New Tradesports rankings

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The numbers are stabilizing now around Hillary 56, Obama 42.

Obviously it won't stay that way forever until Nevada, we'll have to see how endorsements and polls come, but the odds of Obama reaching around 50 aren't impossible. Then again, there's probably equal chance of Hillary nearing her previous highs, 65 at least is doable.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The numbers in Nevada now are absolutely loopy. Both Hillary and Obama's last transactions are well above 50. Hillary has the higher bid/ask but Obama has the higher last transaction. I say ignore for now due to the low volume.

In SC however, Hillary gets a huge boost but Obama is still the clear favorite.

[© tweed]

Gore went up on Intrade.

IEM closing prices last night:

Clinton 55.3 (+32.2)
Obama 39.5 (-30.6)
Edwards 3.6 (-1.4)
Rest of Field 0.5 (-1.5)

McCain 38.0 (-4.5)
Giuliani 23.6 (-0.8 )
Huckabee 17.0 (+0.2)
Romney 16.5 (+0.6)
Rest of Field 1.7 (-1.3)
Thompson 1.4 (-0.9)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gore went up on Intrade.

All that happens with Gore on InTrade is fluctuations from people who bought his stock or shorted him earlier and are trying to collect now. It's about as relevant as the movement around Rice.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All non-joke (read: Thompson) GOP candidates gain for some reason. What's with the Romney and Giuliani people? Even Paul is slowly winding down.

McCain 37.2
Giuliani 29.5
Huckabee 16.7
Romney 11.5
Paul 3.0
Thompson 1.8

Dem side remains stable. Edwards ties Gore (my point about Gore above still stands though)

Clinton 58.6
Obama 38.5
Edwards 1.0
Gore 1.0

South Carolina:

Obama 72.0
Clinton 25.0

Nevada:

Obama 60.0
Clinton 40.0

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Giuliani's numbers are holding steady, I'd guess, because there's no presumptive GOP nominee at this point, which is what his campaign was banking on.

Romney's numbers are still around a reasonable (IMHO) 11.5 because there's still an off-hand chance (about a 11.5% chance, even!) that he could win Michigan and turn things around.  Neither McCain nor Huckabee have an effortless road to the nomination at this point.

McCain's numbers seem a bit too high at the moment, though I'd never short him.  Huckabee's numbers seem a bit too low.  I'm holding my Huckabee shares, and may look into buying Clinton as South Carolina/Nevada approach.

Shorting Giuliani to win Pennsylvania was a great move.  It's down to 50 from 70 a few weeks prior.

[© tweed]

Iowa Electronic Markets

Clinton 57.5 (+2.2)
Obama 39.0 (-0.5)
Edwards 2.5 (-1.1)
Rest of Field 0.6 (+0.1)

McCain 38.0 (0)
Giuliani 26.4 (+2.8 )
Huckabee 20.6 (+3.6)
Romney 19.0 (+3.5)
Thompson 2.0 (+0.6)
Rest of Field 2.0 (+0.3)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama on the rebound. Union endorsements or just statistical fluctuation?

I found comparing the winning individual numbers to the nomination numbers interesting, although they aren't really directly comparable due to a much lower volume for winning individual. According to them Hillary has a better chance of winning the general election if nominated (almost 63%) than Obama (around 57%). Of course Hillary's chances are only slightly better than the Democrats winning contract (62%) again proving the pointless of direct comparison. However it also puts McCain's chances at winning if nominated at barely higher than 40%, which I agree with but I'm sure many here won't.

[© tweed]

McCain on fire.  45.9 on Intrade.  highest since mid-January of 2007.

[Mr. Morden]

Just what is it going to take for Giuliani to drop down to ~10 for the nomination?  Does he have to start winning negative delegates?

[The Mikado]

Just what is it going to take for Giuliani to drop down to ~10 for the nomination?  Does he have to start winning negative delegates?

A loss in Florida would serve nicely.

[Mr. Morden]

Maybe if we simply get a few polls showing him losing really badly in FL, that would do the trick.  Otherwise, yeah, we might have to wait until he actually loses it for him to crash further on Intrade.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Just what is it going to take for Giuliani to drop down to ~10 for the nomination?  Does he have to start winning negative delegates?

Just takes some patience.  He's already down to 20 as I write this, with bids in the teens.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Almost all my money on RCP's mock InTrade is shorting Giuliani now. I want him dropping faster.

I shouldn't have cashed out my shorts on Fred Thompson as the winning individual so soon. I made a nice profit on that but it would've been even higher now. I shorted back when it looked like Thompson had a great shot at winning the nomination on the grounds that he'd never win the general in a million years (I have to chuckle in hindsight at the GOP hacks who thought he'd be a fantastic candidate).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Almost all my money on RCP's mock InTrade is shorting Giuliani now. I want him dropping faster.

I shouldn't have cashed out my shorts on Fred Thompson as the winning individual so soon. I made a nice profit on that but it would've been even higher now. I shorted back when it looked like Thompson had a great shot at winning the nomination on the grounds that he'd never win the general in a million years (I have to chuckle in hindsight at the GOP hacks who thought he'd be a fantastic candidate).

The way you write that, it sounds like a significant portion of Republicans actually thought Fred Thompson was a good candidate.

If that was the case, he might have cracked 20% in a poll sometime!

[© tweed]

if Thompson had a) got in by July, b) run a competent campaign, and c) cared, he would be a top contender and Huckabee would never have been a factor.

Giuliani below 20.  McCain approaching a coin flip.  Romney in single digits (for the first time since mid-March 2006.) 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama rebounds a bit at Clinton's expense.

McCain is the clear front-runner for the Republicans.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 56.0
Obama 42.5
Edwards 1.4
Gore 0.9
Richardson 0.1


Nevada
Obama 55.0
Clinton 50.0
Edwards 1.1
Richardson 0.1

South Carolina
Obama 64.9
Clinton 33.6
Edwards 0.1

California
Clinton 55.0
Obama 45.0
Edwards 0.1


REPUBLICANS
McCain 48.8
Giuliani 19.6
Huckabee 16.0
Romney 9.2
Thompson 3.4
Paul 2.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Gingrich 0.4
Rice 0.4

Michigan
McCain 60.0
Romney 33.0
Huckabee 8.9 (Field)

Nevada
MCain 37.1
Romney 26.0
Giuliani 14.5
Huckabee 10.0 (Field)
Thompson 4.5

South Carolina
McCain 49.4
Huckabee 43.5 (Field)
Thompson 3.6
Romney 2.2
Giuliani 0.1

Florida
McCain 47.2
Giuliani 26.6
Huckabee 20.0 (Field)
Romney 2.5
Thompson 2.0

California
McCain 45.0
Giuliani 40.1
Romney 10.0
Huckabee 7.0 (Field)
Thompson 2.0







The fall and rise of John McCain:

[Likely Voter]

Just what is it going to take for Giuliani to drop down to ~10 for the nomination?  Does he have to start winning negative delegates?

A loss in Florida would serve nicely.

But, as I have said before, shouldn't that be priced in right now. After two losses he has dropped in FL and it will only get worse after MI, NV and SC. Plus he has money problems.

Clearly Huckabee has a better shot at the nomination and probably Romney as well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Almost all my money on RCP's mock InTrade is shorting Giuliani now. I want him dropping faster.

I shouldn't have cashed out my shorts on Fred Thompson as the winning individual so soon. I made a nice profit on that but it would've been even higher now. I shorted back when it looked like Thompson had a great shot at winning the nomination on the grounds that he'd never win the general in a million years (I have to chuckle in hindsight at the GOP hacks who thought he'd be a fantastic candidate).

The way you write that, it sounds like a significant portion of Republicans actually thought Fred Thompson was a good candidate.

If that was the case, he might have cracked 20% in a poll sometime!

I didn't say significant portion of Republicans, I said GOP hacks. DWTL believed he would've carried California and Connecticut against Obama.

[© tweed]

Romney > Huckabee on last transaction

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's surging, ahead of Huckabee now, presumably because of the recent polls from MI.  Latest GOP nom. numbers:

McCain 44.0
Giuliani 18.6
Romney 13.7
Huckabee 13.5
Thompson 3.4

Thompson to drop out by Jan. 31st is at 80.0.  Personally, I expect that he'll drop out a week from today, just after making a poor showing in SC.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Little change on the Democratic side.

Romney gains at Huckabee and McCain's expenses due to Romney looking a little better in Michigan.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 56.9
Obama 43.0
Edwards 1.4
Gore 0.9
Richardson 0.1


REPUBLICANS
McCain 43.1
Giuliani 19.0
Huckabee 13.1
Romney 12.8
Thompson 3.5
Paul 2.3
Bloomberg 0.5
Gingrich 0.4
Rice 0.4

Michigan
McCain 54.5
Romney 48.9
Huckabee 4.0 (Field)
Guiliani 0.1

[© tweed]

IEM

Clinton 53.8
Obama 43.5
Edwards 2.1
Rest of Field 0.7

McCain 45.2
Huckabee 17.0
Giuliani 16.7
Romney 15.5
Thompson 2.8
Rest of Field 1.7

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade now has the odds of a brokered GOP convention at 22.7%.  I'm sorry, but that's just absurd.  While there's certainly a non-zero chance of it happening, the chances are still pretty high that someone will be far enough ahead nationally going into Feb. 5th, that they'll end up the undisputed Super Tuesday winner, after which it'll be extremely difficult for anyone else to catch up.  So even if things aren't over on Feb. 5th, I think they'll almost certainly be over by some time prior to the convention.  If the GOP had more states that allocated delegates by proportional respresentation, then it might be different, but most of their states are WTA statewide or WTA by district, meaning that someone could be sitting at 35% nationally on Feb. 5th, and still sweep up most of the delegates.

[© tweed]

if Romney wins tomorrow it becomes a real possibility.