WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?
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  WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?
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Author Topic: WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?  (Read 66088 times)
Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #200 on: June 29, 2021, 10:44:07 PM »

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.
[/b]
Yeah, you vote in that insurrectionist sympathizer and all around quack!  That'll show those DC aristocrats!

Yes, if you live in Wisconsin and want to 'disprove the DC-minded concept of electability,' how about flipping a Senate seat blue in a swing state during a good GOP year? Of course, you could just elect the rich businessman and politician who doesn't think your vote is legitimate if you live in a swing state (I imagine you do; your image and comment suggest you reside in Wisconsin) and voted for Biden to a third term in the Senate.

And if you want to disprove the concept of electability, you should move to Illinois' 16th District and cast your vote in 2022 in the GOP primary for Adam Kinzinger - one of the 10 House Republicans who chose integrity and honesty over insurrection - because it currently seems like he will not win remomination.
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Pollster
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« Reply #201 on: June 30, 2021, 09:46:31 AM »
« Edited: June 30, 2021, 12:59:59 PM by Pollster »

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.
[/b]
Yeah, you vote in that insurrectionist sympathizer and all around quack!  That'll show those DC aristocrats!

Yes, if you live in Wisconsin and want to 'disprove the DC-minded concept of electability,' how about flipping a Senate seat blue in a swing state during a good GOP year? Of course, you could just elect the rich businessman and politician who doesn't think your vote is legitimate if you live in a swing state (I imagine you do; your image and comment suggest you reside in Wisconsin) and voted for Biden to a third term in the Senate.

And if you want to disprove the concept of electability, you should move to Illinois' 16th District and cast your vote in 2022 in the GOP primary for Adam Kinzinger - one of the 10 House Republicans who chose integrity and honesty over insurrection - because it currently seems like he will not win remomination.

Certainly the Wisconsin Republicans must have somebody more electable than the incumbent two-term Senator who has won multiple competitive elections.

All kidding aside, I think many observers (particularly in partisan media) tend to conflate "inspires the most impassioned support/opposition" with "is popular/unpopular" when this is almost never the case. I really don't see how Johnson isn't at least somewhat favored at the moment, with the potential to lose ground if the climate begins to favor Democrats. I suspect he knows this, which is why he's waiting as long as possible to announce his re-election.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #202 on: June 30, 2021, 06:20:38 PM »

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.
[/b]
Yeah, you vote in that insurrectionist sympathizer and all around quack!  That'll show those DC aristocrats!

Yes, if you live in Wisconsin and want to 'disprove the DC-minded concept of electability,' how about flipping a Senate seat blue in a swing state during a good GOP year? Of course, you could just elect the rich businessman and politician who doesn't think your vote is legitimate if you live in a swing state (I imagine you do; your image and comment suggest you reside in Wisconsin) and voted for Biden to a third term in the Senate.

And if you want to disprove the concept of electability, you should move to Illinois' 16th District and cast your vote in 2022 in the GOP primary for Adam Kinzinger - one of the 10 House Republicans who chose integrity and honesty over insurrection - because it currently seems like he will not win remomination.

Certainly the Wisconsin Republicans must have somebody more electable than the incumbent two-term Senator who has won multiple competitive elections.

All kidding aside, I think many observers (particularly in partisan media) tend to conflate "inspires the most impassioned support/opposition" with "is popular/unpopular" when this is almost never the case. I really don't see how Johnson isn't at least somewhat favored at the moment, with the potential to lose ground if the climate begins to favor Democrats. I suspect he knows this, which is why he's waiting as long as possible to announce his re-election.

This, this, this. (I'm been repeatedly trying to make this case with regard to Whitmer, who is constantly deemed particularly unpopular but in reality has routinely average/unremarkable approvals with the general electorate.)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #203 on: June 30, 2021, 06:42:09 PM »

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.
[/b]
Yeah, you vote in that insurrectionist sympathizer and all around quack!  That'll show those DC aristocrats!

Yes, if you live in Wisconsin and want to 'disprove the DC-minded concept of electability,' how about flipping a Senate seat blue in a swing state during a good GOP year? Of course, you could just elect the rich businessman and politician who doesn't think your vote is legitimate if you live in a swing state (I imagine you do; your image and comment suggest you reside in Wisconsin) and voted for Biden to a third term in the Senate.

And if you want to disprove the concept of electability, you should move to Illinois' 16th District and cast your vote in 2022 in the GOP primary for Adam Kinzinger - one of the 10 House Republicans who chose integrity and honesty over insurrection - because it currently seems like he will not win remomination.

Certainly the Wisconsin Republicans must have somebody more electable than the incumbent two-term Senator who has won multiple competitive elections.

All kidding aside, I think many observers (particularly in partisan media) tend to conflate "inspires the most impassioned support/opposition" with "is popular/unpopular" when this is almost never the case. I really don't see how Johnson isn't at least somewhat favored at the moment, with the potential to lose ground if the climate begins to favor Democrats. I suspect he knows this, which is why he's waiting as long as possible to announce his re-election.

This, this, this. (I'm been repeatedly trying to make this case with regard to Whitmer, who is constantly deemed particularly unpopular but in reality has routinely average/unremarkable approvals with the general electorate.)

Lol unless Biden is at 44% Approvals Rs aren't gonna win the Senate or 278 Govs, they are gonna win the H, but cracking the blue wall they're not, the Rs can win GA, but D's are gonna win AZ, NH, WI, PA and MI Senate races
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #204 on: July 03, 2021, 02:43:23 AM »

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.
[/b]
Yeah, you vote in that insurrectionist sympathizer and all around quack!  That'll show those DC aristocrats!

Yes, if you live in Wisconsin and want to 'disprove the DC-minded concept of electability,' how about flipping a Senate seat blue in a swing state during a good GOP year? Of course, you could just elect the rich businessman and politician who doesn't think your vote is legitimate if you live in a swing state (I imagine you do; your image and comment suggest you reside in Wisconsin) and voted for Biden to a third term in the Senate.

And if you want to disprove the concept of electability, you should move to Illinois' 16th District and cast your vote in 2022 in the GOP primary for Adam Kinzinger - one of the 10 House Republicans who chose integrity and honesty over insurrection - because it currently seems like he will not win remomination.

I don't think Wisconsin voters really think like this. The state has a long history of electing people of rather unmoderate ideology because they appear genuine to the voters. Ron Johnson has said a whole bunch of things that are difficult to defend in Wisconsin, no doubt, but that he is willing to speak his mind freely instead of regurgitating overly neutered talk points is more appealing that you think. Electability is definitely a thing, but Wisconsinites don't think the way DC talking heads think they do. As a result, people who have never lived in Wisconsin may have some difficulty in understanding how many people could be Walker/Baldwin voters.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #205 on: July 09, 2021, 12:45:22 PM »



Ok wig!
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #206 on: July 09, 2021, 12:46:57 PM »

Dang it, I was hoping Mandela wouldn't get in because I really like Chris Larson. I also really like Mandela.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #207 on: July 09, 2021, 12:59:09 PM »

Dang it, I was hoping Mandela wouldn't get in because I really like Chris Larson. I also really like Mandela.

Chris Larson is trash, he talks progressive but he's only for Chris Larson and getting more power for himself. There's a reason he has failed for other offices. Barnes will make Johnson win that seat too.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #208 on: July 09, 2021, 01:00:44 PM »

Dang it, I was hoping Mandela wouldn't get in because I really like Chris Larson. I also really like Mandela.

Chris Larson is trash, he talks progressive but he's only for Chris Larson and getting more power for himself. There's a reason he has failed for other offices. Barnes will make Johnson win that seat too.
Is Godlewski the best bet for flipping that seat?

I'm not an expert in Wisconsin politics but she seems like a strong candidate.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #209 on: July 09, 2021, 01:01:49 PM »

What makes Barnes such a bad candidate?
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Suburbia
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« Reply #210 on: July 09, 2021, 03:25:57 PM »

If Ron Kind forgoes a tough seat in 2022 and runs statewide for Senate, does he have a chance or will Milwaukee and Madison turnout decline because of his opposition to the Floyd police act?

Will Kind be too conservadem for Dane and Milwaukee counties?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #211 on: July 09, 2021, 03:34:58 PM »

Nelson is our nominee, Kind is running for Gov in 2026/ Evers pledged to serve 2T making Kind have the best chance to win in 2026
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #212 on: July 09, 2021, 03:57:21 PM »

I also wonder why Barnes isn't a great candidate??
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #213 on: July 09, 2021, 04:08:20 PM »

I also wonder why Barnes isn't a great candidate??

What makes Barnes such a bad candidate?

Who said he was? I think he's probably the strongest candidate the Dems can put up here (Kind is probably equally strong, but he's not running)
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #214 on: July 09, 2021, 05:25:29 PM »

What makes Barnes such a bad candidate?

Kind would be an A+ recruit. Godlewski a B recruit (nothing against her other than nobody cares about the state treasurer, and as a result low name recognition). She did win statewide, so there’s that.

Nelson is a C- recruit I’d say, everybody else is a D or F.

When I say poor recruit, it’s nothing personal to them, and maybe they could win, but if a radiologist from Marshfield and a Bucks executive are your best recruit, I’m skeptical. But hey, maybe they are charismatic and people really like them and they win

I don’t know as much about some of these folks (and I’m sure you know more than I do), but I get the sense that if nothing else, Alex Lasry is pretty well connected politically and seems to have some real institutional support from the Milwaukee Democratic establishment that was lined up before he even got in the race. 

This does make me wonder if he’s got better political chops than his resume might suggest, although I suppose he could also just be a major WI Democratic donor who is calling in favors.  I imagine we’ll find out sooner rather than later.

I do agree that Kind would probably be our best recruit.  That said, Wisconsin seems to be very much a turnout state at this point, so candidate quality is less important here - at least to a point - than it is in a state like Pennsylvania.

Btw, how would you grade Mandela Barnes as a potential Senate recruit? 
Regarding Lasry, I follow WI politics pretty closely and I haven’t heard of him ever. Maybe he is a connected donor or something that I haven’t seen.

Barnes I think would be a bad recruit, because WOW. After the Jacob Blake shooting, he got on TV with some statement that police are just killers and have a vendetta against black people. I have a feeling that WOW and the Fox Valley would be really turned off by some of his comments, as well as a scandal of continuously unpaid property taxes on his condos in Milwaukee. I don’t think it would play really well in the Fox Valley or WOW, and it’s super easy to run against the city of Milwaukee or Madison in this state. Kind isn’t a “radical Madison liberal” (scary voice in the attack ad) and I don’t think the socialism label would stick to him. I think he would play pretty well in WOW (probably mid to high 30s) and decent in the Fox Valley. He would also have the advantage of padding the margins in the Driftless a bit.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #215 on: July 09, 2021, 06:20:12 PM »

I also wonder why Barnes isn't a great candidate??

What makes Barnes such a bad candidate?

Who said he was? I think he's probably the strongest candidate the Dems can put up here (Kind is probably equally strong, but he's not running)

Godlewski is probably the strongest. Barnes mounted a challenge against loony Lena Taylor but caused a fracture in the black community over it. He’s strongly disliked in the burbs and he also got caught lying about completely his degree. He doesn’t play well.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #216 on: July 09, 2021, 07:06:48 PM »

I also wonder why Barnes isn't a great candidate??

What makes Barnes such a bad candidate?

Who said he was? I think he's probably the strongest candidate the Dems can put up here (Kind is probably equally strong, but he's not running)

Godlewski is probably the strongest. Barnes mounted a challenge against loony Lena Taylor but caused a fracture in the black community over it. He’s strongly disliked in the burbs and he also got caught lying about completely his degree. He doesn’t play well.

Noted. In that case, hopefully Godlewski wins the primary. We have to beat Johnson.
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MargieCat
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« Reply #217 on: July 09, 2021, 08:00:35 PM »

I also wonder why Barnes isn't a great candidate??

What makes Barnes such a bad candidate?

Who said he was? I think he's probably the strongest candidate the Dems can put up here (Kind is probably equally strong, but he's not running)

Godlewski is probably the strongest. Barnes mounted a challenge against loony Lena Taylor but caused a fracture in the black community over it. He’s strongly disliked in the burbs and he also got caught lying about completely his degree. He doesn’t play well.
That's what I thought.

It seems like she is favored to win the primary if Barnes doesn't decide to enter.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #218 on: July 12, 2021, 08:50:35 AM »


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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #219 on: July 12, 2021, 11:13:40 AM »

Looks like Barnes is running
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walleye26
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« Reply #220 on: July 12, 2021, 05:07:43 PM »

I don’t think Barnes would win statewide. The unpaid taxes at his condos, his attempt to primary Lena Taylor left a sore spot in the black community, and his comments after the Kenosha shooting were pretty incendiary, so I could easily see that turning off Crucial* Waukesha County. I mean, maybe I’m wrong, but Kind or Godlewski would be better.

As a sort of joke though, if the Bucks win the NBA finals, Lasry could run on that.

Bonus: even though RonJon only promised two terms, if Barnes is running and looks like he will be the Democrats nominee, he will run too. Mark it.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #221 on: July 12, 2021, 07:24:09 PM »

I'm all in for Godlewski. We can't nominate Barnes.
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redjohn
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« Reply #222 on: July 12, 2021, 08:28:27 PM »

Midterms curse is going to make this seat difficult to flip for either Barnes or Godlewski. Both are good candidates, Barnes seems to have more obvious baggage but Godlewski is relatively unknown in the state and could be extremely damaged by any GOP-run propaganda. Look at what happened to Feingold, a previously respected and former U.S. Senator, in the last weeks of the 2016 campaign.

These candidates are both excellent individuals (and some of the other candidates are quite good on a local level as well), but they aren't candidates who have the special quality to win against Johnson in a midterm.
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walleye26
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« Reply #223 on: July 12, 2021, 08:58:53 PM »

Midterms curse is going to make this seat difficult to flip for either Barnes or Godlewski. Both are good candidates, Barnes seems to have more obvious baggage but Godlewski is relatively unknown in the state and could be extremely damaged by any GOP-run propaganda. Look at what happened to Feingold, a previously respected and former U.S. Senator, in the last weeks of the 2016 campaign.

These candidates are both excellent individuals (and some of the other candidates are quite good on a local level as well), but they aren't candidates who have the special quality to win against Johnson in a midterm.

Everything you say is correct, but I wonder if RJ has shot himself in the foot with his comments since last year.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #224 on: July 12, 2021, 09:31:07 PM »

Wisconsin seems like a fairly intelligent state.  Why do they put up with this nut job?  Aren't the residents embarrassed by him?
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