Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Torrain]

ME-02 results incoming:

https://twitter.com/MESecOfState/status/1063083553490124800

It'll be a race to count it though, as Poliquin might be able to persuade the courts to stop the count, if he can get a stay on the counting in time:

https://twitter.com/thisdog/status/1063063275020140545

[Torrain]

Jared Golden is the apparent winner after round two of RCV.

[Torrain]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Nah. He beat an incumbent whom, IMHO, wasn't all that flawed. This is a district Obama won handily in 2008, and by a reasonable margin in 2012. Yes the district trended heavily for Trump, and was the reason LePage got reelected, let's call this a rental is way early and over-exaggerated.

I suspect boring a scandal or wave election, golden has a long career in this District, though I admittedly wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Poliquin’s favorables were disastrous

Let’s not forget that Poliquin was the first Representative to lose re-election in this seat since 1916, so there’s a serious trend being bucked here.

[Torrain]

California vote dump has begun:

[Torrain]

Orange dropped. Cisneros lead at over 3K votes-

We should be getting a call from AP tonight since they called the 45th for Porter when she had a 3K vote lead.

Huh, this is it. Nixon's hometown, and presidential library are about to be represented by a Democrat.

[Torrain]

Update on NY-27

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https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-york/articles/2018-11-16/absentee-ballot-count-continues-in-new-york-house-race

[Torrain]

Update on NY-22

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https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-york/articles/2018-11-16/absentee-ballot-count-continues-in-new-york-house-race

That’s 27. 22 is in Central NY.

Shoot, my bad. I’ll edit the original post to clarify.

[Torrain]

COUNTY   NET GAIN FOLLOWING ABSENTEE BALLOT COUNT
Broome   Brindisi     +1,319   
Chenango   Awaiting Results   
Cortland   Brindisi   +207   
Herkimer   Brindisi     +80   
Madison   Brindisi    +324   
Oneida   Awaiting Results   
Oswego   Tenney.   +80   
Tioga   Awaiting Results   
 
Brindisi's lead is currently 3,223 votes.  Outstanding ballots: 5,538

Not sure why the AP is holding out to call this. Maybe waiting for absentee results from the final two counties.

[Torrain]

CNN has already called the NY-22 Race; They have Brindisi ahead by only 1.827 Votes though.

That's weird, given that they've still got NM-02 out there. I've got no idea how they're making those decisions.

I've been going to NYTimes/AP for calls of individual races, and local news sites for NY22 numbers (the margins I posted are the provisional counts of absentee ballots, that have yet to be certified)

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Ali2e/status/1064556316784566280
https://twitter.com/Ali2e/status/1064569248704532485

[Torrain]

It appears to be over in NY-27:
https://twitter.com/DaveMcKinley2/status/1064996157032681472

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMPAH67f4o

100%.
To think that I wrote this seat off once Romney announced.
It’s crazy to think that Love managed to lose a heavily-gerrymanderred R-leaning seat as many times as she won it.
Almost as weird as the fact that both times coincided with Mitt ‘King of Utah’ Romney’s presence on the ballot. Maybe there’s a quiet anti-Mitt vote in Salt Lake?

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1065033957035642885

[Torrain]

The GA-07 recount will begin at 10am EST today.  Woodall leads by 419 votes (0.14%).

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Glad it's underway. Just want conclusive results at this point, although I'm not hopeful about the margin shifting.

Any word on how long the recount will take?

[Torrain]

Valadao is scum for having the audacity to vote 99% of the time with Trump in a Clinton +16 district. He deserves to be humiliated by losing to a random bankrupt carpetbagging gringo.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Valadao should move to OK-03 and run there instead. He already votes like he represents the Oklahoma Panhandle.

This feels like the basis for a skit where Valadao carpetbags to ever redder (bluer) territory and loses to weaker Democratic candidates each time. A bankrupt no-one in CA, then a corporate lawyer in OK, then an illiterate farmer in Wyoming, until eventually he’s elected in Vermont on a technicality. And is immediately impeached. 

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/JVLast/status/1065332106660913154

That’s the problem with a scorched earth strategy. It p*sses off everyone outside the bunker.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/JVLast/status/1065332106660913154

That’s the problem with a scorched earth strategy. It p*sses off everyone outside the bunker.

Especially if, as FiveThirtyEight pointed out, there aren’t enough people inside the bunker to get you elected: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-base-isnt-enough/amp/

[Torrain]

I love how people are literally spelling out how Trump is doomed in 2020 a few days after a waveish election.

Let me clarify. I’m not declaring victory for 2020 preemptively, in fact I think it’ll be an uphill battle for  Dems to win the presidency or either House of Congress in a close environment, given geography, gerrymandering and the inevitably damaging primary.

I’m just stating that pandering and turning out 38% of a country, while actively seeking to rile up the remaining 62% to ‘own them’, is a near-sighted strategy, which risks the kind of suburban revolt we witnessed last week. When both parties turned out at near presidential levels, it’s not hard to picture a similar environment in two years time.

Of course it would be folly to assume that as a prior, 2012 looked very different from 2010, for example, as did 1994 and 1996. But the key difference between those years and now is the pivot. Clinton and Obama pivoted to the centre and towards policies they could run on.
Trump will refuse to accept the lesson and double-down on his immigration race-baiting, and demonisation of the opposition, with little popular policy to show for his time in office.

In short, there are reasons for Trump opponents to be worried about 2020, but a heck of a lot of reasons to be hopeful.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1067107650507350017

That's gonna make her primary in 2020 a bit harder.

If she were in any other state, I’d say this is proof she’s leaving politics, but in Utah this could be the first stroke in her next run, as a “#nevertrump conservative who’ll bring family values and tax relief back to Washington”.

I’m really not sure she’s done. If Steve Pearce, Ann Kirkpatrick, etc can brush off losses, and return to the game, why not Love? After being hyped as a ‘rising star’ and ‘the future of the party’ for years, it would be pretty hard on the ego to just disappear into obscurity without a fight.

[Torrain]

The hilarity of it all

https://twitter.com/WendyRedFox/status/1037496860745691137

H U B R I S