Alberta Election 2019

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet has their quarterly mega poll and for Alberta they have the following:

UCP 52.3%
NDP 27.8%
Alberta party7.7%
Liberal 6.1%
Green 3%
FCP 2.4%

So on the surface UCP has a pretty big lead meaning unless they screw up badly they are heavily favoured.  Interesting that 14% are voting for centrist parties so will be interesting does that hold or do many vote strategically either NDP or UCP to stop whom they least want to win.  The one good news NDP has is on personal ratings Notley scores above her party and Kenney below so that would suggest it is more likely the gap will narrow than widen.


Notley: 36.9% Approve 49.3% disapprove
Kenney: 39.7% Approve 33.1% disapprove.

It will definitely be an interesting election. I feel like this is the most confident a government down by 25% has been going into an election in a long time haha.

I did some work last year to come up with new vote margins following the redistribution, if anyone's interested.

Definitely interested.

[DC Al Fine]

Sure that would be great.

[DC Al Fine]

What differences in demographics and/or ideology lead Calgary and Edmonton to vote so differently?

A lot more people dependent on the oil industry in Calgary I imagine.

Also, Edmonton is the capital, so it has a lot of civil servants.

Yes. It's not a perfect 1:1 analogy, but the differences are kind of like Houston and Austin.

[DC Al Fine]

I've been sorting through some data from the Alberta electoral district profiles, which use data from the 2016 federal census sorted by provincial riding. Here are some top 10 lists which may be of interest from a political demographics perspective:

Top 10 ridings with the highest visible minority share of the population:
1. Calgary-McCall: 86.1%
2. Calgary-Falconridge: 68.0%
3. Calgary-North: 62.3%
4. Calgary-Cross: 58.9%
5. Edmonton-Ellerslie: 57.3%
6. Edmonton-Meadows: 54.8%
7. Calgary-North East: 54.0%
8. Calgary-Foothills: 50.9%
9. Edmonton-South: 47.7%
10. Calgary-Edgemont: 44.4%

Alberta Average: 23.5%

Which groups are included, and which are represented in these areas?

Not sure about the second question, but in Canada, "Visible Minority" = "Anyone who isn't white or Aboriginal/Métis"

[DC Al Fine]

The UCP's been feeling the heat lately, for a very particular reason. Here's the latest from MacLeans.

Kind of reminds me of Watergate because both scandals seem so foolish and unnecessary. Jean didn't have much (if any) chance of winning even before the kamikaze.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't have access to the Mainstreet daily tracking polls, but it seems like the Alberta and Liberal parties are at risk of getting crushed in a two horse race.

[DC Al Fine]

EKOS poll for Unifor shows a tightening race, 46% for the UCP and 42% for the NDP

Interestingly enough, the regional results make it seem like the UCP wouldn't get screwed by FPTP. The right and left would run up the score in rural Alberta/Edmonton and split Calgary.

So the final election results are:

NDP: 44
UCP: 42
AP: 1

What are the 44 NDP ridings?

I think you'd have to start with the 20 city of Edmonton ridings and the two Edmonton 'inner' suburbs of St. Albert and Sherwood Park.  That's half way there.  What are the rest?

Both Lethbridge seats, Banff, Grand Prairie, a few rural northernish seats like Fort-Saskatchewan-Vegreville. That would leave 12-14ish seats in Calgary, which seems doable in a popular vote tie.

[DC Al Fine]

Debate will be April 4th.

[DC Al Fine]

New poll from Leger

UCP: 47%
NDP: 38%
Alberta: 9%
Liberal: 4%

[DC Al Fine]

I haven't been following this recently and I just realized the election is in less than a week, it looks like the NDP are surging in the polls. Could they even win, or a UCP victory still a sure thing?

There’s a mild chance the NDP could win. As in, 1 in 10 chance. The polls are tightening, but as far as I’m concerned, that impacts how big the opposition to the UCP is.

The CBC's forecast has the NDP's odds at less than 1%, that does seem a bit too low.

That's because the poll tracker isn't projecting out trends. It suggests odds of winning if an election were held today based on their current polling average, which still has the NDP down quite a bit.

[DC Al Fine]

I haven't been following this recently and I just realized the election is in less than a week, it looks like the NDP are surging in the polls. Could they even win, or a UCP victory still a sure thing?

There’s a mild chance the NDP could win. As in, 1 in 10 chance. The polls are tightening, but as far as I’m concerned, that impacts how big the opposition to the UCP is.

How are you voting Njall?

[DC Al Fine]

Two new polls from Angus Reid and Pollara

Angus Reid:52-396

Pollara: 45-388

I suspect the NDP are getting into "couldn't quite get over the hump" territory. Maybe they pull it off if Alberta Party vote collapses (very possible if they are AnyoneButKenney) and there's a polling error.

[DC Al Fine]

My guess:
UCP: 53
NDP: 32
AP: 1

[DC Al Fine]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

Is Khan competitive in Mountainview or is he well behind?

[DC Al Fine]

Turned out to be a snoozer. UCP overperformed and NDP underperformed the polling. I wonder if there was a shy Tory thing going on or if the UCP was just more motivated?

[DC Al Fine]

Poor Rachel. Was it surprising that Greg Clark lost by so much?

Yes. Most people thought he would be re-elected with an increased margin.

[DC Al Fine]

Can the Americans please stop relitigating their country's political disputes on the international threads?