Does Tim Ryan have a chance to win?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Remember, this is "can win", not "will win".
If you think he doesn't have a chance to win, by all means vote No. If you think he does, vote Yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes

[Gracile]

No, I don't think he has a chance given how Republican Ohio has shifted and the overall poor environment for Democrats in 2022. Could he lose by a respectable margin? Sure, possibly - but closeness ≠ winnable.

[ModerateRadical]

I don't know where the votes for a Ryan win would come from. I don't see Tim Ryan holding his ground as well in Appalachia during a Dem. president's midterm as Sherrod Brown did in 2018. On top of that, even if Ryan somehow gets an absolutely massive boost in the entirety of NE Ohio, wouldn't he still need to put up good numbers in counties along Lake Erie where Dem. strength is eroding? Even if Ryan outdoes Biden in the suburbs, he needs so many things to go right in order to win, whereas JD Vance can plausibly win by double digits while running a horrendous campaign.

[TheSaint250]

If 0.1% chance to win counts, then yes. Otherwise, no.

[Xing]

The same chance Jim Carrey had, perhaps.

[wesmoorenerd]

I don't really think people are grasping the extent of how bad Vance's campaign is. If what I'm hearing is close to accurate, at this rate it may well end up being the worst Senate campaign of my lifetime. He's obviously favored based on the fundamentals alone, but Vance is doing everything in his power to lose this race (see his comments today on how people in violent marriages shouldn't get divorced) and frankly Ohio isn't red enough that he can't blow it.

[Meatball Ron]

How would you define a chance? >5%? Yes. >20%? I think not.

This race is shaping up to be a lot closer than it should be, but I really really do not see Ryan winning in the end.

[GALeftist]

If it is October and nothing has changed, maybe. As of now, I'm not willing to go that far.

[Politician]

No (sane). It's Ohio in a red wave.

[Schiff for Senate]

How would you define a chance? >5%? Yes. >20%? I think not.

This race is shaping up to be a lot closer than it should be, but I really really do not see Ryan winning in the end.

Maybe this. I can absolutely see Vance underperforming Trump 2020 - might even be likelier than 50% - but Ryan actually winning the race, though not entirely impossible, is very unlikely (like <5%, as recoveringdemocrat said).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anyone thinks OH belongs to Rs will see OH turn blue on EDay, just watch

Steve Konraki already said ratings don't matter when the big board is blank on EDay yet Rs still go by ranking but they don't go by ranking of Blue states where MI and PA and NV are blue but they make them red

MI and PA are going blue despite what Rs think

[President Johnson]

I seriously doubt it. Just don't see it, to be completely honest.

Ohio voted for Trump by eight points twice, and 2022 is not shaping up as a very Democratic friendly year. Even in a red ripple or neutral year, it would very quite of a challenge. The only thing that speaks for Ryan is that he's running a strong campaign from all I'm seeing, I just don't think it's nearly enough to overcome partisan winds and the state's leaning. And Vance is not the worst candidate either.

If the final result is something like 52-45%, that would be pretty good. I more expect 54-44%. The polls tend to overestimate Democrats in Ohio all the time, especially a few months before the November election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I seriously doubt it. Just don't see it, to be completely honest.

Ohio voted for Trump by eight points twice, and 2022 is not shaping up as a very Democratic friendly year. Even in a red ripple or neutral year, it would very quite of a challenge. The only thing that speaks for Ryan is that he's running a strong campaign from all I'm seeing, I just don't think it's nearly enough to overcome partisan winds and the state's leaning. And Vance is not the worst candidate either.

If the final result is something like 52-45%, that would be pretty good. I more expect 54-44%. The polls tend to overestimate Democrats in Ohio all the time, especially a few months before the November election.

Lol
I am optimistic

Vance is not winning by 10 pts forget it, the only lead Vance had was 3 pts if he wins at all it will be narrow

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Definitely, but it is an extremely narrow path to victory and Vance has plenty of time to right the ship (though he currently shows no interest in doing so).  Still, there is a genuine chance - small though it may be - and that's a remarkable development already.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How exactly are polls overstating D's and the same polls have Reynolds up by 20 and she is only up 51)43 like Grassley is look how close those 3)4 IA polls are we can win 3/4 and AK Palin is losing to Mary Peltola, but Begich is beating the D

D's are doing better not just because of Dobbs airlines and gas prices are falling it's 4.38 not 6.99 anymore 399 round trip not 1K

[Minnesota Mike]

Of course he has a chance. How big of chance is up for debate.

[7,052,770]

Yes, but only if Vance spends the next 3 months pissing it away. If Vance shapes up, then No.

[Cyrusman]

I think he has the same chance that Joe O’dea has of winning the race in CO

[MarkD]

Yes, I think there's a pretty good chance Ryan will win. As others above have noted, Vance is running a terrible, self-destructive campaign. Vance's comment about abusive marriages sounds like extremely bad advice from Ann Landers. (Although the comment does not necessarily portend what kind of federal laws he might try to make (so why did he comment about it at all?)) Polling done in the last month by Impact Research, Momentive, and Grow Progress consistently has Ryan ahead of Vance, and even FiveThirtyEight has Ryan very narrowly above Vance. Sherrod Brown won reelection four years ago. And there's even an issue of scandal among the state's Republican state legislators that could potentially taint Vance too. I'd say the odds are at least 50-50 that Ryan will win, and maybe even slightly better than that, at 51-49 or 52-48.
(Don't interpret this as if I'm endorsing Ryan. I'd rather vote for an independent.)

[Brittain33]

I’m guilty of hopium on this race but 50/50 sounds wildly optimistic given the state’s partisanship.

[Ferguson97]

If this were a neutral cycle I'd say he would have a chance, but I just don't see it in this environment.

I mean it's not Idaho levels of safe, but I'm not going to get my hopes up.

[2016]

Yes, I think there's a pretty good chance Ryan will win. As others above have noted, Vance is running a terrible, self-destructive campaign. Vance's comment about abusive marriages sounds like extremely bad advice from Ann Landers. (Although the comment does not necessarily portend what kind of federal laws he might try to make (so why did he comment about it at all?)) Polling done in the last month by Impact Research, Momentive, and Grow Progress consistently has Ryan ahead of Vance, and even FiveThirtyEight has Ryan very narrowly above Vance. Sherrod Brown won reelection four years ago. And there's even an issue of scandal among the state's Republican state legislators that could potentially taint Vance too. I'd say the odds are at least 50-50 that Ryan will win, and maybe even slightly better than that, at 51-49 or 52-48.
(Don't interpret this as if I'm endorsing Ryan. I'd rather vote for an independent.)

This is just massive wishful thinking here. As terrible as Vance is as soon as he starts really tying Ryan to the Biden/Harris Agenda and Congressional Democrats in General any lead Ryan has will evaporate.

This Race reminds me a bit of the McConnell/Lundergan-Grimes Race of 2014. McConnell had terrible Approvals in his Home State, wasn't really well liked but did the one thing that saved him by tying Grimes to the hip of President Obama who had terrible Approvals in KY and it worked to the degree that Grimes even refused to say who she voted in 2008 & 2012 despite being a Delegate twice for the DNC.

I can tell you a lot more about this Race once I see the JA in Ohio for President Biden. The notion that in all of the competitive Senate Races all of the sudden Democrats are outrunning Bidens JA by 10+ Points is just BOGUS!

[Sir Mohamed]

"A chance" implies anything more than 0%. Obviously it's higher than that, I just voted No regardless because his chances are extremely low. The fundamentals are just against it. Trump twice won the state by 8, Dems failed to elect a gov since 1991 for all but once and Brown was a a strong incumbent running in a Dem wave year. The polls are not trustworthy, as they constantly underestimated R support, especially with months to go.

He might have a chance against Vance if both ran in a state like PA or even WI, just not OH. Sure, Vance may not be a good candidate, fundamentals and the state's partisan lean will definitely bail him out.

Likely/Safe R.

[Meatball Ron]

How would you define a chance? >5%? Yes. >20%? I think not.

This race is shaping up to be a lot closer than it should be, but I really really do not see Ryan winning in the end.

Maybe this. I can absolutely see Vance underperforming Trump 2020 - might even be likelier than 50% - but Ryan actually winning the race, though not entirely impossible, is very unlikely (like <5%, as recoveringdemocrat said).

Ah, sorry, you misinterpreted my post. I think Ryan's chances of winning are >5%, but less than 20%. Closer to 5 than 20 though, if I had to get more specific.