AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[new_patomic]

She'll caucus with the Democrats because there's no power for her if she caucuses with the Republicans.

It won't give the Republicans a majority or control of any committees, just ties, and McConnell doesn't have much reason to give her any special committee assignments. He'd much rather an actual Republican run and win in 2024 especially if she's gearing up for a 3-way race.

Whereas Schumer does still has reason to prefer she keep caucusing with the Democrats, even if her vote is less reliable now. Because 51-49 means Democrats can control every committee and no longer have to rely on discharge petitions to move things to a floor vote.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1601204674954424320?s=20&t=YsaltoTIPQ59rT...

Bizarrely wouldn't polling like this suggest she actually potentially draws more Republicans or Republican-leaning independents than she would Democrats in an independent bid?

[new_patomic]

I have no idea why Schumer would let her keep her committee assignments. She's a consistent problem for him and this latest stunt will do little to endear her to him. We still have the majority without her, so who cares?

You let her keep his assignments as long as she still caucuses with you, because if she caucuses with you that means you control every single committee and can finally start moving nominations forward without relying on discharge petitions.

[new_patomic]

Genuine question but

Do we think Sinema is actually happy being a Senator?

She doesn't really seem to like or enjoy most aspects of being a politician, be it attending caucus meetings or calling stakeholders or doing basic relationship maintenance with state party officials. She doesn't like the press. She's chummy with business groups but my impression is she rarely meets with outside orgs as a whole. I guess she still does townhalls but those are probably pretty curated; she isn't just going to sit there and deal with a bunch of "angry activists."

What aspects of the job do she actually enjoy, or make her happy.

Even with voting, she's been very adamant in the past that her schedule is her schedule and if she has to leave suck it up.

Does she even enjoy this.

[new_patomic]

Genuine question but

Do we think Sinema is actually happy being a Senator?

She doesn't really seem to like or enjoy most aspects of being a politician, be it attending caucus meetings or calling stakeholders or doing basic relationship maintenance with state party officials. She doesn't like the press. She's chummy with business groups but my impression is she rarely meets with outside orgs as a whole. I guess she still does townhalls but those are probably pretty curated; she isn't just going to sit there and deal with a bunch of "angry activists."

What aspects of the job do she actually enjoy, or make her happy.

Even with voting, she's been very adamant in the past that her schedule is her schedule and if she has to leave suck it up.

Does she even enjoy this.

I don't understand how anyone could not enjoy being a Senator. It's one of the easiest jobs in the world, all the hard work is done by staffers. It comes with a great salary and some of the best benefits of any job. The only cushier job would be an ambassadorship to some tropical island nation.

I'm just saying you get the genuine sense that she's upset that other people... expect things, of her, because she's a senator

[new_patomic]

Did Stanton really just casually reveal that his internal polling was looking into primarying her

That's hilarious

[new_patomic]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-way
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

Biased source, but it seems Sinema takes more from Dems than the GOP as expected (despite what many posters here believed)

Taking 14 percent of Biden supporters and 9 percent of Trump supporters which is way more even than the doom some predicted either