PA - ABC/WaPo: Biden +7

[Wiz in Wis]

“High Quality” PA pollsters in 2016

YouGov: Clinton +8
NYT/Siena: Clinton +7
Quinnipiac: Clinton +6 (at 50)
F&M: Clinton +11 (at 49)
CNN: Clinton +5 (over 50)


“Low Quality” PA pollsters in 2016:
Trafalgar: Trump +1
Susquehanna: Clinton +2
Harper: Tie
Gravis: Clinton +2


Tuesday should be fascinating!

Your figures are inaccurate for some of the "high quality polls". From the link below, these are the last polls of PA as logged by 538:

YouGov: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4
Quinnipiac: Clinton 48, Trump 43, Johnson 2
CNN: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

Republicans are serial liars who would sell their own mother, who would've thought?

Not lying.  Those are the H2H matchups per RCP

Then as others have mentioned your sourcing is wrong

No.  H2H those were the poll #’s

Why would you be comparing H2H with just 2 options to the current polls which are including Jorgensen/Hawkins... that's apples to oranges.

[Gren]

Good. I've read on Twitter that there will be 4 Biden rallies around Philly in the remaining days. Hope that helps with turnout, particularly AA turnout.

[emailking]

Seriously, you can find the polls on this website. Hillary did not break 50% in any poll since the Oct 03 Monmouth Poll.

Yeah and now it's November and we have a Biden over 50.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Where are all the Trump supporters to spend 17 pages freaking out about their candidate being down by 7 points in the most critical state on the map?

Anyone?

No, we only freak out when a candidate is down 7 points in a 6EV non-swing state that his party lost by 10 points in 2016.

That is explained more by the fact that there are not many Trump supporters around, at least not rational ones.

[philly09]

Trump gets 44 in this poll and 43 in the NYT/Siena poll. I guess undecideds are breaking for Biden, as he's two points ahead of the Siena poll.

[Democratic Hawk]

Seven Pennsylvania counties will wait until after Election Day to process mail-in ballots

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/seven-pennsylvania-counties-will-wait-until-after-election-day-process-n1245614

Counties: Beaver, Cumberland, Franklin, Greene, Juniata, Mercer and Mountour

Trump carried all 7 in 2016

Aggregate Vote: Trump 222 ,965; Clinton 124,974

Trump margin: 97, 991

Could Biden cut that margin?

[philly09]

Seven Pennsylvania counties will wait until after Election Day to process mail-in ballots

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/seven-pennsylvania-counties-will-wait-until-after-election-day-process-n1245614

Counties: Beaver, Cumberland, Franklin, Greene, Juniata, Mercer and Mountour

Trump carried all 7 in 2016

Aggregate Vote: Trump 222 ,965; Clinton 124,974

Trump margin: 97, 991

Could Biden cut that margin?

Probably, but Erie County is key.