Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really don’t think there will be a big gap between Perdue’s and Loeffler’s vote totals as some people are predicting.  If you look at the combined vote for Dem and GOP candidates in the special election, it is almost identical to Ossoff and Perdue’s vote in the regular election.  Unless it comes down to 1% or less, both seats are going the same way.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I do think Osoff will slightly outrun Warnock, but there will be very little crossover.  IIRC, Osoff got 2% more in November than the combined Democratic total in the special election.

I believe the combined Dems in the special election actually did slightly better than Osoff, about 48.4%-48.0%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting? 

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting?  

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

Not like that would be a felony punishable by 1-10 years in prison & a fine of $100,000 or anything.

What exactly would the crime be?  I’m not suggesting they get into accidents or anything.  Just get on the highway at rush hour and drive kinda slow.

Republicans have been doing everything they can to impede early and mail in voting all year.  It’s time the Dems fought back.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting?  

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

Not like that would be a felony punishable by 1-10 years in prison & a fine of $100,000 or anything.

What exactly would the crime be?  I’m not suggesting they get into accidents or anything.  Just get on the highway at rush hour and drive kinda slow.

Republicans have been doing everything they can to impede early and mail in voting all year.  It’s time the Dems fought back.

A campaign paying for that would be voter suppression.

I’m not convinced of this.  “Voter suppression” isn’t itself a crime.  It has to come under a more specific category.  But I don’t think this would constitute voter fraud, voter intimidation, or vote buying, and I also don’t think it would be a civil rights violation since it wouldn’t be targeting a covered minority group.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

From Stephanie Saul @ NYT: Kelly Loeffler is only the second woman to serve as a senator from Georgia. The other, Rebecca Latimer Felton, served for one day in 1922.

Both were also among the worst people to ever serve in the Senate.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Wasn’t Trump way ahead in Georgia around this time on Election Day?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It seems llke Dems are doing better than they need to be doing basically eveywhere.  I ‘m not seeing any reason right now why we should think Republicans have a chance to pull this out.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think the race are likely to shake out to Warnock +3, Ossoff +2.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Just curious; if Dems pull both these off, what will be considered the tipping point seat in the Senate?

2016 NH Senate race

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

We are running out of time for DeKalb to update before 11pm.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Ossoff is down 19k, not 3k. There was a tabulation error. Perdue still isn't gonna win

It wasn’t a tabulation error, the biggest tranche of remaining GOP vote came in a few minutes after the DeKalb dump.  It actually bumped Ossoff above 95% on the needle.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

I have such a hard time believing that this is not an act at this point. The absence of self-awareness is truly beyond my comprehension.

Humor me...


Republicans gain in Coffee county and Houston county.

That likely brings Perdue from 9k to 20k.

You think there’s over a net of over 20k of Dem votes?

I’ve never doubted the needle before but... something doesn’t make sense.

I’m not “trolling”

I don’t know why I’m feeding you.

But yes there are easily more than 20k net Dem votes outstanding.  Probably at least 50k in fact.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

According to the NYT, Ossoff needs to win 52% of the outstanding vote to win, and he is projected to win 63% of that vote.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So the Republicans control the Senate until the Warnock and Ossoff are seated.  Is it possible they could refuse to seat them based on fake election fraud allegations?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So the Republicans control the Senate until the Warnock and Ossoff are seated.  Is it possible they could refuse to seat them based on fake election fraud allegations?

oh god yall need to let these dystopian fantasies rest

I’ve not been a doomer at all with respect to any of the other possibilities people have floated.  
But this one doesn’t seem unrealistic based on how close the Ossoff race might be, and what just happened in the PA legislature.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Do these races need to be certified at the same time, or will they be certified separately?  Because both Dems will take office as soon as the their race is certified, right?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm not really getting the point of all these 8-year old Ossoff tweets that people have been digging up.  They all seem totally inoffensive and unremarkable to me.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Will Ossoff beat 1%?

It appears that way... likely a few more trickle of mail in ballots, plus possibly ~10K provisionals and ~14K military/overseas (though unlikely it's anywhere near that much).

NYT's +2.0 Warnock and +1.1 Ossoff look nearly spot on

It's also worth noting how dead on the 538 polling average was (looks like it will miss by about 0.5%).