IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[VAR]

I want Biden/Trump favorables.

[hyouzel the predictor]

This.

Is.

An.

Outlier.


One great poll for Trump doesn't cancel out 30 great polls for Biden.

[libertpaulian]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251190.msg7710734#msg7710734

Heres the poll from 2016 and forum reaction.

I think people should genuinely take this as a small yellow flag atleast. Im still pretty sure Biden wins but its absurd gaslighting to say one should just entirely discount this poll.

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.

33% voted early in 2016.  Therein lies the difference.

[politicallefty]

I take it this page is gonna reach 6 pages by Midnight EST?


I felt Ohio was likelier to flip than Iowa anyway so I don't get the hysteria.

Were you expecting within 20 minutes?

[LimoLiberal]

What's calmed me down a little bit is the magnitude at which the board has exploded... me in the Doomers thread, the weird red avatar Washington state dude spam posting about diarrhea rape, this thread already having 7 pages. Lmao.

[Senator Spark]

It's over folks

[Buzz]

*** I apologize for the sh*t posting tonight everyone.  I don’t think I’m gonna be having much fun in 3 days, so let me have my moment right now.

[lfromnj]

Waiting for the House polls. I'm expecting that they'll have all the Democrats down like 20% in each district (in IA-4 that wouldn't be surprising though).

The house polls are always junk from selzer and should not be read. The sample size is like 150 each.

[Skye]

Six pages in half an hour, this must be a new record.

Congrats, Atlas. Never change.

[Storr]

What's calmed me down a little bit is the magnitude at which the board has exploded... me in the Doomers thread, the weird red avatar Washington state dude spam posting about diarrhea rape, this thread already having 7 pages. Lmao.

Yeah, I was confused why people were so amped up for some Selzer (like carbonated water?) poll until I looked it up. Maybe Trump wins by this much. But either way, Iowa is definitely not reflective of the entire country. It's a reflection of what Iowa is: white and rural.

[Ljube]

I understand Selzer is great at polling Iowa and that Iowa can predict trends of the white working class. However, Biden is still up by 8.6 in the NPV. Let's say that there's another systematic polling issue in the upper Midwest and Biden is in danger of losing one or more of MN/WI/MI/PA. So if Biden is underperforming his polls in this region, where is that +8.6 coming from? It can't be all from votes in safe blue states, and a lot of the safe red states (like IN, MO, etc.) have similar profile as Iowa and Biden is underperforming there. Let's say Florida is close as usual. Then this suggest to me that in this scenario Biden would be overperforming his polling in the Sun Belt, in particular AZ, TX, GA, and NC, and winning those states. So unless there's a big polling error in the NPV and Biden is actually only up by 4, then I still feel good about Biden's chances.

Biden is not up +8.6. Nevada early vote is consistent with a national margin of Biden+5, possibly Biden+4.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

*** I apologize for the sh*t posting tonight everyone.  I don’t think I’m gonna be having much fun in 3 days, so let me have my moment right now.

That's fair. Proceed.

[libertpaulian]

I understand Selzer is great at polling Iowa and that Iowa can predict trends of the white working class. However, Biden is still up by 8.6 in the NPV. Let's say that there's another systematic polling issue in the upper Midwest and Biden is in danger of losing one or more of MN/WI/MI/PA. So if Biden is underperforming his polls in this region, where is that +8.6 coming from? It can't be all from votes in safe blue states, and a lot of the safe red states (like IN, MO, etc.) have similar profile as Iowa and Biden is underperforming there. Let's say Florida is close as usual. Then this suggest to me that in this scenario Biden would be overperforming his polling in the Sun Belt, in particular AZ, TX, GA, and NC, and winning those states. So unless there's a big polling error in the NPV and Biden is actually only up by 4, then I still feel good about Biden's chances.

Biden is not up +8.6. Nevada early vote is consistent with a national margin of Biden+5, possibly Biden+4.

Man, how does it feel living in a bubble?

[BudgieForce]

Just putting this out there....

Selzer doesnt weigh by education.

[swf541]

*** I apologize for the sh*t posting tonight everyone.  I don’t think I’m gonna be having much fun in 3 days, so let me have my moment right now.

That's fair. Proceed.

Yep Buzz, your not the one I think most of us are criticizing atm in this thread lol

[swf541]

Just putting this out there....

Selzer doesnt weigh by education.

Wait seriously?

Aight #CancelSelzer

[Gass3268]

Have they always had the "Don't want to tell (Already Voted only)" option in the past? The amount there (5% in the Presidential race and 4% in the Senate race) almost 100% explains the support that both Biden and Greenfield lost from the September poll.

[VAR]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

[Devils30]

They clearly got some junk in IA-1, no way around that

[Lief 🗽]

Holy sht we’re even getting wiped out down ballot
https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1322690550126899203?s=21

[lfromnj]

Go back and read the Atlas thread discussing the final Selzer poll in 2016. People were sticking their heads in the sand then too. This is a really ominous sign.

Yup I even bumped it for all.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251190.75
I don't think this means that Trump wins, although it has enough 2016 vibes to bring my odds of Biden winning to somewhere around 80% for the election.

[NOVA Green]

I feel sick.
It's happening again.

That's it. I'm out of here.

See you all on Tuesday night or Wednesday

What about your Tejas updates.   

Pls don't quit posting because of one fracking poll....

[Tekken_Guy]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

[It’s so Joever]

Guys calm down, it’s one poll.
Even though trump will probably win, Selzer isn’t the reason.

[dspNY]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

No way is IA-1 as red as IA-4. IA-4 is the red district while the other three are swingy or Lean D