2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Gustaf]

The Emerson polls are just statewide polls broken down by district right? If that's the case I'd be very, very skeptical of them.

[Gustaf]

I love having all these homophobes and homophobia apologists on ignore. Really stresses me out on a personal level to see people denying my humanity and part of my identity but, hey, they chose the GOP for a reason

Well, people are entitled (and will stick) to their opinion, even if Supreme Court decided otherwise. I support LGBT rights, but, for example, in my country 95% of people think otherwise. Ignore all? You will not be able simply live in country in that case.

You live in a Neo-Fascist Dictatorship where the elites under the Oligarchy, especially since the rise of Putin, have systematically used extremely sophisticated tactics to steer social discontent into "hatred of the others", where the organs of the State, Church, and Media reinforce Homophobic narratives domestically, as well as Wars of Aggression targeting ethnic and religious minority populations not only domestically, but additionally within the former states of the USSR, and even beyond.

Obviously you are not personally responsible for these actions, and seem like a decent and reasonable individual, but it is difficult to compare these types of discussions within a Democratic Society versus a totalitarian one-party state (despite the rhetoric to the contrary), especially in light of the role of the Counter-Revolutionaries that attempted to destroy the original goals of the Gorbachev era....

At least in the United States, Civil Society has changed the narrative when it comes to LGBT issues, despite the attempts of the reactionaries to advance forward progress....

Where is Civil Society in modern day Russia, where journalists and business leaders are murdered in the streets of the Country, and even abroad and former states of the USSR that can stand against the repressive apparatus of the State?

Oh dear, now you're going to set Smoltchanov off on Another one of his angry rants. He's very sensitive and can't handle criticism without becoming hysterical.

[Gustaf]

This seems to be Another Point in favour of fundamentals v candidate quality, because I recall people were saying Lewis would have a harder time than Paulsen because of quality.

[Gustaf]

Most Republicans Believe the US would be better off if there were no universities so it's hardly surprising. People who vote for joke parties are bound to hold a lot of joke opinions.

[Gustaf]

Note in particular that having a second decimal Place in a poll with less than 1 000 people is...odd.

For instance, Halleran's vote share of the number of respondends is 267.3774 individuals. Had it been 267 or 268 his vote share would be different. So this must have been weighted in what I presume was some pretty fishy way.

[Gustaf]

Just watching Morning Joe and Joe says that he doesn't beleive that's possible that Ds get house majority big seat gain and senate goes to Rs pickups, because people tend to vote down the ballot the same way. But it's actually highly possible because you have deep red states in senate and on the other hand you have a bunch of pickup opportunities in house in states that are trending blue like VA. Also, IL,CA,NJ all blue states or purple like NC

Yeah, that's super dumb since the races don't overlap almost at all. Democrats could tsunami house seats across California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York without it gaining them anything in the senate and conversely Republicans could outperform in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana to comfortably hold the senate without it doing almost anything for them to hold the House.

[Gustaf]

Also, since I haven't been paying attention, what happened to Walters? Wasn't hers supposed to be one of the hardest to gain GOP seats in California?

[Gustaf]

The shift among educated and non-educated white voters I suspect change these patterns a bit.

It's clear that low turnout doesn't really hurt Democrats this time around because of their higher enthusiasm and the shift of educated whites. If higher turnout is driven by disenchanted Republicans and no-college whites it'll benefit Republicans, while if it's driven by young people and POC it will benefit Democrats. It's not super clear to me which one of these is more likely to have happened given a high turnout scenario.

[Gustaf]

Guys, stop feeding the troll. He literally said "this implies the Democrats winning the GCB by a lot so it can't be true" and then flipped immediately to "this implies the Democrats aren't winning the GCB by enough to take the House".

Even LimoLiberal has a more convincing act.