Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Storr]

Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.

I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester.

There is still a quarter of the vote not reported in Arizona.

[CellarDoor]

Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.

I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester.

Sinema still has a shot.  There are approximately 500K ballots still left to be counted (early vote).  Clinton gained a couple percentage points post election day in 2016.

[Gass3268]

Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.

I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester.

The margin has since dropped to 30,000 votes.

Someone just said that there is a ton of absentee and provisional ballots too.

[user12345]

McBath is up over Handel again according to NYT. CNN as well.

Is it enough to avoid a runoff though?

NYT has her at 50.3 and CNN has her at 50.5. So hopefully.

[Sestak]

McBath is up over Handel again according to NYT. CNN as well.

Is it enough to avoid a runoff though?

Only 2 candidates. No one else to hold both below 50; there will be no runoff.

[Ben.]

So, uh.

WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03.

Trump's "God like status" in WV-03 was too much it seems.

WV-03 was Manchin's worst district, was his best in '12 IIRC?

Didn't polls forecast Manchin winning it by 20+ points? Did the Trump visits make a difference?

[Storr]

So, uh.

WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03.

Yeah...Ojeda went down in flames. Well, at least WV will very likely be losing a congressional seat after the next census.

[Gass3268]

So, uh.

WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03.

Even in West Virginia we saw the urban-suburban/rural divide. Manchin won all of the counties with decent sized cities in them (Kanawha, Cabell, Monongalia, Ohio, Marion) plus the DC suburban county (Jefferson), while losing many places in traditional Democratic coal country. This bled down ballot.

[Zaybay]

So, uh.

WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03.

Even in West Virginia we saw the urban-suburban/rural divide. Manchin won all of the counties with decent sized cities in them (Kanawha, Cabell, Monongalia, Ohio, Marion) plus the DC suburban county (Jefferson), while losing many places in traditional Democratic coal country. This bled down ballot.

Yep, its official, the D suburban and R rural trend is completely real, and is continuing. TBH, I wouldnt be surprised if in the 2020 guber race, the D wins while losing the 3rd.

[Ben.]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

[Sestak]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

That’s...in an hour, right?

[MillennialModerate]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

Half a million?

That’s a typo right

[Comrade Funk]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

That sounds promising.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

Is that 10am MST?

[CellarDoor]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

Half a million?

That’s a typo right

Nope.  potentially 1/4 of the total vote.  The ~500K are from early voting.  Good chance it helps Sinema.  Clinton gained a few percentage points from counting post election day in 2016.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

Half a million?

That’s a typo right

That's some Florida 2000 level of uncounted votes haha

[ajc0918]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

Half a million?

That’s a typo right

Closer to 480k I think but yes

[Ben.]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

Is that 10am MST?

Think so.

Source: https://twitter.com/brahmresnik

[Badger]

Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.

I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester.

Arizona?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

That's way more early votes than 2016. That's a good sign for Sinema.

[CellarDoor]

That's way more early votes than 2016. That's a good sign for Sinema.

Are these votes supposed to lean that D?

We don't know for sure, but it's possible.  Clinton continued to decrease the margin in AZ in 2016 after election day by a couple percent.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

That's way more early votes than 2016. That's a good sign for Sinema.

Are these votes supposed to lean that D?

If it's Maricopa and AZ-01, that means that there's potentially swaths of Pima still out, where Sinema has been running up margins. The Maricopa total is the big question -- essentially, who's voting early?

[The Vorlon]

Rosendale is ahead by 3097 votes.

"Assuming" the SOS site is correct and there are only 4311 votes yet to be counted, Tester would needed 85.8% of the ballots to go his way to win.

JON TESTER   199175   
MATT ROSENDALE   202262   
RICK BRECKENRIDGE   11891   
      
TOTAL VOTES COUNTED   413328   
      
Total Turnout   417639   
      
Remaining Votes   4311   
      
Rosendale lead   3087   
      
Tester Needs to win   3699          85.80%

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

How long is it going to take to get the rest of MT in?

[Thatkat04]

Apparently theres 100,000 uncounted ballots from Pima county. Sinema won that county by 12 points. I think some of you were far too quick writing Sinema's obituaries last night.