Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Storr]

I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount.

I'm not sure if it's enough to flip it, but the city of New Haven is still only at 3%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever.

https://twitter.com/KCStar/status/1060049222077157376

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So, whats the latest n Montana? It seems to be the last open senate seat up for grabs tonight since Arizona won't likely be called for another day or two.

I think Tester will win and it won't even be that close.  The remaining vote is heavily weighted toward Gallatin and Missoula.

[Tintrlvr]

I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount.

I'm not sure if it's enough to flip it, but the city of New Haven is still only at 3%.

Maybe not alone, but the city of Hartford is only at 8%, East Hartford has reported nothing, and Norwalk has also reported nothing. Lamont has at least 25,000 net votes outstanding from those places. He'll win.

Edit: Norwalk dropped and gave Lamont net 8,000 votes. He's now down just 13,000. That should be made up by just one of New Haven or Hartford.

[Badger]

I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount.

I'm not sure if it's enough to flip it, but the city of New Haven is still only at 3%.

Maybe not alone, but the city of Hartford is only at 8%, East Hartford has reported nothing, and Norwalk has also reported nothing. Lamont has at least 25,000 net votes outstanding from those places. He'll win.

Last I heard on one of these threads was that Lamont was losing Hartford. I'm not an expert on Connecticut politics, but that sounded odd to me.

[Hammy]

I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount.

Most of the outstanding vote seems to be from Hartford (8% with east at 0%) and Stratford (0%) as per CNN's map which is at 99% otherwise

[Storr]

I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount.

I'm not sure if it's enough to flip it, but the city of New Haven is still only at 3%.

Maybe not alone, but the city of Hartford is only at 8%, East Hartford has reported nothing, and Norwalk has also reported nothing. Lamont has at least 25,000 net votes outstanding from those places. He'll win.

Wow, I missed Hartford. It's still interesting how close this race has been.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously.

Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling.

I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters?

If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem?

If Dems won by 20?

Should Dems need to win by 25?

What would be the appropriate threshold?

Dems should never have failed to take back the senate in 2016 in the first place. That whole election was unforgivable as we're still paying for it.

2016 was not the voter's fault either. It was the electoral system's fault.

The voters voted for Democrats in 2016 just as they voted for Democrats in 2018 (although they voted more for Dems in 2018 than 2016).

Dems won more votes in the Senate in 2016. Dems won more votes for the Presidency also.

If America had a legitimate representative democratic Goverment, Dems would have won in 2016. Just like Dems would have won the Senate elections in 2018 if the U.S. Senate were a legitimate institution worthy of our respect.

And despite lack of a legitimate representative democratic government in the House (gerrymandering), Dems nonetheless won the House.

Don't blame the voters for not being represented by the system. Blame the system for not representing the voters.

[Tintrlvr]

I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount.

I'm not sure if it's enough to flip it, but the city of New Haven is still only at 3%.

Maybe not alone, but the city of Hartford is only at 8%, East Hartford has reported nothing, and Norwalk has also reported nothing. Lamont has at least 25,000 net votes outstanding from those places. He'll win.

Last I heard on one of these threads was that Lamont was losing Hartford. I'm not an expert on Connecticut politics, but that sounded odd to me.

I think they meant Hartford County, which was true earlier in the night because the strongly D towns and cities report late. City of Hartford will be 75%+ Lamont when it drops.

[Jeppe]

Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever.

https://twitter.com/KCStar/status/1060049222077157376

Not really, by state constitution, the Missouri state auditor picks somebody to draw legislative disitricts!

[user12345]

Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever.

https://twitter.com/KCStar/status/1060049222077157376

Not really, by state constitution, the Missouri state auditor picks somebody to draw legislative disitricts!

The Auditor, House Majority and Minority leaders now. 2 Dems and 1 Republican get to decide who draws the lines now.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Posters have not come to terms with how undemocratic the senate is.

Yeah, it will take some time for people to come to terms with it. In a way, given that Dems lost a good # of seats, it almost would have been better if Dems had also lost WV (and MT assuming Tester pulls it out). That would make no immediate difference in terms of policy, since nothing will get passed anyway, but might quicken the process of people realizing that something has to change in the Senate.

I am not happy about the Dem Senate losses, but I do hope that it helps to clarify the problem to more people. To anyone who is still not clear on it, just consider that WV, for example, is certainly going to be lost in 2024 regardless of whether Manchin is still around or not. AL will likewise basically for sure be lost in 2020, unless maybe Rs make a really huge own goal.

And Dems are not going to ever compete for Senate seats in states like TN etc again any time in the reasonable future. So any thoughts about "Dems can still win Senate seats in deep red states" should not be thrown out the window. It is never going to happen

[Hammy]

Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever.

https://twitter.com/KCStar/status/1060049222077157376

Not really, by state constitution, the Missouri state auditor picks somebody to draw legislative disitricts!

Not much but I'll take it at least!

Interesting thing going on with Montana, Tester still behind but shrank the margin from 4k to 3k between the 66% and 75% mark in vote counting. Not gone yet (still could be) but the margin is shrinking which is always good. It'll be extremely close regardless.

[Storr]

Posters have not come to terms with how undemocratic the senate is.

Yeah, it will take some time for people to come to terms with it. In a way, given that Dems lost a good # of seats, it almost would have been better if Dems had also lost WV (and MT assuming Tester pulls it out). That would make no immediate difference in terms of policy, since nothing will get passed anyway, but might quicken the process of people realizing that something has to change in the Senate.

I am not happy about the Dem Senate losses, but I do hope that it helps to clarify the problem to more people. To anyone who is still not clear on it, just consider that WV, for example, is certainly going to be lost in 2024 regardless of whether Manchin is still around or not. AL will likewise basically for sure be lost in 2020, unless maybe Rs make a really huge own goal.

And Dems are not going to ever compete for Senate seats in states like TN etc again any time in the reasonable future. So any thoughts about "Dems can still win Senate seats in deep red states" should not be thrown out the window. It is never going to happen

It would be more fair if Puerto Rico, DC, Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and the Marianas (Guam + Northern Marianas) were states...

[Tintrlvr]

Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever.

https://twitter.com/KCStar/status/1060049222077157376

Not really, by state constitution, the Missouri state auditor picks somebody to draw legislative disitricts!

For the state legislature only, or do they control congressional redistricting also? The latter might be significant, the former probably not so much as I can't see the Democrats winning the Missouri state legislature on a fair map any more than an R gerrymander.

[IceSpear]

LMAO MSNBC just said:

"If you would've told people that Republicans would be gaining Senate seats, everyone would've assumed Heller was safe!"

LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! God these "analysts" are clowns.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Absolutely. Thanks to Hillary Clinton. Dems should have won FL, WI, PA, NC, IN & MO. All 6 were winnable. If atleast 3 or 4 would have been won, then maybe their would be a Dem Senate & no Kavanaugh, no Tax cuts for Billionaires.

2016 was unforgivable !

I didn't vote for Hillary Clinton either (in the Dem primary), but the voters did. Both in the primary and the general election (and I voted for her in that). And likewise the voters voted for Democrats to control the Senate in 2016.

So don't blame the voters for the failures of the American electoral system, it is not their fault.

[Ye We Can]

CNN has Stefanowski up by 1 with 99 percent in?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

FWIW, FL-Sen is now within auto-recount territory.

[Tintrlvr]

CNN has Stefanowski up by 1 with 99 percent in?

The 1% is the cities of Hartford, East Hartford and New Haven. Lamont wins.

[Storr]

FWIW, FL-Sen is now within auto-recount territory.

It's not over 'til it's over.

[Tintrlvr]

FWIW, FL-Sen is now within auto-recount territory.

Whoa. What happened? It just tightened significantly. I don't think a recount could overcome a 39,000 vote deficit, but *maybe* provisionals could make a significant dent in that.

[Shadows]

So, whats the latest n Montana? It seems to be the last open senate seat up for grabs tonight since Arizona won't likely be called for another day or two.

I think Tester will win and it won't even be that close.  The remaining vote is heavily weighted toward Gallatin and Missoula.

Big portion of Missoula is left. He can make 15,000 votes there & he is down by 4000. This is not hard. Gianforte is up 23,000 so he is possibly safe. He will make it by 10,000+ or so.

Dems need to get Bullock to run for the Senate & need to recruit a strong candidate for the House. Montana looks promising !

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Holy crap, the Texas gerrymander almost collapsed.

I haven't looked at the state legislative results, but given the Congressional and Senate results I am sure there must be some shocking GOP losses and surprising close calls all over the TX megacities.

[Badger]

Another query. Does anyone have news on what the national popular vote share for the house is? How many points did the Democrats win by?