California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Sir Mohamed]

At this point Porter's best move is to lay the groundwork for a run for Governor with her Senate campaign. I don't see a path for her even in a top two with Schiff but she could start out as a favorite in the 2026 Gov primary.

Not sure that would get better for her. Big names are already in, like Kounalakis and Yee. Bonta is probably going to join them as well. Maybe she should try another statewide office first or just work towards becoming a member of House leadership.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

Yup, that ship had sailed. I wouldn't say that her political career is over after this unless she pulls it off. She could try a comeback and run for some statewide offices in 2026 below governor (which already has enough actual or potential high-profile candidates). Running for gov later on might be easier from a statewide office anyway.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

Yup, that ship had sailed. I wouldn't say that her political career is over after this unless she pulls it off. She could try a comeback and run for some statewide offices in 2026 below governor (which already has enough actual or potential high-profile candidates). Running for gov later on might be easier from a statewide office anyway.

The BoE member for Orange County is 85 and may or may not be running for Porter’s seat (I keep finding conflicting info) so she can definitely run for that in 2026

I'm sorry, an 85 year old is running for Congress? Jesus Christ.

So Joe Biden is a young man

Joe Arpaio also ran for in 2018 at the age of 86. For a 6 year term in the senate.

[Sir Mohamed]

Congrats, Senator Adam Schiff!

Current vote:


Calif. Open primary
44% of results in
Candidate    Percent    Votes
Adam Schiff (Dem)
   34.9%    1.212.420
Steve Garvey (GOP)
   30.9%    1.071.208
Katie Porter (Dem)    14.4%    499.887
Barbara Lee (Dem)    7.2%    251.258
See full results ›
Source: AP (as of 8:37 a.m. on March 6, 2024)

https://www.npr.org/2024/03/05/1236116786/california-senate-primary-schiff-porter-garvey

[Sir Mohamed]

Very sad state of affairs for the CA GOP when a "good night" for them is just advancing to the general election.

Yup, though this is the first senate election for a GOP candidate to advance to the senate election in November since adoption of the jungle primary after 2012.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good riddance to this sore loser trash.
https://twitter.com/katieporteroc/status/1765513523050791023?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6...

Ill worded statement that makes her sound like a sore loser. It's always cheap to come after "the establishment", but in the end, well more people, including ordinary folks, voted for Adam Schiff. They're the establishment now? Well, if I'm part of it by supporting Schiff as a result of his congressional career so far, then so be it.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1765546277071429744?s=20

Disappointing, though I assume they just wait for all votes to be counted. As embarrassing as it is the counting takes so long.

That said, they deserved to lose at this stage. We certainly don't need to establish the Trump precedent in the Dem party that we no longer accept defeats anymore. That's just a huge middle finger to the voters of the winning candidate.

[Sir Mohamed]

Question is whether Garvey can exceed Dahle's performance in 2022, he lost by 18.4%. Something like a 59-41 outcome would be a good showing by Garvey.

Yup, though that would require Garvey to run ahead of Trump by a few points. I think that will be the case, just not sure whether it's more than 1-2 pts.