WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[walleye26]

RonJon is the freaking worst. He was a decent guy when he ran in 2010, and now he’s become your crazy uncle you have to deal with at Thanksgiving. In terms of who the Dems should nominate for 2022 Sen, Kind is #1 and it’s not even close. He would be inoffensive to suburbanites and could win some Driftless counties. Mandela Barnes would get crushed, his statements after the Kenosha shooting dumped gasoline on the fire, and Pocan would get crushed in both WOW and The Fox Valley as being a “Madison liberal.” Maybe a decently acceptable assembly/State Senate candidate would be fine. Even though she has little name recognition, Robyn Vining (D-Wauwatosa) Might not be a bad idea. Her district covers parts of Waukesha County, and she was reelected this year by an 8 point margin after winning by like 0.1 last year. Maybe Amanda Stuck? She was in the assembly from Appleton before she lost in a Congressional race this year. She’s from the Fox Valley, so maybe it’ll help with turnout there? Otherwise somebody like Nick Milroy from Superior would be ok.

[walleye26]

I don’t know much about Nelson, but if he’s well-liked in the Fox Valley that would be helpful.

[walleye26]

I don’t know much about Nelson, but if he’s well-liked in the Fox Valley that would be helpful.

He's supposedly a popular county executive, but lost his own county to Mike Gallagher by 18 points in 2016.

Also, Johnson said his 2022 plans were contingent on Georgia. He seems to imply that he'll retire if Republicans hold the Senate and run if they don't.

Ugh. RonJon is the worst. I follow WI politics pretty close, and I know little about Nelson, so that should tell you something. I’m still on team Kind, but we will see what happens.

[walleye26]

Honestly, the order of recruitment should be (With Pocan out)
1. Ron Kind


(50 foot gap)


2. Amanda Stuck/Robyn Vining/Nick Milroy
3. ?

[walleye26]

I think Ron Jon has seriously damaged himself now in places like De Pere, Neenah, and Greenfield. He’s blatant kissing up to Trump probably has hurt him in the inner ring Milwaukee burbs and Green Bay.

As for why Baldwin did pretty well in 2018, the main reason? She knows dairy issues really well. My in-laws live in Sheboygan County and there are multiple cheese plants in Calumet, Sheboygan, and Manitowoc Counties chalk full of deep red voters. Baldwin has always reached out to them to help and a lot of the farmers were truly grateful. Baldwin did really well in places like Plymouth (The Cheese Capital).

[walleye26]

Possibly. There seems to be a shift recently among some of my friends who used to support him who now view him as a spineless slime ball.

[walleye26]

I am assuming that Johnson is likely going to announce that he's not going to run again.

Why? All of his recent political commentary would indicate he's gearing up for another culture war-driven election campaign.

Because Johnson keeps saying crazy, stupid things. He keeps on shooting himself in the foot. After saying something like this, he'd be crazy to try to run for re-election, as if he thinks he can still win.

At the same time though, everybody thought he was DOA in 2016 and he managed to win in an upset. So he could probably just yell “the polls are wrong, they were wrong in 16 and almost were wrong in 2020” and convince many Republicans.

[walleye26]

Kind would be an A+ recruit. Godlewski a B recruit (nothing against her other than nobody cares about the state treasurer, and as a result low name recognition). She did win statewide, so there’s that.

Nelson is a C- recruit I’d say, everybody else is a D or F.

When I say poor recruit, it’s nothing personal to them, and maybe they could win, but if a radiologist from Marshfield and a Bucks executive are your best recruit, I’m skeptical. But hey, maybe they are charismatic and people really like them and they win

[walleye26]

Kind would be an A+ recruit. Godlewski a B recruit (nothing against her other than nobody cares about the state treasurer, and as a result low name recognition). She did win statewide, so there’s that.

Nelson is a C- recruit I’d say, everybody else is a D or F.

When I say poor recruit, it’s nothing personal to them, and maybe they could win, but if a radiologist from Marshfield and a Bucks executive are your best recruit, I’m skeptical. But hey, maybe they are charismatic and people really like them and they win

I don’t know as much about some of these folks (and I’m sure you know more than I do), but I get the sense that if nothing else, Alex Lasry is pretty well connected politically and seems to have some real institutional support from the Milwaukee Democratic establishment that was lined up before he even got in the race. 

This does make me wonder if he’s got better political chops than his resume might suggest, although I suppose he could also just be a major WI Democratic donor who is calling in favors.  I imagine we’ll find out sooner rather than later.

I do agree that Kind would probably be our best recruit.  That said, Wisconsin seems to be very much a turnout state at this point, so candidate quality is less important here - at least to a point - than it is in a state like Pennsylvania.

Btw, how would you grade Mandela Barnes as a potential Senate recruit? 

Regarding Lasry, I follow WI politics pretty closely and I haven’t heard of him ever. Maybe he is a connected donor or something that I haven’t seen.

Barnes I think would be a bad recruit, because WOW. After the Jacob Blake shooting, he got on TV with some statement that police are just killers and have a vendetta against black people. I have a feeling that WOW and the Fox Valley would be really turned off by some of his comments, as well as a scandal of continuously unpaid property taxes on his condos in Milwaukee. I don’t think it would play really well in the Fox Valley or WOW, and it’s super easy to run against the city of Milwaukee or Madison in this state. Kind isn’t a “radical Madison liberal” (scary voice in the attack ad) and I don’t think the socialism label would stick to him. I think he would play pretty well in WOW (probably mid to high 30s) and decent in the Fox Valley. He would also have the advantage of padding the margins in the Driftless a bit.

[walleye26]

Kind would be an A+ recruit. Godlewski a B recruit (nothing against her other than nobody cares about the state treasurer, and as a result low name recognition). She did win statewide, so there’s that.

Nelson is a C- recruit I’d say, everybody else is a D or F.

When I say poor recruit, it’s nothing personal to them, and maybe they could win, but if a radiologist from Marshfield and a Bucks executive are your best recruit, I’m skeptical. But hey, maybe they are charismatic and people really like them and they win

I think you're under-rating Godlewski (though a B is still good!).  At the moment, I think she's the best candidate Democrats could run.

Maybe I am. The treasurer in this state has very little power and low name recognition. She doesn’t have any major scandals or glaring issues I could see. I still think Kind would be the best since he
has a constant track record of winning in difficult races, and perceived moderation. Although I think Sarah would be a decent recruit.

[walleye26]

I don’t think Barnes would be a good fit either. His comments after the Blake shooting and his unpaid taxes at his Milwaukee condos will be nonstop fodder for talk radio in WOW. Godlewski isn’t a bad recruit, seeing she’s won statewide that should count for something (though Treasurer is a joke position, in fact her predecessor left it to run for state house, that should tell you how lame it is), and I don’t think anybody knows how Lasry or Nelson are. Kind would be a decent recruit, and it’s possible that a State Rep or State Senator could appear for the Dems that wouldn’t be a bad choices either. 

[walleye26]

I don’t think Barnes would win statewide. The unpaid taxes at his condos, his attempt to primary Lena Taylor left a sore spot in the black community, and his comments after the Kenosha shooting were pretty incendiary, so I could easily see that turning off Crucial* Waukesha County. I mean, maybe I’m wrong, but Kind or Godlewski would be better.

As a sort of joke though, if the Bucks win the NBA finals, Lasry could run on that.

Bonus: even though RonJon only promised two terms, if Barnes is running and looks like he will be the Democrats nominee, he will run too. Mark it.

[walleye26]

Midterms curse is going to make this seat difficult to flip for either Barnes or Godlewski. Both are good candidates, Barnes seems to have more obvious baggage but Godlewski is relatively unknown in the state and could be extremely damaged by any GOP-run propaganda. Look at what happened to Feingold, a previously respected and former U.S. Senator, in the last weeks of the 2016 campaign.

These candidates are both excellent individuals (and some of the other candidates are quite good on a local level as well), but they aren't candidates who have the special quality to win against Johnson in a midterm.

Everything you say is correct, but I wonder if RJ has shot himself in the foot with his comments since last year.

[walleye26]

I think it’s Kind>Godlewski>Barnes.

Ideally Ron Kind would be the nominee, as he would play better in the Driftless and WOW. Barnes said some pretty harsh stuff with Kenosha about police and that would certainly fire up the GOP base. He also has had scandals of unpaid property taxes on his condo in Milwaukee. He also may have lied about his college degree, and has divided the black community in Milwaukee by primarying other black elected officials.
https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2019/08/29/op-ed-the-mishaps-of-mandela-barnes/

[walleye26]

Surprised Barnes is starting to get endorsements. I don’t see Barnes being able to win, but who knows.

[walleye26]

Barnes endorsements make me think Kind won’t jump in, but Kind may be waiting to see how redistricting ends up.

[walleye26]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

[walleye26]

Why are people so against Barnes on Atlas? He seems like he’d do as well as Godlewksi, and seems to have a better campaign message than her.

I’ve answered this one many times on this board before, but again, here goes:
1) he has a history of neglecting to pay taxes and fees; he had many unpaid and delinquent taxes on his condos in Milwaukee
2) he lied about his college degree
3) his comments about the Kenosha shooting were quite harsh and anti-police
4) he has a somewhat complex relationship with the black establishment in Milwaukee; he was a state rep for awhile, but then tried to challenge another black state senator and got pretty handily crushed.

My brother said recently he talked with a friend who pretty high up in the WISDems, and his friend told him that it looks as though they will consolidate pretty quickly behind Barnes. Kind isn’t running, and Godlewski lived in DC until 2017 so she would be portrayed as a DC insider. They really don’t have a better option.

Obviously you are in the ground in WI and I am not, but other than maybe #3, these items (especially #4) seem like thing that will ruffle feathers in political circles but not matter to real life voters.

Godlewski feels like a paper tiger to me and I think Barnes has the potential to be really strong (though this race is still an uphill battle).

It depends. I agree with you that most people won’t care (but #3 could very well come to hurt him badly in the suburbs, he made some comments along the lines of “police are just racists who want to push their vendetta against the black community” and that went over very poorly in Kenosha county in particular-Evers flipped it in 2018, but it got a fair amount redder in 2020 than normal.) about the other stuff but Wisconsin is truly won and lost at the margins. Even if the taxes thing irritates 1% of the population that could cost you the state. None of this is to say that he can’t win. Barnes certainly could, he has a pretty simple path to victory: high MKE/Madison turnout, don’t get killed in the suburbs and Fox valley, and lower turnout in rural western and northern Wisconsin. Personally, I wish Kind would’ve run, but Barnes could win. I just think some of these things like lying about his degree and unpaid taxes are going to turn into a “but her emails” thing and are kind of unforced.

[walleye26]

It would be really nice for everybody if RonJon actually announced something now. Any day now Ron...

[walleye26]

Chantia Lewis was indicted on charges of embezzling more than $20,000 in campaign funds and false travel reimbursements from the city of Milwaukee.

Milwaukee Ald. Chantia Lewis, who is running for the U.S. Senate, was charged Tuesday with five criminal counts that accuse her of taking more than $20,000 in campaign funds and false travel reimbursements from the city.   

Lewis is accused of taking money from her campaign account and using it to attend a Florida worship conference, pay tuition for classes at Agape Love Bible College and go on a family trip to the Wisconsin Dells. She also allegedly used campaign funds for basic expenses, such as car and credit card payments, vehicle repairs and rent on a Milwaukee apartment, according to the criminal complaint.

On top of that, the complaint accuses Lewis of making more than 20 inappropriate cash withdrawals from ATMs  totaling $5,590.50 from 2016 to 2020.


In all, the 43-page complaint, filed by Milwaukee County prosecutors, states that Lewis "defrauded the City of Milwaukee and her campaign, collectively, of at least $21,666.70."

Lewis, the vice-chair of the Public Safety and Health Committee, makes a base salary of $73,222 a year as a Common Council member

Dang, you beat me to it

[walleye26]

I saw my first Alex Lasry TV ads this week. To sum it up: I built the new Bucks stadium with $15 union jobs, I’m progressive, and the Bucks won. I like social justice. Oh, also, Go Bucks.

[walleye26]

I saw my first Alex Lasry TV ads this week. To sum it up: I built the new Bucks stadium with $15 union jobs, I’m progressive, and the Bucks won. I like social justice. Oh, also, Go Bucks.

Is it perusaive enough to people ? Also can you link me to the ad ? I have a friend who's a huge bucks fan and into elections and wanna send it to him .

https://www.wispolitics.com/2021/lasry-launches-first-ads-of-senate-campaign-announces-3-million-raised-so-far/

This isn’t the exact ad because AMP links are blocking me from finding it, but this is pretty close to what I’ve been seeing. Lasry has been touting his support from local MKE officials like Crowley, but idk how it will turn out. I don’t think as of now it’ll be enough to overtake Barnes, but it’s obviously early, and if the Brewers win a World Series followed by another Bucks title, you could possibly see that be connected to some popularity. Barry Alvarez certainly could have won the Governor race in 2002 because he was so beloved.

[walleye26]

I’m planning on voting in the GOP primary now since the Dem primary is over with. I’m voting against Grothman and Johnson in the GOP primary. Mullinex is unlikely to win but he’s pro legalizing weed and anti “the election was stolen” so I plan on voting for him.

[walleye26]

What will be Barnes worst county in the primary?

Hard to know since all his opponents dropped out. But I would guess a county north of highway 29 (Green Bay to Menominee).

[walleye26]

Based upon the recent special elections, it seems like if Barnes will outperform anywhere, it'll be in the Madison area. However, Madison is still only about 1/10th of the state, he'll have to find support elsewhere.

Idk if it's just me, but I really don't trust Waukesha County specifically as despite the County shifting to Biden and generally moving left, it doesn't seem like most of that shift is due to fundamental change within the electorate. The only County that seems true for is Ozaukee Couty where you see some very clear spillover of liberal whites and even some minorities.

I think it’ll be interesting to see. I think Ozaukee will definitely vote left of Waukesha, but Waukesha County is very college-educated. I feel like it will be like a dam giving way; if Waukesha really does see a 7-8% shift left this year, I highly doubt Ron Jon wins. Evers won statewide while getting 33% there, and if Barnes is putting up Biden numbers in Waukesha you can stick a fork in RonJon.