a 94% chance of Trump taking it, so that is probably a good idea.

Cool, Fox gives Biden a 95% chance of taking it so I guess Biden wins by 1%.

[Pulaski]

Moral of the story:

People vote FOR something.

Not against something. 

Load of nonsense. Name me one thing Trump actually campaigned for in this election. It was entirely "antifa, caravans, political correctness, BLM, protesters" ad nauseum

Race and religion mean everything in politics. 

This contradicts your earlier post though.

[Pulaski]

What's wrong about voting against something?

Nothing; I was just disputing that Biden's underperforming because supposedly Trump was offering people something to vote for.

[Pulaski]

Bullock leading by 1.5% in exit polling

I really like Steve Bullock. He's a more moderate guy, but he's from a place where it's totally fine for a Democrat to tack right. Really hope he pulls it out.

[Pulaski]

All the networks should be talking about NC right now. It's definitely heading down the wire, but the votes are there for Biden, unless that last batch of votes from Wake, Durham and Orange are unexpectedly R.

Absolutely, and it still has late-arriving mail-ins to count. NC is pure tossup - just like polling suggested. There may be a small polling error that means Trump does a bit better than expected, but I still don't see him holding Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Arizona.

[Pulaski]

Biden's probably going to win but it will be such an anaemic victory, sigh.

An anaemic victory is still a victory. Republicans wouldn't waste it, and neither should Dems.

This might cement Biden's fate as a one-termer though.

[Pulaski]

This sh*t is going to drag on for days and weeks as the blue shift takes place. Not what America and the world needed, in-character for 2020. Though 2020 gave my country a left-wing landslide at least.

No legal weed though

[Pulaski]

Am I the only one who still thinks Biden wins lol

Me too, but I'm a lot more nervous than I was 24 hours ago.

[Pulaski]

A software error means ~80 000 mail-ins in Georgia aren't being reported - they'll likely lean Biden.

This is gonna take a while and people shouldn't get too doomer-y about early results.

[Pulaski]

It really feels like this. Might not change states but the margins will likely get decently tighter. NC is gonna be a mess though, with 9 more days to count.

https://twitter.com/DaveLeeFT/status/1323831678947618816

My read of the coverage so far is that most media outlets are being very conservative in the way they call and commentate on these races, maybe we won't see this phenomenon outside of Trump supporters.

[Pulaski]

Supposedly they haven't even begun counting mail-ins in Wisconsin.

[Pulaski]

Biden creeping up In Wisconsin and he may pull it off

Ew, gross.

[Pulaski]

Can someone give me a succinct breakdown of what's outstanding in MI, WI, and PA?  I can't find anything decent in the media.

In particular, in PA Biden is down by 13 with 26% of the vote left.  Is there any reason to believe that he can win the remaining vote 2-1?

No there is not

Pennsylvania's mail-in vote leant Democratic by something like 40 points. There's plenty of reason to believe Biden can overcome the margin.

[Pulaski]

Can someone give me a succinct breakdown of what's outstanding in MI, WI, and PA?  I can't find anything decent in the media.

In particular, in PA Biden is down by 13 with 26% of the vote left.  Is there any reason to believe that he can win the remaining vote 2-1?

No there is not

Pennsylvania's mail-in vote leant Democratic by something like 40 points. There's plenty of reason to believe Biden can overcome the margin.

Except there's not. There is literally no reason to believe he can make this up. He needs 75% of the state's outstanding votes, which will not happen

You don't actually know how many votes are left in Pennsylvania, and nobody does. They accept mail-ins that arrive up to three days after Election Day.

[Pulaski]

Can someone give me a succinct breakdown of what's outstanding in MI, WI, and PA?  I can't find anything decent in the media.

In particular, in PA Biden is down by 13 with 26% of the vote left.  Is there any reason to believe that he can win the remaining vote 2-1?

No there is not

Pennsylvania's mail-in vote leant Democratic by something like 40 points. There's plenty of reason to believe Biden can overcome the margin.

Except there's not. There is literally no reason to believe he can make this up. He needs 75% of the state's outstanding votes, which will not happen

You don't actually know how many votes are left in Pennsylvania, and nobody does. They accept mail-ins that arrive up to three days after Election Day.

Are you even paying attention at all?

John King LITERALLY SAID HE NEEDS 75% OF OUTSTANDING VOTES

Yeah cool, John King doesn't know either.

And if he does, why isn't the race called?

[Pulaski]

Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada all look decent for Biden. That’ll be enough.

[Pulaski]

Wait, what’s happened while I’ve been asleep? I thought Arizona got called ages ago

[Pulaski]

Thanks for the update guys. Sounds like Biden’s chances are increasing the longer this goes on then.

[Pulaski]

https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1324104075038711808?s=20

None of that is accurate.  Most are early ballots that were dropped off.

Second, the PA margin is 320k and there are more than that outstanding.

And as I said several times last night, literally no-one knows the exact number of ballots still to be counted in PA; mail-ins are still arriving. Trump’s gonna due to stop those being counted, of course, but as of right now they will be counted.

[Pulaski]

If the election goes Biden's way and is declared even by Fox News, if Mitch and senate Republicans have backbone, they should tell Trump the game is over and he has to concede. But they're not Barry Goldwater and Howard Baker, maybe besides the usual suspects as Mitt. However, if Trump loses, Mitch owes nothing to him any longer. Maybe he is once doing the right thing.

Mitch won't endorse Trump trying to steal the election, not because of "doing the right thing" but from a purely self-interested point of view. If you are Mitch things are pretty good, you have an R majority in the SCOTUS, a structural advantage in the Senate and in the EC. There really is very little reason to blantently try to steal an election, because if you do that, all of that including the SCOTUS majority is in jeopardy. If you do the institutions are in trouble (why would you do that when the institutions as currently constructed favor you) and things like secession are on the table.

Mitch has used Trump like a (very tiny) condom, he used to him to ejaculate his SC majority, now he's basically done with him and ready to throw him in the garbage and move on unless he can legitimately win.

Fantastic post, especially the analogy at the end.

What would be lovely is if Mitch conceded that Biden has won and subsequently feels the wrath of the MAGAs. I would really really love to see a huge division open up in the Republican Party here.

[Pulaski]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324108206801563650

Too late; I’ve already claimed all 538 electoral votes, as well as Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa and Neptune.