Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Skill and Chance]

Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them.

AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too

Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point.  CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now.  Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift.

[Skill and Chance]

Those are only like a fraction of the CA votes in, right? So honestly it looks like Ds may sweep all of them.

AP officially called CA25 for Katie Hill, too

Only CA-39 and CA-10 are in doubt at this point.  CA-39 probably leans to Cisneros now.  Denham really could hold on though as that wasn't much of a shift.

Good!   The Northern Cal house map will looks so much more aesthetic with CA-10 as a dem seat!

Well, that was fast.  Apparently his base was disproportionately out and just updated?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061343868216438784

Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory.

Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots.

So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts.  And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then.

[Skill and Chance]

Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120

How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow?

The rest of Pima alone would turn that into a Hobbs lead. Gaynor needs to win the rest of Maricopa to win

So a meaningful amount of Pima is still out?  Does this mean Sinema's lead is now basically insurmountable?

[Skill and Chance]

The 50K from batch A that needs to be reviewed won't be counted for a few more days so tomorrow should be all from McSally's favored batch. This was a mixture of both today and I guess the end of batch A excluding the ones that need to be reviewed.

So if it wasn't all Batch B today, this probably isn't callable yet, but Sinema has to be a 3 or 4 to 1 favorite at this point with some favorable Batch A still out?

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia.

That's because the GA legislature specifically removed presidential EV from the runoff law in 1968 because they wanted to make sure Wallace carried the state.  It would have applied before then.

It does look like the Maine law explicitly excluded presidential EV and now also excludes GEs for state-level offices due to the Maine Supreme Court's ruling.

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know if Maine IRV applies to the electoral votes in the presidential race?  The statewide vote was decided by a plurality in 2016 and given Golden has basically tied the CD in the 1st round and Maine loves independents, a <50% win for Trump in ME-02 is also very plausible on a good Democratic night.

No. Electoral college votes don't get affected by any statewide peculiarities (for lack of a better term) like RCV in Maine or runoffs in Georgia.

That's because the GA legislature specifically removed presidential EV from the runoff law in 1968 because they wanted to make sure Wallace carried the state.  It would have applied before then.

It does look like the Maine law explicitly excluded presidential EV and now also excludes GEs for state-level offices due to the Maine Supreme Court's ruling.

Right. I forgot about that. Wouldn't that have a constitutional problem if a presidential runoff were to happen because GA runoffs are held after the EC convenes though?

IDK how GA runoff dates have or haven't changed since 1968, but a modern EV runoff would have to be held in December. 

[Skill and Chance]

Is this confirmed Bucket B votes?  If so, AZ-SEN is over and the Dem is favored for Secretary of State.

[Skill and Chance]

Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the other senate seat then Hobbs will become the new governor.

What if he appoints himself before Hobbs takes office? Will the current Republican SoS move up and stay until 2022?

Probably, although I think Ducey does not get along well at all with her and wouldn't do that.  Also, all but 1 of the Senate self-appointees have gone on to lose the seat.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think he could do that. If he does it before his current term expires then the elevated SoS will just finish the rest of his current term. When the day comes for the governor to be sworn in for the new term then the newly elected SoS will take the oath.

That makes sense. Tbh it happening like that did not seem right but I'd never even thought about it before so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Overall, very satisfied with the way things worked out in Arizona, all things considered. Didn't we almost flip the state House too?

No, because Reagan is leaving office in January. Not that he’d do something as politically suicidal as this, but in this hypothetical scenario. The reason Hobbs winning is a big deal is because it robs the NRSC of their top 2020 Arizona Senate recruit and it puts her in an excellent position to become governor (the Arizona curse) either by ascension or election in her own right in 2022

Frankly even without that added bonus of denying them a good recruit, I'd still be overjoyed. It's a sign of progress in a state we need but also one that hasn't been too kind to us in the past. Not to mention finally being in a position to address their horrid track record on administering elections.

It's now 31R/29D.  The Senate looks like it stayed 17R/13D, although the 17th R barely leads in an uncalled race in Maricopa.

[Skill and Chance]

Pinal posted, essentially no change in the Senate race, Gaynor is back in front by 259 votes.

All of Pinal?  Unless there really is heavily Republican stuff left in Maricopa, Hobbs is going to win with Pima (doesn't even matter for Sinema at this point).

[Skill and Chance]

We shouldn't have ignored that poll from Coronado.

He's clearly out in 2020 unless Trump wins his CD.

[Skill and Chance]

Walters is almost surely going to lose now.

[Skill and Chance]

How is AZ SoS looking now?

[Skill and Chance]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

[Skill and Chance]

Suspect McAdams loses and Bordeaux wins with the Gwinnett provisionals.

why would mcadams lose? consensus seems to be he is the favorite.

Utah County growing extremely fast and therefore ratio of remaining Utah County to SLC being underestimated based on 2014 results.

[Skill and Chance]

Salt Lake County tightened some more in its latest update.  McAdams' lead falls to less than 1000 votes...

[Skill and Chance]

Hobbs (D) has expanded her lead to just over 6000 votes for Arizona SoS.