Spanish elections and politics

[TheSaint250]

Interesting that the pro-independence majority still would only hold the majority by a few seats.

Also, that ERC poll rise seems to be playing out in the national election, with polls showing it winning over 3% (obviously nationally, and a rise over their last 2.7%)

[Oryxslayer]

Puigdemont's rebellion case is dropped by Spanish Courts.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

[Velasco]

Puigdemont's rebellion case is dropped by Spanish Courts.

To be precise, the Supreme Court judge rejected the extradition of Puigdemont, because it's solely on charges of misuse of funds and not on charges of rebellion. He has withdrawn the European arrest warrant against Puigdemont and other separatist politicians who fled Spain. The ruling of the Schleswig-Holstein court is a rebuttal to the theory of judge Llarena, supporting there was "implicit violence" in the October 1 journey. It casts a shadow over the case of the politicians jailed in Spain on the same charges. According to Spanish law the charge of rebellion implies an attempt to overthrow the government by violent means. I find the interpretation of the Spansih judge rigorous and unfounded and, what is worse, it gives a revenge feeling. It's obvious that the Catalan separatist leaders put themselves outside the law. The judiciary should act, keeping a sense of proportion. Maybe the problem is that the environment in Madrid is too strained, with some people claiming that past events in Catalonia were an attempted coup against Spanish democracy. In my opinion the stubbornness of judge Llarena is quite incomprehensible, as well counterproductive.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/19/inenglish/1532005743_590084.html

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Interesting that the pro-independence majority still would only hold the majority by a few seats.

Also, that ERC poll rise seems to be playing out in the national election, with polls showing it winning over 3% (obviously nationally, and a rise over their last 2.7%)

According to the poll, the balance between pro-independence and 'constitutionalist' parties remains unchanged. There are some transfers within the two blocks, slight increase for ERC and PSC at the expense of JxcAT and Cs respectively. However, there are virtually no vote transfers between blocks. It's worth noting that most of the Cs gains in previous regional elections is at the expense of PSC, especially in Metropolitan Barcelona. Cs also made gains from PP, but the proportion of former PSC voters is higher. In the rest of Spain, Cs is growing mainly at the expense of PP.

[Velasco]

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

I'm in the same opinion. There is no solution in the short term.

[Former President tack50]

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

There isn't one. Cs+JxCat have a majority as of now (70/135 seats). Of course such a coalition is impossible but still.

[Velasco]

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

There isn't one. Cs+JxCat have a majority as of now (70/135 seats). Of course such a coalition is impossible but still.

It's true. Cs+JxCAT+PP add 74 out of 135 seats. The procés has been lethal for the left, in Catalonia and in the rest of Spain. I put all my hopes in the thawing process promoted by Pedro Sánchez. Everything is fragile and provisional right now, but we could see light at the end of the tunnel. As Le Monde correspondent puts it: the problem with this government is that it has ideas, but is lacking a majority to make them real.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's tragic that there's a majority for the left in Catalonia, but they can't enter government together cause of the separatist issue.

There isn't one. Cs+JxCat have a majority as of now (70/135 seats). Of course such a coalition is impossible but still.

I meant in the poll that Velasco just posted, where (by my count) ERC-PSC-CeC-CUP have a majority.

[Former President tack50]

The 19th PP party congress has ended, with the slogan "The future of Spain". And in it, Pablo Casado has won, beating Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pablo-casado-gana-primarias-y-convierte-nuevo-presidente-pp-201807211353_noticia.html



The final results have been:

Casado 1701 (57%)
Soraya 1250 (42%)
Blank 18
Spoilt 4

[Oryxslayer]

Any predictions on what changes with Casado in charge - if it benefits or hurts the PSOE/C's for example?

[TheSaint250]

Any predictions on what changes with Casado in charge - if it benefits or hurts the PSOE/C's for example?

If the one poll from before testing both candidates in the position of PP leader is accurate (even though there were many flaws as previously pointed out), then Casado will continue to push Cs down; I assume this is due to his very liberal economic stances and anti-Catalan-independence sentiment (apparently said today he wants Tabarnia to be a real thing). He probably won’t gain any large amount of PSOE voters (and could lose more moderate PP voters to them), but he is reducing Vox’s poll numbers, which the poll showed would have risen to its highest levels ever with Soraya Saénz de Santamaría.

Also, I might be horribly off with the comparison (posters from Spain: fix my post if necessary ) but I could see him possibly turning into a Sebastian Kurz-type figure: young, more conservative than many past leaders of his party (but relative to Spain, not Austria of course), and responsible for rejuvenating the party in the eyes of those on the center-right to right wing.

[Former President tack50]

Any predictions on what changes with Casado in charge - if it benefits or hurts the PSOE/C's for example?

If the one poll from before testing both candidates in the position of PP leader is accurate (even though there were many flaws as previously pointed out), then Casado will continue to push Cs down; I assume this is due to his very liberal economic stances and anti-Catalan-independence sentiment (apparently said today he wants Tabarnia to be a real thing). He probably won’t gain any large amount of PSOE voters (and could lose more moderate PP voters to them), but he is reducing Vox’s poll numbers, which the poll showed would have risen to its highest levels ever with Soraya Saénz de Santamaría.

Also, I might be horribly off with the comparison (posters from Spain: fix my post if necessary ) but I could see him possibly turning into a Sebastian Kurz-type figure: young, more conservative than many past leaders of his party (but relative to Spain, not Austria of course), and responsible for rejuvenating the party in the eyes of those on the center-right to right wing.

Yup, that's all quite accurate.

Now that Casado is elected, Vox has lost almost all possibilities of getting seats (of course it depends on the 2019 European elections but still it's much more unlikely than a week ago).

Cs will probably go down, most of their new voters went there because of the Catalonia issue. Maybe they'll go back to the center and get moderate PP voters (plus maybe even a few from PSOE) while the hardliners go back to PP but that seems very unlikely to me.

PSOE might go up because of polarization. And UP is probably not affected at all, other than maybe if PSOE goes up UP goes down because "useful voting".

And the Sebastian Kurz comparisons are actually very accurate IMO! The only difference is that while Kurz has to deal with a party to his right (FPÖ), Casado will have to deal with one that is to his left (Cs)

[Velasco]

It's too early to say, but the election of Pablo Casado represents a clear turn to the right for a party that is already perceived as very right-wing. Casado is a social conservative and an "unashamed liberal" (i.e. "neoliberal") on economics. There will be a tight competition between PP and Cs to determine which is the toughest party with separatists.

Casado is standing now for a new electoral system with a  50 seat bonus, like in Greece. He claims that the bonus would allow the winning party to govern without needing the votes of Catalan and Basque nationalists. Previously he proposed the ban of separatist parties.

Also, I might be horribly off with the comparison (posters from Spain: fix my post if necessary ) but I could see him possibly turning into a Sebastian Kurz-type figure: young, more conservative than many past leaders of his party (but relative to Spain, not Austria of course), and responsible for rejuvenating the party in the eyes of those on the center-right to right wing.

Spain is not Austria, obviously. It's possible that there is a slight resemblance between Pablo Casado and Sebastian Kurz, as they share conservative stances and both are in the thirties (Casado is 37, a bit older than millennial Kurz). Unlike Austria and other countries in Europe, there is no obsession with immigration in Spain. The issue that provokes paranoia in public opinion is Catalonia. People in Spain see a strong resemblance between Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera. Casado is young, but no so fresh in my opinion. I mean, he's way too traditionalist for modern Spain and is the heir of Aznar. However, I'm not a right-wing voter and maybe conservatives in Spain think otherwise. The point is that a social conservative like him would be too much for a country that is highly secularized. Casado is tougher than Cs on abortion and euthanasia, which are not on the focus of the orange party. For sure with Casado in the PP leadership the Vox party has limited opportunities to grow.

In other news, this weekend is the convention of the PDeCAT. The fight here is between the supporters of Puigdemont and the 'pragmatic' faction of party coordinator Marta Pascal. The PDeCAT deputies in the Spanish Congress belong to the 'pragmatic' wing and were key in the no confidence vote against Rajoy. Puigdemont is launching a new movement (Crida Nacional per la República) in the fashion of Junts per Catalunya. Marta Pascal wants to reach an agreement with Puigdemont and stands for a "strong party" that joins the new 'republican' movement...

[TheSaint250]

Thank you both

Yeah, it definitely seems like Casado’s brand of conservatism is not Kurz’s, and you’re right that this doesn’t mean a rightward turn for the party whereas it could happen/is happening to the ÖVP.

[Velasco]

this doesn’t mean a rightward turn for the party

The election of Pablo Casado is a rightward turn to the party.  PP delegates were faced to choose between two different options:

1) The continuity of the Rajoy's legacy represented by the former Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, possibly the most powerful woman in Spain since Queen Isabel II ("Isabella" for English Wikipedia). It has been said before: Santamaría is a pragmatist, a technocrat, a woman with no strong ideological stances who has been always focused on power and management. In what regards pragmatism she could be cautiously compared with Angela Merkel, although both women have very different backgrounds. Anyway she's not a centrist, rather she is a "stately" candidate or a "stateswoman" if you want (state attorney by profession). While campaigning Santamaría used to talk as she was still into government affairs.

2) The "conservative revolution" of Pablo Casado, a candidate to the right of old-fashioned provincian conservative Rajoy. Casado is a young man who wants to renew the party but, at the same time, he represents the comeback of old party leaders like José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre, or more precisely the triumph of their vision, I already posted about some of his stances and proposals.

Media narrative: the leadership contest was the Heiress of Rajoy Vs the Heir of Aznar.

[EPG]

Is it possible that alliance with Cs will turn out to be Macron's first big, bad bet in European politics? Some say the same is true about the Franco-German pact, excluding smaller countries who are now grouping together (an argument favoured by Eurointelligence, who regularly read this site, I believe). Either way the augurs seem good for PSOE, which by my jaundiced view is good for everyone except some right-wing Spanish people.

[Velasco]

The election of Pablo Casado and the foreseeable competition between him and Albert Rivera on the grounds of right-wing Spanish nationalism might be good for the PSOE, because it places Pedro Sánchez in the centre. In case that the new leader of the Spanish Right launches a war on ideas, It could be good for Podemos that political battles are fought on ideological grounds. Maybe Casado will make moves in the following days indicative of the path he wants to choose, either the strong ideological stance in the border with Vox or a certain discursive modulation. Also, what is going to hapoen with Santamaria and her supporters. She wants to negotiate a place un party leadership, apparently.

Marta Pascal seems to be losing to Puigdemont in rhe PDeCAT convention. She resigned As coordinator for not having the confidence of the leader that is in Germany. Puigdemont could take full control.

[Former President tack50]

Something that I find interesting is that even though Casado is the supposed heir of Aznar as the more conservative candidate, back on the day Aznar himself was the moderate, bringing PP to the centre and making it competitive with González's PSOE after Fraga's AP was considered too conservative and too close to the Franco regime.

[Velasco]

David Bonvehí elected new chairman of the PDeCAT (formerly CDC). Deputy Miriam Nogueras is the new vice-chairman; presumably she will take control of the PDeCAT caucus in the Spanish Congress. As said before, former coordinator Marta Pascal resigned alleging that she's not trusted by Puigdemont anymore. This resignation and the low profile of the party leadership signal the defeat of the 'possibilist' faction that wanted to keep the party's identity. Puigdemont, who is the uncontested leader and the main electoral asset of the PDeCAT, takes control. Also, with this move the PDeCAT subordinates completely to Puigdemont and his new artifact, the Crida Nacional per la República ("National Call for the Republic"). As opposed to the 'possibilists' wanting to leave the unilateral path to independence and start a dialogue with the central government*, Puigdemont and his supporters are committed to maintain the tension. The Crida is an electoral vehicle that intends to be the equivalent of En Marche! (Macron obsession is everywhere) in the Catalan independence movement, with the aim of winning hegemony at the expense of ERC. The party led by Oriol Junqueras, who remains in jail, is more committed to possibilism since the failure of the unilateral declaration of independence in October 2017. Previously ERC pushed Puigdemont to declare the "Catalan Republic", so this turn displeased the deposed premier and worsened the acrimonious rivalry between the two nationalist parties.


*Marta Pascal and the parliamentary caucus pushed in favour of the no confidence motion against Rajoy, while Puigdemont and his supporters ('vicarious' premier Quim Torra and Elsa Artadi, among others) were in favour of abstention.

So we have that, in the same weekend, radicals have won in the PP and the PDeCAT conventions. Pedro Sánchez could find himself trapped by a nationalist front formed by PP-Cs on the one hand and Puigdemont on the other hand.

Something that I find interesting is that even though Casado is the supposed heir of Aznar as the more conservative candidate, back on the day Aznar himself was the moderate, bringing PP to the centre and making it competitive with González's PSOE after Fraga's AP was considered too conservative and too close to the Franco regime.

It's obvious that the alleged centrism or moderatism of José María Aznar was fake and cosmetic. On the other hand, the connection of Manuel Fraga with the Franco regime was so evident that a generational replacement was necessary, in order that the refurbished PP (the party was refounded by then) could break the famous 'glass ceiling' of the Spanish Right.

[TheSaint250]

Sorry, I misread and thought you said it was NOT a rightward turn. My mistake.

[Former President tack50]

This is sort of unrelated, but I guess I'll post it here.

It's a map of control of the different provincial governments (diputaciones) and equivalents in the rest of Spain I made a while ago for Reddit.



This map is actually mixing several stuff, so here's the explanation I made for the map:

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Some of the more interesting stuff is seeing MES controlling almost everything in the Balearic Islands even though the regional government is led by PSOE, PAR managing to hold on in Teruel somehow (they actually came in third, but they are being propped up by PP and PSOE, who came first and second) and of course PSOE provincial governments in Soria and Pontevedra of all places, who have never voted PSOE in any election.

[seb_pard]

I read somewhere that the diputaciones forales in Euskadi and Navarra are the entities responsible of tax issues (they decide the taxes, collect them and I don't know about spending), so they are really powerful (more than the regional governments).

[Former President tack50]

I read somewhere that the diputaciones forales in Euskadi and Navarra are the entities responsible of tax issues (they decide the taxes, collect them and I don't know about spending), so they are really powerful (more than the regional governments).

Yup, the diputaciones forales are technically the ones in charge of handling the money from the concierto económico.  However I'd still say the Basque regional government is a lot more powerful than the diputaciones forales.

Though of course the diputaciones forales are still a lot more powerful than the standard diputaciones and also than the Cabildos/Concells.

[Velasco]

CIS July 2018. Fieldwork July 1 to 10, 1 month after Pedro Sánchez becomes the new PM and more than 10 days before Pablo Casado becomes the new PP leader.

It's not surprising that PSOE is going up after the no confidence motion while Podemos drops. Obviously there's a vote transfer between the two parties in the left, but I don't think the PSOE can grow much more at the expense pf Podemos. The combined Cs-PP percentage is low, while the "others" percentage is a bit high if compared with other polls. I can't draw conclusions right  now. For sure some experts in media will dissect the poll insides.  

Immigration concern is three times higher than the previous month (11.1% in July to 3.5% in June), in coincidence with summer arrivals in Andalusia. In contrast concern on Catalonia is lower (6.3% to 7.1%). As usual, corruption and fraud (38.5%) and unemployment (64.3%) are the main concerns.

[windjammer]

Could there be a PSOE-Podemo government?