2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130624 times)
Xing
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« Reply #100 on: September 17, 2018, 09:34:51 PM »

I suppose that's one thing we really have to consider for ME-02. Getting 47-48% isn't going to cut it for Poliquin even if he ends up slightly ahead in the first count. Usually, when one candidate has to clear 50%, that helps Republicans, but it's probably going to help Golden here.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #101 on: September 17, 2018, 10:41:57 PM »

Internal with zero undecideds? Sorry but throw it in the trash.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #102 on: September 17, 2018, 11:20:54 PM »


Curbelo looking like he very well could lose.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #103 on: September 17, 2018, 11:25:28 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 17, 2018, 10:41:57 PM

Internal with zero undecideds? Sorry but throw it in the trash.

It's the final round of the IRV, so voters must basically pick 1 of the top 2.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #104 on: September 17, 2018, 11:42:14 PM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on September 17, 2018, 11:25:28 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 17, 2018, 10:41:57 PM

Internal with zero undecideds? Sorry but throw it in the trash.

It's the final round of the IRV, so voters must basically pick 1 of the top 2.

That doesn't mean pollsters should push undecideds THAT much.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #105 on: September 17, 2018, 11:48:08 PM »
I don't necessarily see the problem, seems to work quite well for pollsters in Australia.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #106 on: September 18, 2018, 05:57:57 AM »
The Emerson polls are just statewide polls broken down by district right? If that's the case I'd be very, very skeptical of them.

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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #107 on: September 18, 2018, 06:32:57 AM »
Arguably the worst House poll for Dems so far:
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Brittain33
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« Reply #108 on: September 18, 2018, 06:37:39 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on September 18, 2018, 06:32:57 AM
Arguably the worst House poll for Dems so far:



Matches Democratic underperformance in this district in the primaries, too. I wonder if we’re seeing Asian-American voters being highly anti-Trump but supporting the Korean-American candidate.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #109 on: September 18, 2018, 06:39:13 AM »
The CA-39 poll also has Trump at 47% approval despite him only getting 43% of the vote in 2016, so... yeah. I find it hard to believe Cisneros is already underwater in a Clinton +8 district.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #110 on: September 18, 2018, 07:09:02 AM »
I’ve always said that CA-39 will be the most difficult Orange County district for Democrats. Young Kim is the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #111 on: September 18, 2018, 07:09:52 AM »
VA-2 Garin-Hart-Yang: Luria (D) 51 (!!!), Taylor (R-inc) 43

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/embargoed-until-tuesday-5am-democratic-poll-shows-elaine-luria-overtaking-rep-scott-taylor-after-ballot-forgery-scandal
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #112 on: September 18, 2018, 07:33:42 AM »

Nice.
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OneJ
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« Reply #113 on: September 18, 2018, 07:35:12 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #114 on: September 18, 2018, 07:35:31 AM »

Was not expecting this. Figured Taylor would be down a few. Did Northam win Taylor's district last year?
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Jeppe
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« Reply #115 on: September 18, 2018, 07:37:06 AM »

Yes he did, low-mid single digits, I believe.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #116 on: September 18, 2018, 07:37:32 AM »

Yes, although Northam himself hails from the district and hence had extra enthusiasm.
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Politician
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« Reply #117 on: September 18, 2018, 07:44:59 AM »
It looks like Taylor is the newest member of the Comstock/Rothfus/Blum/Lewis/Paulsen/Coffman/Young/Rohrabacher/Knight club.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #118 on: September 18, 2018, 07:45:19 AM »
GHY always has somewhat exuberant results for its Democratic clients, no?
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Jeppe
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« Reply #119 on: September 18, 2018, 07:48:45 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on September 18, 2018, 07:45:19 AM
GHY always has somewhat exuberant results for its Democratic clients, no?

You might be thinking of Tulchin, which had Cisneros +11 against Monmouth’s Kim+10.

All I remember from GHY is that they nailed the KY-06 primary, when it looked like Gray was easily going to win.
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bilaps
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« Reply #120 on: September 18, 2018, 08:00:16 AM »
I just want to see what zaybay has to say about this gold-standard poll from CA-39
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KingSweden
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« Reply #121 on: September 18, 2018, 08:02:38 AM »
I think it’s fair to say Young Kim was House GOP’s Best recruit this cycle, no?
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #122 on: September 18, 2018, 08:15:36 AM »
CA-39 is such an interesting district demographic wise. Basicly 1/3 white, 1/3 asian, 1/3 Hispanic.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #123 on: September 18, 2018, 08:16:32 AM »
I can’t buy Trump being at 47/47 in CA-39 at all.
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Devils30
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« Reply #124 on: September 18, 2018, 08:21:52 AM »
47/47 approval in a 51-43 Clinton district  and sample size of 402. Seems to be running into the same problem Nate Cohn has with response rates.
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