Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[colincb]

A lot of these California races have gone from D wins to D blowouts, as well as R blowouts to more modest R victories over the past few weeks. Levin is winning by 12, Rouda is winning by 7, Hill is winning by 8...and they're not even done counting yet!

So much for a 2% predicted swing toward the Dems in post-EDay count. CA-21 a 4% swing, CA48 a 5+% swing, etc. Watching the Trumparty bleed to death slowly. Too bad about Hunter though.

[ON Progressive]

Kim was hyped because Republicans (and some others) thought that her being Asian-American would allow her to automatically over perform with the demographic by enough to win big. Oddly enough Republicans rail against identity politics yet were relying on it to retain CA-39 for them.

Republicans only complain about “identity politics” if they aren’t doing it.

[DINGO Joe]

Kim was hyped because Republicans (and some others) thought that her being Asian-American would allow her to automatically over perform with the demographic by enough to win big. Oddly enough Republicans rail against identity politics yet were relying on it to retain CA-39 for them.

Even better is the State Senate seat overlapping this district that a female minority R lost to....a white man!?!?

[wbrocks67]

Is NY-22 going to be called this century or....

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is NY-22 going to be called this century or....

I believe either CNN or the NYT called it for Brindisi before Thanksgiving, but I forget which one.

[politicallefty]

NYT has both NY-22 and NY-27 uncalled, but CA-21 called for Republicans. Pretty sure they just use AP calls.

[Sestak]

We get Kern numbers today, right?

[Tender Branson]

NYT has both NY-22 and NY-27 uncalled, but CA-21 called for Republicans. Pretty sure they just use AP calls.

CA and NY are the states which take longest to count and certify their votes (in early/mid-December or something).

But the 2 NY races are all decided, the CA-21 not.

[politicallefty]

NYT has both NY-22 and NY-27 uncalled, but CA-21 called for Republicans. Pretty sure they just use AP calls.

CA and NY are the states which take longest to count and certify their votes (in early/mid-December or something).

But the 2 NY races are all decided, the CA-21 not.

True, but CA-21 shouldn’t be called. I guess the AP is hoping Valadao wins and their call stands. They definitely screwed up there.

Yeah, I agree on the NY races.

We get Kern numbers today, right?

That’s what I’ve heard, yeah.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1067107650507350017

[2016]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

[Thatkat04]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

All of them should be R-1 because of CA-21.

[2016]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

All of them should be R-1 because of CA-21.

I got a gut feel that Valadao might pull this out.

[Thatkat04]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

All of them should be R-1 because of CA-21.

I got a gut feel that Valadao might pull this out.

We'll probably know by tonight but Nate Cohn, Nate Silver and Harry Enten all seem to think Cox is favored.

[GeorgiaModerate]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

All of them should be R-1 because of CA-21.

I got a gut feel that Valadao might pull this out.

We'll probably know by tonight but Nate Cohn, Nate Silver and Harry Enten all seem to think Cox is favored.

Nate, Nate, and Harry vs. 2016.  I know which side I'd bet on.

[2016]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

All of them should be R-1 because of CA-21.

I got a gut feel that Valadao might pull this out.

We'll probably know by tonight but Nate Cohn, Nate Silver and Harry Enten all seem to think Cox is favored.

Nate, Nate, and Harry vs. 2016.  I know which side I'd bet on.

Cohn, Enten and Silver ARE Clowns.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Any idea when Kern dumps?

[Bidenworth2020]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

All of them should be R-1 because of CA-21.

I got a gut feel that Valadao might pull this out.

We'll probably know by tonight but Nate Cohn, Nate Silver and Harry Enten all seem to think Cox is favored.

Nate, Nate, and Harry vs. 2016.  I know which side I'd bet on.

Cohn, Enten and Silver ARE Clowns.

They are right on this.

[MAINEiac4434]

Poliquin just requested a recount, literlaly one minute before the deadline passed.

[justfollowingtheelections]

So Cnn has called Ca21 for Valadao but has completely forgotten Nm2.  Pathetic!

[Politician]

Poliquin just requested a recount, literlaly one minute before the deadline passed.

Lol

[Person Man]

Poliquin just requested a recount, literlaly one minute before the deadline passed.

Lol

What a baby.

[Nyvin]

Poliquin just requested a recount, literlaly one minute before the deadline passed.

He's such a loser.   Thank god we'll be rid of him.

[cg41386]

They seem to be going ahead with the recount anyway. I can’t stand him.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1067107650507350017

That's gonna make her primary in 2020 a bit harder.