Who will be the first Republican to announce their candidacy for President?

[ScottM]

Alan Keyes

Keyes has sworn off the Republican party, thrown a fit when he didn't get the Constitution Party nomination, and formed his own party. While he probably runs again, it will be under his own party's nomination.

I voted Pawlenty. After the midterms are over, he'll have no reason to wait. I wouldn't be surprised if he announces relatively early in 2011.

[Mr. Morden]

I voted Pawlenty. After the midterms are over, he'll have no reason to wait. I wouldn't be surprised if he announces relatively early in 2011.

I'm guessing he'll wait until January, when he formally leaves office as guv.  But that certainly won't make him the first to announce, as several other candidates will be announcing in November and December, immediately after the midterms.

[exopolitician]

Some small town quack, and radical member of the Tea Party movement. Sarah Palin

and then I'll laugh. Hysterically.

[Guderian]

Palin.....if she does run, I suspect she'll want to delay the messy work of campaigning, debating, etc. as long as possible.  She doesn't really play by the same media rules as the others.  She doesn't have to worry about the media losing interest in her if she teases them too long.

You could have a point but I must point out that Wesley Clark and Fred Thompson were hurt by their late entries in the last two presidential cycles. Of course, Palin is a bigger media sensation than either of them, but I still don't like the chances of candidates who tease too much. That way you have to start from behind from organizational standpoint, you piss off the media and you piss off the Iowa and New Hampshire voters that love to be cuddled from one Election Day to another.

My answer to the question, Rick Santorum.

[Beet]

I think if Gingrich is serios this time...same with Palin...it will be the end of spring.

Gingrich you may be right on.  Palin.....if she does run, I suspect she'll want to delay the messy work of campaigning, debating, etc. as long as possible.  She doesn't really play by the same media rules as the others.  She doesn't have to worry about the media losing interest in her if she teases them too long.

What are the media rules?

It seems that the "media rules" are busy being reinvented-- along with the media itself.

[Guderian]

One campaign latecomer I can think of who won the nomination and later the presidency in recent times is Bill Clinton. Of course, he was tremendously helped by the fact that his primary opponents were a political version of the '62 Mets.

[Jensen]

Someone who isn't very well-known and needs the extra publicity.

[ScottM]

Palin.....if she does run, I suspect she'll want to delay the messy work of campaigning, debating, etc. as long as possible.  She doesn't really play by the same media rules as the others.  She doesn't have to worry about the media losing interest in her if she teases them too long.

You could have a point but I must point out that Wesley Clark and Fred Thompson were hurt by their late entries in the last two presidential cycles. Of course, Palin is a bigger media sensation than either of them, but I still don't like the chances of candidates who tease too much. That way you have to start from behind from organizational standpoint, you piss off the media and you piss off the Iowa and New Hampshire voters that love to be cuddled from one Election Day to another.

My answer to the question, Rick Santorum.

I think what hurt Thompson much more than his late entry was his seemingly half-hearted campaign. He didn't seem to have any fire until just before he dropped out.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin.....if she does run, I suspect she'll want to delay the messy work of campaigning, debating, etc. as long as possible.  She doesn't really play by the same media rules as the others.  She doesn't have to worry about the media losing interest in her if she teases them too long.

You could have a point but I must point out that Wesley Clark and Fred Thompson were hurt by their late entries in the last two presidential cycles. Of course, Palin is a bigger media sensation than either of them, but I still don't like the chances of candidates who tease too much. That way you have to start from behind from organizational standpoint, you piss off the media and you piss off the Iowa and New Hampshire voters that love to be cuddled from one Election Day to another.

I agree, it could very likely kill her chances, but she'll still do it, as she has an extremely inept political operation.  I just see Palin as someone in the vein of Thompson, who doesn't really want to be bothered with the hard work of a real campaign.  She also wouldn't want to be bothered with monthly debates (which she would be expected to participate in once she becomes a candidate), so she'll put that off as long as possible.  If she runs at all, I just think that her thinking would be "The normal rules don't apply to me.  I can get in the race whenever I want."

That doesn't mean that she'd be *right* to think that.   But that's what I'd guess she'd do.

[Rudy]

It will be a little known Republican Congressman, who uses his reelection victory speech in November to announce his intentions on running.

[Senator Robert A. Taft]

Likely some totally irrelevant member of Congress, like Hunter and Tancredo in '08.

[milhouse24]

It should be Mitt, cuz he's got nothing else better to do at this moment.  and raising all that money worked out so well for him last time, he can build an insurmountable lead. 

What does anyone think about Frist, he seemed to have a promising career?  Tax troubles?