Ohio redistricting thread

[David Hume]

12-3 is definitely most likely, with the Akron seat being lean or likely R and Cincinnati being likely D.

12-3 is definitely the farthest the GOP could push it without starting to risk a dummymander but I can almost guarantee that plan only lasts 4 years because it won't get the Democratic votes it needs to last for 10 and it will almost certainly get taken to court for unduly favoring Republicans. 

Using 2020 results I think we are more likely to end up with something that is more like 10-1-4 at worst for the Democrats.  If they are feeling really aggressive then they could push for 9-1-5.  I think a fair map is probably something more like 7-2-6 or 7-3-5.

If they know it's 4 year map, why don't try their luck to get 13-2? If they are lucky with the state court, it's unlikely to be a dummymander just in 4 years. They can adjust after 4 years, which is actually better for party interest.

[David Hume]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

I find the senate map ridiculus. Why not just draw a clean and safe 13-2 map?

[David Hume]

What’s the purpose of the new Jim Jordan district? Either it’s to bait Democratic into pouring money into the seat or to push Jordan towards a Senate run.

I find the senate map ridiculus. Why not just draw a clean and safe 13-2 map?

They think that 2022 midterms and 2024 general will favor the GOP because of Biden's unpopularity so they decide nows the time to go all out. There's an outside chance for 14-1 with the state senate map and not likely Dems win more than 2. In 2025 they redraw for a safer gerrymander depending on what happens, if they need to go on the defensive for 2026.

You really think they are fighting for the 3rd? If they win that, the house is already R+60. Besides, this map seems really too bad that the Roberts in OHSC may strike it down.

[David Hume]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yeah that’s the next step if Republicans get too aggressive here.  I know business organizations like the COC basically said they weren’t gonna keep helping Republicans beat back independent commissions here and that is why Republicans came to the table in the first place on this in 2015.

What's the reason that COC would prefer independent commissions?

[David Hume]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yeah that’s the next step if Republicans get too aggressive here.  I know business organizations like the COC basically said they weren’t gonna keep helping Republicans beat back independent commissions here and that is why Republicans came to the table in the first place on this in 2015.

What's the reason that COC would prefer independent commissions?

Because they would take the issue off the table.  They don’t want to have to be fighting a referendum every two years.

COC spend money to get more R elected.

R drawn maps help to get more R elected.

COC spend money to fight against commission.

I can't see any problem with this logic. With a commission, COC would need to spend even MORE money to elect enough Rs to push for their preferred policy. So what's the problem?

[David Hume]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yeah that’s the next step if Republicans get too aggressive here.  I know business organizations like the COC basically said they weren’t gonna keep helping Republicans beat back independent commissions here and that is why Republicans came to the table in the first place on this in 2015.

What's the reason that COC would prefer independent commissions?

Because they would take the issue off the table.  They don’t want to have to be fighting a referendum every two years.

COC spend money to get more R elected.

R drawn maps help to get more R elected.

COC spend money to fight against commission.

I can't see any problem with this logic. With a commission, COC would need to spend even MORE money to elect enough Rs to push for their preferred policy. So what's the problem?

Because they would have to keep spending to fight the commission.  The COC would rather have a 10-5 commission map where they wouldn’t need to spend money on races over a 13-2 partisan map where they would have continually spend money to beat back commission efforts.

Seems you did not get my points. Why do COC want to spend money? Because they want to get enough politicians elected to push for their preferred policy.

With a gerrymander map, it would be much easier for them to get enough politicians to push for their preferred policy.