Australia 2022 Election

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Are the leads in the seats in doubt notional or pretty much a sure thing?

Alternatively: what's the likelihood of Labor still needing Green/crossbench support for a majority?

I'm pretty sure anything that hasn't been called could conceivably go either way.

It's hard to imagine Labor doesn't hit 76 seats, but the majority will probably be narrow enough that most of the crossbench being left-leaning will still be important to their ability to govern robustly.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

They've got more support than the far right but jobs you stan

not from working class Australians.

Even from working class australinans they do

most working class Australians oppose unauthorised immigration by boat, which the Greens support.

"Most" still leaves plenty who don't base their vote on it and vote for the Greens. Contrary to what the Coalition thinks, not every member of the working class is a middle-aged male tradie with a "f/ck off, we're full" sticker on his 4WD. Nurses, teachers, waitresses, aged care workers or cleaning ladies vote too.

This is a huge problem in American analysis of Obama->Trump voters too. There is a difference between holding this or that socioculturally conservative view and prioritizing it over other concerns when one votes.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

What could also help Labor, in any event, is if they could end up getting a teal indy to be named the Speaker of the House.

I can't really see this happening. Of the 10 independents, 9 will be in either their first or second term, meaning they aren't very experienced in the rules and standing orders. Labor will also remember the Slipper debacle well and will hardly be keen to suffer any repeat. Rob Mitchell seems to be the next cab off the rank on Labor's side and I expect he'll be elected Speaker when Parliament comes back.

If Labor winds up on exactly 76 seats, wouldn't there be an issue about their having a majority on the floor? Or is that not typically taken into consideration even though it recently has been in other Westminster systems like, say, BC in 2017?

The Speaker can cast a tiebreaking vote.

Also, since there's an even number of seats, 76 minus a Labor Speaker gives 75-74, not 75-75.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Also, since there's an even number of seats, 76 minus a Labor Speaker gives 75-74, not 75-75.

There are 151 total seats, no?

I didn't realize that had been changed. But yes, apparently since 2019 it's been 151. My mistake.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

And with Albo announcing his Ministry, I think we can officially declare the election season over.

Among the appointments is Matt Thistlethwaite, who has been made Assistant Minister for the Republic!

What is the Assistant Minister for the Republic? Why does Australia even have a position like that, it isn't even a republic.

Albo is a republican and wants to restart that conversation, but he's also spoken highly of the Queen on a personal level so, as Bruce implies...

(This is my view as well, btw; monarchy is bad, but doing the job competently and more or less benignly for seventy years is pretty damn impressive.)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

And with Albo announcing his Ministry, I think we can officially declare the election season over.

Among the appointments is Matt Thistlethwaite, who has been made Assistant Minister for the Republic!

What is the Assistant Minister for the Republic? Why does Australia even have a position like that, it isn't even a republic.

Albo is a republican and wants to restart that conversation, but he's also spoken highly of the Queen on a personal level so, as Bruce implies...

(This is my view as well, btw; monarchy is bad, but doing the job competently and more or less benignly for seventy years is pretty damn impressive.)

Makes sense. Personally, I expect a lot of Commonwealth countries to sever ties with the Crown once Charles becomes King. IIRC, some Caribbean countries have already taken steps to do so.

Yeah, Elizabeth II the person is more popular than the monarchy/~The Crown~ the institution in most of the world, and massively more popular than Prince Charles the person pretty much everywhere under the sun. William isn't going over all that well in a lot of places either these days, even though he was popular or seen as popular five or ten years ago.