🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Хahar 🤔]

Actually, there is one thing to say: no change for the SPD from 2017 is a bit surprising but I suppose it makes sense for the swing, if it's happening, to be most pronounced in the north and east and least pronounced in the south.

If these numbers hold, the Greens would be ahead of the SPD in Bavaria and (I imagine) in BW and I'm not sure if they would be anywhere else. Surely that would produce some good analysis on the inherent differences between the High German and the Low German.

Free voters will get seats in the Bundestag with breaking 5% there or is it 5% on the federal level.

The threshold is calculated at the federal level.

[Хahar 🤔]

INSA is doing a ton of polls, there's another one from today showing little move. We need more to see the effects of recent events and the debate. If the numbers roughly remain unchanged over the course of this week, Laschet is in severe trouble. I mean, he already is, but time is running out now.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437421172535267340

Note that the survey period could be characterized as the worst time for Scholz so far. That the SPD's numbers remained unchanged is a great relief for the SPD, even if we are talking about just one poll. Time is running out for Laschet. It's only 13 days until the election, and people are already voting.

Is there any chance of FW entering or another party by passing threesold or winning a direct seat?

The South Schleswig Voters' Federation (SSW), minority party of Danes and Frisians, is exempted from the threshold and will likely just need about 50.000 votes to enter Parliament. Not guaranteed, but quite possible.

Beyond that? Meh. The only question will be which parties can cross the 0.5 % mark to receive federal campaign fundings.

Is it that the Danish and Frisian minority communities in Germany are constitutionally allowed to "endorse" a party to represent them,* and then that party is exempt from the threshold? Or rather, is it that the SSW, the party itself, is recognized in the Constitution as being by definition the party for Frisians and Danes--and thus exempted?

Sorry if it seems like splitting hairs! But I'm curious


*Perhaps through their ethnic organizations or whatever

The electoral commission makes the decision to recognize a particular party as representative of a national minority (although they are limited to the four officially recognized minorities: Sorbs, Danes, Frisians, and Roma). Prior to this election, the electoral commission officially recognized the SSW as the party of Danes and Frisians in Schleswig-Holstein. It appears that this was a determination of the electoral commission itself rather than of any representative organizations (although presumably the opinions of such organizations could be considered). No other party was recognized as a minority party.

I don't speak German and I've gleaned all of this through Google Translate, but a brief explanation is here: https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/info/presse/mitteilungen/bundestagswahl-2021/16_21_parteien-nationaler-minderheiten.html

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't really wish the AfD to overperform anywhere, but if they do, may it be Baden-Württenberg. The statewide AfD list has 12 nominees only, which means that any seat the party would get above that number would remain empty. Glad they're actively working to reduce the size of the Bundestag.

On this note, will the failure of the Greens to submit a valid list in the Saarland have any effect at all?

[Хahar 🤔]

Others will be able to make a more definite statement than I can, but I find it hard to imagine that (barring a truly unworkable Bundestag) German political culture would permit an extended delay in government formation like what we see regularly in Belgium or the Netherlands.

[Хahar 🤔]

Others will be able to make a more definite statement than I can, but I find it hard to imagine that (barring a truly unworkable Bundestag) German political culture would permit an extended delay in government formation like what we see regularly in Belgium or the Netherlands.

Wasn't there a 6-month delay just 4 years ago?

I'll be totally honest, I forgot it's 2021 and not 2020 so I misinterpreted what dragging into 2022 meant.

[Хahar 🤔]

Die Linke definitely has its place in the political spectrum, but they should get rid of the Maduro apologists on their left fringe. Maybe it would help if they dropped out of parliament. There are reasonable people in the reformist wing of the party.

Something I've noticed is that a lot of polls have had Die Linke near the threshold, but I haven't seen any that have had them at or below the threshold. Is there any real sense that they're in danger of missing out? I'm guessing that they're not going to win enough direct seats for the threshold not to matter.

[Хahar 🤔]

Back home from our party now, and it feels awesome to be a member of the strongest political force in Germany.

Everything depends now on FDP and Greens, and I predict it won't be that easy since both of thrm have difference preferences between SPD and CDU. Interestingly, I spoke with a bunch of Greens since they had their election night party in the same restaurant, and all of them wanted to enter a trafficlight coalition and not Jamaica.

Did you speak to any FDP members or was thier party at a venue to expensive for you to enter ?

Asking you to be better at posting is certainly a lost cause, but have you ever considered being a better person?

[Хahar 🤔]

Full sized image can be accessed via the Magick of 'right-click'.

I believe this kind of sorcery is forbidden in Missouri.