2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Florida Man for Crime]

I believe Siena is only fulfilling the call center function (as are some other call centers), and the question design, etc., is coming from NYT/Upshot.  See the tweet below.  If this is the case, all the arguments about Siena's supposed incumbent bias are not relevant to these polls.

Yes, that too. Cohn also confirmed a week or so ago on twitter that although the methodology and weightings are similar to what Siena has used in its own polls, it is not the same methodology (something which should have been obvious from reading the methodology description articles on the NYT site).

[Zaybay]

Is there historical evidence to back up the idea that Siena is biased toward incumbents in September? It's certainly not the case that all of their polls are rosy for incumbents.

Yes actually.

https://scri.siena.edu/category/political/page/25/

This is the section that has most of the 2010 polls. As you can see, some of these results gathered before October are rather crazy:
-the 24th had the R, Richard Hanna, down by 8, 48-40. A poll released in the last week had a more modest win for Democratic incumbent, Mike Arcuri, of 48-43. The R won 52-48.

-In the 20th, Chris Gibbson won 55-45, Siena gave the incumbent D, Scott Murphy the lead, by 17 points no less

-One of the worst offenders, Siena gave, in October, the incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei a large lead in the 25th district, 51-39. The republican challenger, Ann Marie Buerkle, won by .5%

(Siena did NY polls most of the time)

2014 is similar
-Tim Bishop, the incumbent, was given a 51-41 lead against challenger Lee Zeldin, halfway through September. Siena later corrected this in the last week of the election, giving Zeldin a 5% lead. He won  53-44.

-A similar story, Siena gave incumbent Dan Maffei a lead, 50-42, in NY-24. Katko got a more favorable poll, 52-42, in the last week of the election, and won 58-38.

Even in 2018, there has been a similar trend, with its NY polls having a much more Republican sample, and finding much higher approvals than, say Monmouth, or other pollsters have found. There is definitely an incumbency bias in Siena.

Edit: this took a while to get, so I apologize for not getting it sooner

So just eyeballing this quickly, you have a sample size of 5 polls you are working with here, and only over 2 elections. That is not a large amount of data from which to draw valid conclusions.

And for this analysis you seem to be selecting polls that had large differences between the poll and the results, but ignoring other polls.

In addition, all of the polls you mention were in New York. An alternate explanation (or partial explanation) for sharp divergences/swings could be that New York is simply very swingy and elastic, particularly upstate. This would definitely be consistent with actual election results, where there have been very sharp differences in results between different years and in different races. Democrats have often carried upstate NY counties in landslides (especially incumbent dems in statewide races), but on the other hand they have also voted in landslides for Republicans (Trump being a recent case in point, but also earlier Republicans have done so). In fact, if you had to pick out a single region of the United States as the most swingy/elastic, upstate NY would be a prime contender.

And even if your analysis is correct, in order for it to say anything particular about Siena, you need to compare it to other pollsters to show that it is actually a Siena-specific effect.

I just didnt want to write literally every race they polled out, and the reason they are mostly NY centric is because Siena usually does NY only.

Anyway, you ask me to show Siena being the one off, I shall provide.

2010

NY-20 Siena corrected, as stated before, but other pollsters Public Opinion Strategies found a closer result(42-38D)

NY-24 McLaughlin and Associates also did the race, and found 46-43 R

NY-25 McLaughlin and Associates also did the race, and found 40-39 R

2014

NY-01 Haper polling and Public Opinion Strategies found a tied race at the same time

NY-24 Public Opinion found a closer race at the same time, 46-43 D


I linked all of Siena's polls that they have done, so if you would like to look into it yourself, you may. I dont really have the time to do anymore races, TBH, college and all.

Edit: Im not arguing that the NYT polls have an incumbency bias, just Siena itself. The NYT polls just seem to have a problem getting the right respondents.

[Devout Centrist]

Is there historical evidence to back up the idea that Siena is biased toward incumbents in September? It's certainly not the case that all of their polls are rosy for incumbents.

It's just a lie #BlueWavers tell themselves to feel better about those brutal numbers they've been seeing lately.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/ny/new_york_24th_district_hanna_vs_arcuri-1280.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/ny/new_york_1st_district_altschuler_vs_bishop-1167.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/ny/new_york_23rd_district_doheny_vs_owens-1279.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/ny/new_york_20th_district_gibson_vs_murphy-1297.html

Look kid, I know you’re a troll, but stick to the Wisconsin thread

[ProgressiveCanadian]

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article218705250.html

NC-13 DCCC (D internal): Manning (D) 46, Budd (R-inc) 42

District voted for Trump by 9 points!

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1042875516976476160

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1042875516976476160

A tie in a R internal isn’t great for Rosendale

[BundouYMB]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1042875516976476160

A tie in a R internal isn’t great for Rosendale

Not great? It's abysmal.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

MN-3 PPP: Phillips 52, Paulsen 39

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/09/two-major-political-handicappers-find-minnesotas-third-district-slipping-out-of-erik-paulsens-grasp/

[OneJ]

MN-3 PPP: Phillips 52, Paulsen 39

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/09/two-major-political-handicappers-find-minnesotas-third-district-slipping-out-of-erik-paulsens-grasp/

 

[Hindsight was 2020]

MN-3 PPP: Phillips 52, Paulsen 39

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/09/two-major-political-handicappers-find-minnesotas-third-district-slipping-out-of-erik-paulsens-grasp/

Woof

[DaWN]

MN-3 PPP: Phillips 52, Paulsen 39

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/09/two-major-political-handicappers-find-minnesotas-third-district-slipping-out-of-erik-paulsens-grasp/

Press f to pay respects

[Politician]

MN-3 PPP: Phillips 52, Paulsen 39

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/09/two-major-political-handicappers-find-minnesotas-third-district-slipping-out-of-erik-paulsens-grasp/

[Florida Man for Crime]

If I were Phillips, I would start plans to cancel some of my TV ad reservations to start building up my warchest for my re-election bid. Makes things easier to start the next cycle with a nice pile of cash on hand.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If I were Phillips, I would start plans to cancel some of my TV ad reservations to start building up my warchest for my re-election bid. Makes things easier to start the next cycle with a nice pile of cash on hand.

Barring some highly unforseen circumstance, he aint losing in 2020 of he is the incumbent. Btw, I’m moving this race from Tilt D—-> Strong Lean D.

[Tartarus Sauce]

MN-3 PPP: Phillips 52, Paulsen 39

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/09/two-major-political-handicappers-find-minnesotas-third-district-slipping-out-of-erik-paulsens-grasp/

Not surprising, Paulsen was one of the most overrated incumbents that should have been recognized as up sh*t's creek without a paddle long before it took many to register that fact. I still remember earlier in the year how a lot of people would put him on their list of Republican incumbents most likely to defy the wave.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If I were Phillips, I would start plans to cancel some of my TV ad reservations to start building up my warchest for my re-election bid. Makes things easier to start the next cycle with a nice pile of cash on hand.

Barring some highly unforseen circumstance, he aint losing in 2020 of he is the incumbent. Btw, I’m moving this race from Tilt D—-> Strong Lean D.

If it leaned any farther, it would fall over.

[Nyvin]

On Sabato there's now more R-held lean/likely/safe D seats than there are D-held seats on the list altogether.

[MT Treasurer]

MN-3 PPP: Phillips 52, Paulsen 39

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/09/two-major-political-handicappers-find-minnesotas-third-district-slipping-out-of-erik-paulsens-grasp/

Not surprising, Paulsen was one of the most overrated incumbents that should have been recognized as up sh*t's creek without a paddle long before it took many to register that fact. I still remember earlier in the year how a lot of people would put him on their list of Republican incumbents most likely to defy the wave.

Yeah, Paulsen, Comstock and Coffman are pretty much the most overrated Republican incumbents this year.

[ON Progressive]

Since I haven't seen this one posted yet

NY-01 (Global Strategy Group on behalf of Taking Action Suffolk County (D SuperPAC):

Lee Zeldin (R-inc) 47
Perry Gershon (D) 44

https://www.newsday.com/opinion/lights-out-1.21175049

[junior chįmp]

PPP poll: MN-02 - Craig (D) 48% Lewis (R-inc) 45%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP poll: MN-02 - Craig (D) 48% Lewis (R-inc) 45%

Why does Craig have a -9 favorable rating?

[Brittain33]

PPP poll: MN-02 - Craig (D) 48% Lewis (R-inc) 45%

Why does Craig have a -9 favorable rating?

After effect of the 2016 loss?

[Gustaf]

This seems to be Another Point in favour of fundamentals v candidate quality, because I recall people were saying Lewis would have a harder time than Paulsen because of quality.

[ajc0918]

Some Florida polls from PPP, commissioned by Save Our Care:

FL-18:
Brian Mast (R) - 46
Lauren Baer (D) - 43
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275350-baer-within-three-mast

FL-25:
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 41
Mary Barzee Flores  (D) - 36
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275349-poll-barzee-flores-closing

FL-26:
Carlos Curbelo (R) - 45
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - 46
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275351-curbelo-trailing-newest-poll

[wesmoorenerd]

Some Florida polls from PPP, commissioned by Save Our Care:

FL-18:
Brian Mast (R) - 46
Lauren Baer (D) - 43
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275350-baer-within-three-mast

FL-25:
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 41
Mary Barzee Flores  (D) - 36
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275349-poll-barzee-flores-closing

FL-26:
Carlos Curbelo (R) - 45
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - 46
http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275351-curbelo-trailing-newest-poll

Exceptional numbers all around, especially from FL-26. I was under the impression that most internals were showing Curbelo ahead. Either this is an outlier or the race has really moved quite a bit.

18 and 25 are great too, I wouldn't have expected us to be so close to Mast and the fact that Diaz-Balart is only at 41 is surprising and a good sign.