Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Reaganfan]

I think the American people are frustrated because neither Obama or McCain seem to have a grasp on what Americans care about most...the economy. Obama came into this election as "no more George Bush...no more Iraq War" and suddenly realizes people don't see either man as George Bush and the Iraq War has been won. McCain came into this race as "experience and country first...and strong on foreign policy."

Bottom line...if the stock market stablizes...I think both men hope that they can move back into normal campaign mode. If Bin Laden releases a tape...Obama will campaign saying "Bush didn't find Bin Laden" like John Kerry did....McCain will campaign on "We must confront this evil."

Maybe it is because I moved...but the campaign become surreal around two weeks ago...when McCain overtook Obama big time...the the economy went south and Obama tied...then this past week (I had no internet or cable) when I had to read newspapers and listen to talk radio to hear about polls, bailouts, presidential emergency addresses and debate plans.

Let's hope this week normals out.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I think the American people are frustrated because neither Obama or McCain seem to have a grasp on what Americans care about most...the economy. Obama came into this election as "no more George Bush...no more Iraq War" and suddenly realizes people don't see either man as George Bush and the Iraq War has been won. McCain came into this race as "experience and country first...and strong on foreign policy."

Bottom line...if the stock market stablizes...I think both men hope that they can move back into normal campaign mode. If Bin Laden releases a tape...Obama will campaign saying "Bush didn't find Bin Laden" like John Kerry did....McCain will campaign on "We must confront this evil."

Maybe it is because I moved...but the campaign become surreal around two weeks ago...when McCain overtook Obama big time...the the economy went south and Obama tied...then this past week (I had no internet or cable) when I had to read newspapers and listen to talk radio to hear about polls, bailouts, presidential emergency addresses and debate plans.

Let's hope this week normals out.

While neither candidate has a firm grasp on the economy, the polls are showing that Obama gets it more than McCain does.

This crisis happened because of poor regulation and bad decisions by those in power in the financial sector.  I think George W. Bush understands better than McCain when he says "if there were a way I could let these Wall Street firms fail without it affecting any of you, I'd do it.  But if these firms fail, it will affect you and your family greatly"

This crisis has caught McCain off guard, because he is all about foreign policy and patriotism and fighting terrorism and he knows little about the economy.  He would just assume let the economy do what it will.

Unfortunately for him, the American people are very afraid to let the economy just do what it will.

Beyond that, I have to comment again on the ethanol statement in the debate.  People in my region of the country are high information voters.  They were watching this debate on TV with their antennas (we have a much lower rate of satellite/cable than the rest of hte country) and when he specifically came out against ethanol studies, he lost in Minnesota, Iowa, and very possibly in Indiana.

To put this in perspective... Mike Hatch was ahead of Tim Pawlenty in the governor's race here 2 years ago.  And then his running mate forgot what E-85 is... then Hatch lost.  This was his campaign's biggest gaffe and it cost him the governorship.

McCain is out of touch with midwest voters who are dovish on foreign policy, care a lot more about economics, and are very supportive of ethanol.  John McCain is absolutely the worst candidate for these people right now.

[Sam Spade]

One other minor point:  The gender gap has gotten quite large over the past couple of weeks.

[Aizen]

hay guyz, i'm down in the polls i'm a gonna SUSPEND my campaign LOL

uh oh whoopsy daisy my stunt is making me fall even further in the polls UNSUSPEND time


BTW, where is J.J?

[Reaganfan]

I think the American people are frustrated because neither Obama or McCain seem to have a grasp on what Americans care about most...the economy.

Oh, wait a minute!  Wasn't there someone who had more successful executive experience than any other candidates in the primaries?  He turned countless companies from money pits to profit machines, he turned the Olympics from a disaster to a huge success, he also balanced and streamlined a horrible state budget...  Ugh, it's on the tip of my tongue... What was that guy's name?!

Well...it's not Mitt Romney...so...Mike Rounds maybe?

[Zarn]

I think the American people are frustrated because neither Obama or McCain seem to have a grasp on what Americans care about most...the economy.

Oh, wait a minute!  Wasn't there someone who had more successful executive experience than any other candidates in the primaries?  He turned countless companies from money pits to profit machines, he turned the Olympics from a disaster to a huge success, he also balanced and streamlined a horrible state budget...  Ugh, it's on the tip of my tongue... What was that guy's name?!

Romney is just as corrupt as Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

One other minor point:  The gender gap has gotten quite large over the past couple of weeks.

Does that mean anything? Or is it just an interesting observation?

[Rowan]

One other minor point:  The gender gap has gotten quite large over the past couple of weeks.

Does that mean anything? Or is it just an interesting observation?

It means that women like Obama and men like McCain.

[ucscgaldamez]

..though it is closer among men than it is among women.

[Sam Spade]

..though it is closer among men than it is among women.

Yes, but more importantly, here's the comparison to 2004:

Men (McCain +8 (-3))
Women (Obama +17 (-14))

[riceowl]

confused.  does that mean:

Men:  Bush +5
Women: Kerry +3

?

[Sam Spade]

confused.  does that mean:

Men:  Bush +5
Women: Kerry +3

?

Men were Bush +11.

[Meeker]

confused.  does that mean:

Men:  Bush +5
Women: Kerry +3

?

Men were Bush +11.

Women were +31 Kerry?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think he means what McCain is losing from Bush. So +3 Kerry.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - September 28, 2008:

Obama - 50% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

[Rowan]

It's now 49-42 without leaners and the certain to vote for question is 42-38.

MAC gains two among Indies but other than that not much real movement in the internals.

[Sam Spade]

Numbers-wise, today's sample was better than the one that went off for Obama.  For McCain it was roughly about the same.  I'll estimate it as Obama +7.68%.  A pro-McCain sample comes off tomorrow, so there well could be another bump.

[Iosif]

Tomorrow's state polls should be fun.

If Obama's not up in Ohio and Florida now he'll never be.

[Rowan]

Numbers-wise, today's sample was better than the one that went off for Obama.  For McCain it was roughly about the same.  I'll estimate it as Obama +7.68%.  A pro-McCain sample comes off tomorrow, so there well could be another bump.

Last night estimate:
Obama +7.7%

But it is a bit of an improvement considering it was Obama +11 the previous night.

[Sam Spade]

Numbers-wise, today's sample was better than the one that went off for Obama.  For McCain it was roughly about the same.  I'll estimate it as Obama +7.68%.  A pro-McCain sample comes off tomorrow, so there well could be another bump.

Last night estimate:
Obama +7.7%

But it is a bit of an improvement considering it was Obama +11 the previous night.

Actually, it was closer to Obama +12, but it's not a biggie.

[minionofmidas]

Romney is just as corrupt as Obama.

Facts?  Oh, there are none?  Surprise!

What are you angry about? He just called Romney a shining beacon of cleanness by Republican standards.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - September 28, 2008:

Obama - 50% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama now leads by sixteen points among women but trails by six among men. Obama and McCain are essentially even among White Women, a constituency that George W. Bush won by eleven points four years ago. Obama is now supported by 13% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats. For most of the year, McCain enjoyed more crossover support than Obama

[big bad fab]

Sunday - September 28, 2008:

Obama - 50% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama now leads by sixteen points among women but trails by six among men. Obama and McCain are essentially even among White Women, a constituency that George W. Bush won by eleven points four years ago. Obama is now supported by 13% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats. For most of the year, McCain enjoyed more crossover support than Obama

Game over, I'm afraid.

[Sam Spade]

Taking a gander through the internals of the bailout numbers Rasmussen posted this morning, which should contain the same sample for his Prez election numbers, I'm willing to make the educated guess that the sample for today is *roughly* McCain +2.

So, expect the topline numbers to remain the same, since this is *roughly* the same sample as what dropped off.

[Kalimantan]

Taking a gander through the internals of the bailout numbers Rasmussen posted this morning, which should contain the same sample for his Prez election numbers, I'm willing to make the educated guess that the sample for today is *roughly* McCain +2.

So, expect the topline numbers to remain the same, since this is *roughly* the same sample as what dropped off.

I would find it really strange that, at a time when Obama appears to be around +5 or better in the trackers, and in a day just after the debate in which Obama was considered to have done better than McCain by the watching focus groups, McCain could have a +2 sample.

On the same point, I also find it really strange that the R2K tracker is producing consecutive daily figures in sequences such as O+5, O+6, O+7, O+5, O+4 etc., and yet you are claiming that Ras, with a sample size three times larger, is flicking between such extremes as, for example O+11 and M+2 on consecutive days.