New Tradesports rankings

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I did some re-evaluating of my Intrade account a few days ago.

I'm out of Huckabee all together now.  I should have gotten totally out a bit sooner, but I was playing with "free" money anyway—I more than made back what I paid for it by selling in the high teens.  Sold my last piece of the Huck at 4.3, which is still more than I paid post-Ames.

My current positions:
5 long on Clinton to win the nomination (bought at 55.8, now 66.0).
25 long on Richardson to win the nomination (a longshot bet bought at 2.8, now 0.1).
10 long on McCain to win the Presidency (bought at 18.8, now 19.1).
10 long on Sununu to win his race (bought at 33.4, now 41.0).
3 long on Clinton to win South Carolina (bought at 25.0, now 14.3).
7 short on Giuliani to win New Jersey (shorted at 50.0, now 40.0).
17 short on Giuliani to win Pennsylvania (shorted at 68.0, now 25.0).
About $7 in cash reserve.

That puts me up about 67% or so since the November 2006 elections (84% lifetime).  I should do this for a mutual fund or something.

[© tweed]

get out of Sununu now that you're up....  it's not worth the fight...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

get out of Sununu now that you're up....  it's not worth the fight...

It's not a hold until expiration type contract like Clinton to win the nomination or Giuliani to lose Pennsylvania is.  It's a short-term contract that I've made most of my profits thus far on.  I don't like risking that much money on a coinflip.

If only it was that easy.  Liquidity is low on such contracts.  I'd have to take a loss to sell now, despite currently being up by a buck per contract.  I've got an order to sell in at 52.  If I wait long enough, it'll likely sell at that price.

I bought 25 or so at 33.3 and sold at 50+ when the last poll had Sununu up over Shaheen.  And if there was more for sale now at 33.3, I'd buy it in a heartbeast.

According to Intrade, I have made $73.35 of profit so far by trading in the New Hampshire Senate race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As far as FL is concerned Bush needed McCain in 2004 to help him win FL against John Kerry no big surprise in the polls. And until the last week, CA had all but decided to vote for McCain until the comment about Jerry Falwell got McCain into trouble. Independents vote in CA so McCain should win.  But good news for the Dems, the person that's handling the ballot of splitting the electoral votes is connected with Giuliani. Should he not win, it could spell defeat for the CA ballot initiative.

[True Democrat]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

As far as FL is concerned Bush needed McCain in 2004 to help him win FL against John Kerry no big surprise in the polls. And until the last week, CA had all but decided to vote for McCain until the comment about Jerry Falwell got McCain into trouble. Independents vote in CA so McCain should win.  But good news for the Dems, the person that's handling the ballot of splitting the electoral votes is connected with Giuliani. Should he not win, it could spell defeat for the CA ballot initiative.

I don't think anyone's expecting that thing to pass anyways.

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

The market is just giving him the benefit of the doubt.  He'll finish cratering post-Florida.

[J. J.]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

[Gustaf]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

Actually, I disagree. We've yet to see Guliani strategy put to test, whereas Huckabee's has already failed. Guliani was never going to win the nomination by winning any (perhaps except Michigan but given Romney's showing there and in Nevada it was probably never in the cards anyway) of the states we've seen vote so far. Huckabee on the other hand has seen South Carolina pass by. If he couldn't win there he can't win anywhere. So I'd actually rank Guliani higher right now.

[Sam Spade]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

[Verily]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

I'm not so sure that's the case; if Romney wins Florida, it might throw off enough of McCain's momentum for Giuliani to regain his footing in NY and NJ, at least.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

I'm not so sure that's the case; if Romney wins Florida, it might throw off enough of McCain's momentum for Giuliani to regain his footing in NY and NJ, at least.

He can't win based on that alone.

[Sam Spade]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

I'm not so sure that's the case; if Romney wins Florida, it might throw off enough of McCain's momentum for Giuliani to regain his footing in NY and NJ, at least.

I doubt if Romney wins FL, Giuliani will be able to regain his footing anywhere.

[Verily]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

I'm not so sure that's the case; if Romney wins Florida, it might throw off enough of McCain's momentum for Giuliani to regain his footing in NY and NJ, at least.

I doubt if Romney wins FL, Giuliani will be able to regain his footing anywhere.

Possibly not, and he might not bother. But I think it's at least possible, if not likely.

[Mr. Morden]

I did some re-evaluating of my Intrade account a few days ago.

I'm out of Huckabee all together now.  I should have gotten totally out a bit sooner, but I was playing with "free" money anyway—I more than made back what I paid for it by selling in the high teens.  Sold my last piece of the Huck at 4.3, which is still more than I paid post-Ames.

My current positions:
5 long on Clinton to win the nomination (bought at 55.8, now 66.0).
25 long on Richardson to win the nomination (a longshot bet bought at 2.8, now 0.1).
10 long on McCain to win the Presidency (bought at 18.8, now 19.1).
10 long on Sununu to win his race (bought at 33.4, now 41.0).
3 long on Clinton to win South Carolina (bought at 25.0, now 14.3).
7 short on Giuliani to win New Jersey (shorted at 50.0, now 40.0).
17 short on Giuliani to win Pennsylvania (shorted at 68.0, now 25.0).
About $7 in cash reserve.

That puts me up about 67% or so since the November 2006 elections (84% lifetime).  I should do this for a mutual fund or something.

Cool, so you sold your shares of "Hutchison to be the GOP VP nominee"?  Hope you made an OK profit off that.  Probably a good idea not to hold onto it now, as, with McCain looking like the probable GOP presidential nominee, I doubt he'd go with someone as old as Hutchison for his running mate.

Honestly, I think the best bargain on Intrade right now is "Giuliani to drop out of the race on or before Jan. 31st".  It's only at 6.5.  Way too low, IMHO.  He's at 15.5 to win Florida (which seems reasonable to me).  If he doesn't win Florida, is he really going to bother hanging in the race for another week so he can get clobbered by McCain in even New York and New Jersey?  Possible, but I doubt it.  (Not to mention the fact that Giuliani hates Romney, and by dropping out of the race, he could at least help McCain beat Romney, since most Giuliani supporters would probably go to McCain, and McCain wouldn't even have to fight for NY or NJ without Giuliani in the way.)

If Giuliani loses Florida, I actually think there's probably a better than 50/50 chance that he's out of the race by the end of the day on the 31st.  In fact, he's probably out by the end of the day on the 30th, since there's a GOP debate in CA on the night of the 30th, and he'd probably make a decision by then.

[Sam Spade]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

I'm not so sure that's the case; if Romney wins Florida, it might throw off enough of McCain's momentum for Giuliani to regain his footing in NY and NJ, at least.

I doubt if Romney wins FL, Giuliani will be able to regain his footing anywhere.

Possibly not, and he might not bother. But I think it's at least possible, if not likely.

Look at it this way (taking all ridiculous possibilities into account) -

If Romney wins FL, Huckabee and Giuliani may stick in just to poach delegates and see if they can't become kingmaker at the convention like Edwards (or stop Romney, either at the convention or during the campaign, because I suspect both candidates don't like him). 

Both Huckabee and Giuliani have no money left, and if Giuliani doesn't win Florida, he has no chance of anything left (Huckabee already doesn't in this scenario, but he'll probably still compete because I think he can get some delegates in this scenario).

If McCain wins FL, it's over.

If Giuliani wins FL, chaos will return somewhat.  Fairly decent chance we head towards the brokered convention.  Still, Huckabee won't have money, but maybe Giuliani will get some cash with a win.  At least enough to continue (actually both will probably continue through Feb. 5 - why, I don't know).  But this scenario is precisely the reason why Giuliani has viability (however small) and Huckabee doesn't, IMHO.

If Huckabee wins FL,... well, that isn't happening.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Romney or Giuliani wins Florida, Huckabee might continue to have a chance if he sweeps the south on Super Tuesday. At this point I'd say the only thing a Giuliani win in Florida would result in for him would be a rebound and taking of NY and NJ. Where does he go from there?

[Mr. Morden]

I agree with Sam that the most chaotic situation would be if Giuliani were to actually win Florida, though I don't think that would lead to a brokered convention.  It would lead to Giuliani getting a boost in the polls, which would largely come out of McCain.  But it's hard to guess at just how big that boost would be.  We don't even know where the national polls stand **right now**, since Rasmussen is the only pollster to release a national poll since Saturday, and half of their sample is from before McCain won SC.

Since we're not even sure where things stand nationally right now, it's too hard to guess what effect this or that result in Florida would have.  The only thing I can say with reasonable confidence is that McCain is presumably still ahead nationally, and if he wins Florida, his lead would presumably get at least a little bigger and it would be hard for anyone else to catch up.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton gains at Obama's expense. Edwards drops into 4th place.

Guiliani down a bit, Huckabee up a bit. Thompson drops for an obvious reason.

Nomination
Clinton 67.0
Obama 31.4
Gore 0.9
Edwards 0.8
Richardson 0.1


South Carolina
Obama 88.0
Clinton 12.5
Edwards 0.8

California
Clinton 80.0
Obama 20.0
Edwards 0.1


REPUBLICANS
McCain 50.9
Romney 25.5
Guiliani 16.3
Huckabee 4.1
Paul 1.7
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.4
Thompson 0.1

Florida
McCain 50.1
Romney 30.0
Romney 19.5
Huckabee 3.5 (Field)

California
McCain 60.0
Romney 25.0
Giuiiani 14.0
Huckabee 2.0 (Field)
Thompson 0.5 (Ummm)

[© tweed]

Rudy's chances of winning the nomination are now greater than his price to win Florida, which makes absolutely no sense to me...



and Gore > Edwards

[Mr. Morden]

Rudy's chances of winning the nomination are now greater than his price to win Florida, which makes absolutely no sense to me...

I was about to write a post making the same point.  You're 100% correct that it makes no sense.  Obviously, his chances of winning Florida should be higher than his chances of winning the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Current top contenders for the VP nominees, according to Intrade:

Obama 16.0
Gore 12.4
Bayh 11.1
Richardson 10.0
Edwards 9.0

Huckabee 24.9
Thompson 10.1
Pawlenty 7.7
McCain 7.6
Romney 5.1

Intrade has never seemed to be very good with the VP odds, IMHO.

[Erc]

Current top contenders for the VP nominees, according to Intrade:

Obama 16.0
Gore 12.4
Bayh 11.1
Richardson 10.0
Edwards 9.0

Huckabee 24.9
Thompson 10.1
Pawlenty 7.7
McCain 7.6
Romney 5.1

Intrade has never seemed to be very good with the VP odds, IMHO.

With a couple of exceptions, the volume's light, so we shouldn't expect it to have cleared.

[Mr. Morden]

The volume on Gore to be the Dem. VP nominee is insanely high compared to everyone else in that market.  I guess there are a bunch of Gore fanboys who keep making bets with the people who are sane, and that drives up the volume.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL, Thompson at 10%

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's on fire now, near an all-time high, and roughly triple where he was after losing NH:

McCain 50,0
Romney 30.9
Giuliani 14.8
Huckabee 3.5

Giuliani is now up to 12.0 to drop out by the end of January (still too low IMHO).  Edwards, Giuliani, and Huckabee are all above 75% to drop out by the end of February.