Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

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Its probably an inevitable result of the SNP having been dominant so long now, but they are really descending into near labour levels of factional war. Their executive's blatant manoeuvring to block the Edinburgh Southwestern MP (prominent FBPE QC with dodgy views on the Gender Reform Act) Joanna Cherry from running for Edinburgh Central was so aggressive that it alone suggests the internal culture of the party that is seriously unhealthy. Almost no one will vote on this of course (nor did they in 2019 over the Salmond Sturgeon rift), but its the type of thing that turns a gradual decline which has initiated for other reasons into a collapse.

The exam situation really did cut through, so much so that it was the first time I've ever seen my normally apolitical but otherwise generically left wing facebook feed burst into specific criticism of the SNP, though I don't expect it on its own to have an impact either. The same goes for the shocking excess death figures which Al alluded to, and the pronounced decline in the education system more generally.

Why? Well, the scottish electorate vote based almost entirely of their own stance on the constitution, there is an almost one to one correlation between SNP voters and supporters of independence. That doesn't mean that the electorate care more about flags than real issues, just that they now view those real issues through the prism of the constitution- to fix healthcare we need to get Westminster's claws off it, to support jobs we need frictionless travel with England. Attacking the SNP on their record, though frankly the only option available to the unionist parties, isn't going to work if its merely a laundry list of things they've got wrong, because the electorate look at policy through a constitutional lens. This is another way of saying they're unduly receptive to shifting the blame to Westminster, because it is so intuitively plausible that the UK government decide everything and so obvious that the UK government are hostile to Scotland. What you need to do is find errors in areas that the scottish government are acknowledged to be completely in control of, and prosecute them without in anyway defending the hideously unpopular British Government. This is vital because if you are associate with them this will immediately nix any chance of the electorate accepting your argument as a good faith one, and once you've lost that they will assume that you're lying about the scottish governments control over and responsibility for the errors in the first place. Its a tough needle to thread, and I have no confidence in any of the unionist politicians to do so, which is why I'm not expecting the bubble to burst anytime soon.

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A lot will depend upon what the changes Sturgeon has committed to making actually involve. If they're substantial, the story probably goes away. If they're cosmetic and seen as such, then it could keep running.

So now we know what Sturgeon's response is, complete capitulation:

Tens of thousands of school pupils are to have their exam results upgraded after the Scottish government agreed to accept teacher estimates of scores.

The government u-turn follows an outcry from pupils after a moderation system saw 125,000 estimated results being downgraded.

All results that were downgraded will now be withdrawn and replaced by the original estimates.

Which, regardless of whether this is the best policy (I would say it is, but only from the perspective that if the fairness and integrity of the exam system was my aim I wouldn't be starting from here) this will almost certainly avoid lasting damage on this specifically, though the hope for other parties is that if you're clumsy once you'll soon be clumsy again.

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This should probably be merged into the existing thread (which admittedly had sunk to the third page).

They are indeed scheduled for May 6th, but its not yet certain that that's when they'll happen - the scottish parliament gave itself the power to do that for up to 6 months in november, and may well exercise it, given a couple of months might be all thats needed to run a substantially normal election and campaign as opposed to a postal one. There's not too long to wait though, because they'll have to make a decision by the end of march at the latest.

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Richard Leonard has resigned as leader of Scottish Labour with immediate effect.

I don't think anyone was expecting this now, especially after he successfully beat back a half hearted coup in September, but you also couldn't say its a massive surprise- Labour's numbers have been consistently dire enough that this was always a possibility from Leonard, who whatever you think of his leadership ability (and the fact that the scottish electorates verdict on him after 3 years is still "Who?" suggests its not great) is a fundamentally decent and unselfish man who wants the party to succeed. There should just be enough time for a permanent leader to be chosen for the campaign, whenever that is. The options aren't great, from the right I'd expect Anas Sarwar will likely run again and probably be the favourite, a few years ago you'd have expected the left candidate to have been Neil Findlay (but he's retiring) or former deputy leader Alex Rowley (who has basically receded from the spotlight after a sex scandal), now I'd expect it might be perennial candidate and Glasgow Councillor Matt Kerr.

There is no reason to expect a sudden reversal in the parties fortune- their problems long predate Leonard and are more fundamental than any leader, especially one who gets the press coverage of a third part, can change by themselves- but it is probably a necessary move, if you can't make people recognise you after three years you're probably not ever going to do so.

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I voted in Edinburgh Southern at about 12:30 and for the first time in my life there was a queue. Even with the caveat of social distancing and them having changed the polling station from the primary school to a church hall, I am thus able to make the following rating change.

EDINBURGH SOUTHERN TURNOUT

TOSSUP ----------------> LEAN BRISK

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I voted in Edinburgh Southern at about 12:30 and for the first time in my life there was a queue. Even with the caveat of social distancing and them having changed the polling station from the primary school to a church hall, I am thus able to make the following rating change.

EDINBURGH SOUTHERN TURNOUT

TOSSUP ----------------> LEAN BRISK

What's the feeling 'on the ground' about the SNP's chances? Edinburgh Southern voted strongly against independence, but it looks like the unionist vote was split heavily in 2016 so the SNP came very close.

I can't say I have any special insight, work has taken me away from home for the duration of the pandemic. What I would say is that Labour are much safer than the numerical majority would suggest for a couple of reasons. 2016 was an eon ago in scottish politics (before, among other things, Brexit) and the tories claim that they were the best unionist choice, which may have had some purchase then has lost all plausibility now, while Ian Murray very comfortably held South (the boundaries are slightly different but if anything Southern is less favourable to the SNP) even in 2019.

Fundamentally, even with fewer students this is close to the perfect seat for Scottish Labour (and not, as I am tired of tories insisting online, the conservatives - unionist tactical voting does not explain why they haven't held it since 1987, no constituency with similar demographics (dominated by a university, city centre, 75% remain) is remotely competitive for them in england), which is why it was a gain in the general meltdown of 2016, and with a reasonably strong incumbent and the party doing as well if not better than then there is no real reason for it to be lost.

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SNP win Clydebank and Milngavie by 5k - their vote share stayed more or less the same but a fair bit of tactical voting for Labour.

If anything it's 'loaned' votes going back to Labour.

Yeah I think this is the conclusion you can draw from the perthshire north vote and the rumblings around Edinburgh Central- that some centre left unionists were willing to lend a vote to davidson specifically in 2016 to stop the snp (pre brexit among other things) but the parties conduct since then means they are no longer willing to do so.

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SNP win Clydebank and Milngavie by 5k - their vote share stayed more or less the same but a fair bit of tactical voting for Labour.

If anything it's 'loaned' votes going back to Labour.

Yeah I think this is the conclusion you can draw from the perthshire north vote and the rumblings around Edinburgh Central- that some centre left unionists were willing to lend a vote to davidson specifically in 2016 to stop the snp (pre brexit among other things) but the parties conduct since then means they are no longer willing to do so.

This deduction makes no sense. Why on earth would Labour inclined unionists 'tactically' vote for the Tories somewhere like Clydebank when clearly the former has a far, far better chance of beating the SNP? If anything left-leaning unionists voting Tory in Central Belt seat would massively help the SNP.

I think its a mistake to overstate the savviness of the average voter, the knowledge of which parties are in contention in an area is shaped not by looking at results but by how active a campaign is and what their leaflets are saying, and this will be especially true in a country where the entire political map had been wiped clean 2 years prior.  Tory literature in 2016 (and ever since, tbh) was basically completely devoid of any content other than saying repeatedly only a vote for us is a vote against indyref 2, and its not far fetched that a few low information voters bought that.

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That's a really poor result for the tories- Banff and Buchan was the only seat they had an absolute majority in 2019

What you say about the knowledge of the average voter about electoral politics is true. However the Tories seem to have done well in Aberdeen Donside (with Labour doing poorly) where they narrowly squeaked into second in 2016. I would be interested to see results like Cunninghame North which like Donside is a 'traditionally Labour' constituency where the Tories managed second in 2016. If the Tories increase in seats like this and Labour decrease (I'm not saying that this will happen) it will add credibility the ' unionist tactical voting' theory and would rather discredit the 'Labour-Davidson unionists switching back'. We'll have to wait and see for the full picture though.

Yeah this is fair enough, every take is provisional at this stage of the results, we'll need to see some more of the central belt to know for sure.

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I wouldn't say Banffshire & Buchan Coast was a 'really poor result' for the Tories. They won Banff & Buchan by less than 10% in 2019 and the more Tory friendly rural parts of that seat are in the Aberdeenshire East Scottish parliamentary seat instead (that will be an interesting constituency when it comes in). It's a bit of a Tory underperformance vis-à-vis 2019 but it's hardly catastrophic.

A bit of a tory underperformance vis a vis 2019 is catastrophic.

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

No, see here. Basically the more constituency seats you get the harder it is to get a regional seat even if you get the same proportion of the vote across both, but even this won't be the case because the greens will mean that the snp's regional vote is lower than their constituency one.

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Lib Dems hold Shetland on a 19 point swing to the SNP.

And then on the other side of the coin Rennie won East Fife with a large personal vote that consolidated the unionist behind him.

Wow, Methil is not a place you'd expect the lib dems to do well in.

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Can we please keep the politics out the election threads? There are plenty of other spaces for that sort of stuff.

Anyway, to put up back on topic, tomorrow may bring surprises for the SNP. We have so far seen two clear trends. One, the Unionists know who is most viable in their seat and are consolidating not entirely but well enough. Two, the SNP are on average doing the same but better in their targets. There are quite a few Northeast, Edinburgh, and southern seats where marginal Unionist consolidation could top the SNP. So yeah, the fight continues to remain within the margins.

No idea where you're getting this from apart from maybe a desire for drama, there are two changes that are in any way consistent with the declared results so far, the snp losing perthshire south and the tories losing aberdeenshire west, and frankly even these don't look particularly likely.

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Lib Dems hold Shetland on a 19 point swing to the SNP.

And then on the other side of the coin Rennie won East Fife with a large personal vote that consolidated the unionist behind him.

Wow, Methil is not a place you'd expect the lib dems to do well in.

As a North East Fife voter, I have to tell you that Methil is actually just over the constituency border in the Kirkcaldy constituency.

If Methil was in the seat, we'd be as safe SNP as Glasgow Kelvin.

Its worth reading Oryxslayer's post very carefully, and then thinking about Methil's football team...