New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Romney passes Giuliani for 2nd place in the GOP nomination market:

McCain 35.0
Romney 22.5
Giuliani 21.6
Huckabee 14.4
Thompson 3.5

[© tweed]

Mitt motherg Romney.

he's at 82% to win MI

[© tweed]

Romney at 90.0 to win Michigan

[Sam Spade]

Romney at 90.0 to win Michigan

Thank you, Inks, for letting us know.

[© tweed]

Romney at 90.0 to win Michigan

Thank you, Inks, for letting us know.

not sure I understand.  but I'm sure it's just another of your 9380938 underhanded shots from the sidelines recently so I'll let it go.

[Sam Spade]

Romney at 90.0 to win Michigan

Thank you, Inks, for letting us know.

not sure I understand.  but I'm sure it's just another of your 9380938 underhanded shots from the sidelines recently so I'll let it go.

Remember New Hampshire....  93%... 94%.... 95%.... 96% 

[J. J.]

I still suggest a Romney buy tonight, if you are not too late.

For nominee, not primary.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP brokered convention is now all the way up to 31.8%.  People are overreacting to three different winners in the first three primaries.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not much change on the Democratic side. Where's uncommitted?

Everyone gains at McCain's expense. He had the mittens beaten off of him.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 59.0
Obama 39.5
Edwards 1.3
Gore 1.0
Richardson 0.1

Nevada
Obama 58.0
Clinton 40.0
Edwards 14.0

South Carolina
Obama 80.0
Clinton 15.0
Edwards 4.9

REPUBLICANS
McCain 32.5
Romney 22.5
Giuliani 21.4
Huckabee 15.2
Thompson 4.4
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 0.4
Rice 0.4
Bloomberg 0.2


Nevada
Romney 40.0
McCain 23.0
Huckabee 10.0 (Field)
Thompson 8.0
Giuliani 6.0

South Carolina
McCain 40.0
Huckabee 37.9 (Field)
Thompson 14.0
Romney 10.0
Giuliani 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton has a gain at Obama's expense.

McCain has a substantial gain at Romney's expense. Today's traders must not think much of Michigan.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 60.0
Obama 37.0
Edwards 1.1
Gore 1.0
Richardson 0.1

Nevada
Obama 55.0
Clinton 41.0
Edwards 10.0

South Carolina
Obama 84.8
Clinton 16.5
Edwards 1.0

REPUBLICANS
McCain 37.0
Guiliani 22.0
Romney 16.4
Huckabee 14.0
Thompson 3.5
Paul 2.0
Gingrich 0.4
Rice 0.4
Bloomberg 0.2


Nevada
Romney 55.0
McCain 35.0
Guiliani 5.0
Huckabee 3.0 (Field)
Thompson 1.1

South Carolina
McCain 49.9
Huckabee 38.0 (Field)
Thompson 16.0
Romney 5.2
Giuliani 0.1

[© tweed]

IEM numbers...

Clinton 55.0
Obama 42.0
Edwards 2.6
Rest of Field 0.7

McCain 38.8
Romney 21.0
Giuliani 18.8
Huckabee 16.0
Thompson 3.0
Rest of Field 2.3

[Eraserhead]

I wonder how big an impact NV will have...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama gains a little at Clinton's expense.

McCain gains at Guiliani's expense, now leads him 2-1 for first place.  Romney gains a bit.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 58.6
Obama 39.6
Edwards 1.7
Gore 1.0
Richardson 0.1

Nevada
Obama 54.0
Clinton 40.0
Edwards 6.1

South Carolina
Obama 83.9
Clinton 14.5
Edwards 2.0

REPUBLICANS
McCain 39.4
Guiliani 19.7
Romney 19.0
Huckabee 13.0
Thompson 2.9
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 0.4
Rice 0.4
Bloomberg 0.2


Nevada
Romney 79.9
McCain 20.0
Huckabee 4.1 (Field)
Thompson 0.5
Guiliani 0.1

South Carolina
McCain 72.5
Huckabee 25.0 (Field)
Thompson 6.0
Romney 0.1
Giuliani 0.1

[Erc]

This week is the first time Giuliani's below 20 since early February 2007.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's at just 15.0 to win Florida, which seems kind of low to me.  I mean, most polls have had him not that many points behind 1st place there, and he has the same advantage he had in MI: The state is way too big for retail politics to be a deciding factor, so TV advertising could be very important, and Romney has the ability to spend way more than his rivals on TV.  If he was way behind in the polls, then his $ wouldn't be able to save him, but he's *not* way behind in the polls there, so it could matter a great deal.

In fact, I'm thinking that Romney's chances of winning Florida are probably greater than his chances of winning the nomination, as I'm not sure he can do the latter without the former, because:

1) Anyone who does poorly on Feb. 5th will not win the nomination.
2) Anyone who's below 20% in national polls on Feb. 5th will probably do very poorly that day.
3) I don't think Romney will be able to break 20% in the national polls unless he wins either SC or FL, and it doesn't look like he's going to win SC.

[© tweed]

Romney > Giuliani.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Romney > Giuliani.

I know, it's shocking that someone with 2 golds and 2 silvers is given better odds than someone with 1 4th place, 2 6th places, and 1 no recorded votes.

[MarkWarner08]

South Carolina
McCain 72.5
Huckabee 25.0 (Field)
Thompson 6.0
Romney 0.1
Giuliani 0.1

This is an unbelievably undervalued stock. Huckabee is down by 2-5 points in most polls and the remaining undecided voters are most evangelicals. McCain's also falling in terms of momentum because of Romney's win and smears on his military record.

[© tweed]

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 57.0
Obama 41.1
Edwards 1.0
Gore 0.9
Richardson 0.1

Nevada
Clinton 61.0
Obama 40.0
Edwards 1.8

South Carolina
Obama 78.0
Clinton 20.0
Edwards 1.3

REPUBLICANS
McCain 38.0
Guiliani 20.5
Romney 20.2
Huckabee 14.6
Paul 2.7
Thompson 2.4
Gingrich 0.6
Rice 0.5
Bloomberg 0.1


Nevada
Romney 94.9
McCain 9.0
Huckabee 2.3 (Field)
Giuliani 1.0
Thompson 0.5


South Carolina
Huckabee 55.0 (Field)
McCain 45.0
Thompson 3.0
Romney 0.1
Giuliani 0.1

[© tweed]

Iowa Electronic Markets



McCain 42.4
Romney 23.0
Giuliani 17.5
Huckabee 16.0
Thompson 3.0
Rest of Field 2.0




Clinton 56.8
Obama 40.5
Edwards 3.1
Rest of Field 0.7

[Mr. Morden]

Romney gets a boost, and McCain takes a slight hit:

McCain 37.0
Romney 22.5
Giuliani 20.5
Huckabee 14.7

[J. J.]

Okay, buy McCain!

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade now gives Clinton a 97% chance of winning NV.  She's also surging on the odds to win the nom.:

Clinton 63.0
Obama 38.0
Edwards 1.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton gains due to her expected Nevada win.

Romney only gets a slight boost from his blowout victory.

Nomination
Clinton 63.0
Obama 38.0
Edwards 1.1
Gore 0.9
Richardson 0.1

Nevada
Clinton 97.0
Obama 3.5
Edwards 0.1

South Carolina
Obama 80.0
Clinton 22.9
Edwards 2.0

REPUBLICANS
McCain 37.0
Romney 22.8
Guiliani 20.5
Huckabee 14.5
Paul 2.6
Thompson 2.4
Gingrich 0.5
Rice 0.5
Bloomberg 0.1


South Carolina
Huckabee 56.0 (Field)
McCain 38.7
Thompson 3.0
Romney 0.7

[Mr. Morden]

Odds of dropping out by Jan. 31st:

Thompson 70.1
Edwards 39.9
Giuliani 10.1
Huckabee 10.0

Giuliani's too low I think.  If he loses badly in FL, then there's a good chance that he'll drop out as early as Jan. 30th.