Canadian Election 2019

[MaxQue]

Big news in Ontario, CUPE and Ontario government have reached a deal so that means no strike on Monday.  Probably a relief to Scheer as while may not help him, a strike almost certainly would have hurt him and with his horrible showing in the French debate, Quebec is lost for the Tories, so they can ill afford to perform poorly in Ontario as well.

The Conservatives should win most of Quebec City and area.

Sure, but that's 0 net gains, as they already hold most those seats. Only Beauce, Québec and Louis-Hébert are not Conservative held, and I doubt they would gain those anyways (Beauce is probably the most likely of them).

[MaxQue]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

That's what I would do if I lived in a riding where only Liberals and Conservatives were competitive too. I'd also have no choice but to vote Liberal in Quebec.

What about a riding like mine, which is described a Lib-NDP-Bloc three-way race (with Conservatives irrelevent)?

[MaxQue]

I find it interesting that Muclair hates Singh due to his stance on Bill 21.

Mulcair is probably forced to that by his rabidly pro-21 employer, PKP.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/MariekeWalsh/status/1182481910527909893

Trudeau doing his best Kellie Leitch impression.

Why on earth is he doing this? This seems like something that would turn off more voters than gain, if for no other reason but because it seems rather phony from him.

I would also say he is just stating the legal situation. Nothing stops Quebec government from using that test as a condition for delivering a CSQ. Any other answer would just be a lie for the sake of posturing.

[MaxQue]

The Bloc says it will not take part in formal coalition or alliance. Will give support piece by piece, bill by bill.

So neither the Liberals or the Conservatives could rely on their support? Correct me if I'm wrong, but this would mean that either the Conservatives or Liberals+NDP would need to get 170, right?

No, it could also mean a minority government carrying business without a deal and just negociating every bill (like in 2004-2011).

[MaxQue]

The Bloc says it will not take part in formal coalition or alliance. Will give support piece by piece, bill by bill.

So neither the Liberals or the Conservatives could rely on their support? Correct me if I'm wrong, but this would mean that either the Conservatives or Liberals+NDP would need to get 170, right?

No, it could also mean a minority government carrying business without a deal and just negociating every bill (like in 2004-2011).

But who gets to be PM if neither side has a majority and the Bloc stays neutral?

Trudeau gets the first shot as incumbent, so he either forfeits it to the Conservatives and present a Throne's Speech (where Bloc will have a take a decision (which may be abstention)).

[MaxQue]

What's the likelihood of either Wilson-Raybould or Philpotts winning as an independent? I guess that might be relevant to the electoral calculus if Lib + NDP is about the same as Con.

I think, my observation, is that Wilson-Raybould has a better chance of winning then Philpott does.

Why are CON and NDP contesting those seats.  Should they not step aside to back these two to highlight their concern and anger over the Lavalin affair ?  Especially when Wilson-Raybould seat it seems neither CON nor NDP has much of a chance anyway.

Because Wilson-Raybould was a very incompetent Justice minister.

[MaxQue]

Election models are pretty good at the national leevel, but maaaann are they bad at the riding level. Seeing a lot of predictions that the NDP will pick up Acadie-Bathurst despite not running Yvon Godin. The models really need some sort of adjustment for candidates.

They are running Daniel Thériault, long time president of the Acadien Festival, which is considered a star candidate.

[MaxQue]

Does not Conservative weakness in Quebec go back to the execution of Louis Riel in 1885? Since then only occasional elections produced a Conservative majority in federal elections in Quebec.

I would point the election of Laurier as Liberal leader as when Conservatie weakness began in Quebec. Conservative results were still decent between 1885 and that.

[MaxQue]

In this analogy, would Liberal historic dominance amongst voters from visible minorities be analogous to the surprising success Conservatives had with working class voters in the decades after 1867?

Yes, that's an excellent parallel actually.

For that matter, why have the Liberals been so good at keeping the support of those voters (with the partial exception of the Chinese)? In principle you would expect them to be a much stronger demographic for the NDP.

A lot of this is related to Canada's lack of a real municipal socialist tradition: local government has tended to be 'non-partisan' and dominated by business interests, and reformist challenges to the conservative local government establishment have usually been decoupled from organised labour. So the key entry point for working class minorities to enter Left politics directly does not exist. Minority politics, instead, tends to be driven to an even greater degree than in most Western countries by community leaders, and who is better at playing the ensuing game of arbitrage than the Liberals?

I would say there is a municipal contratrian tradition, at least in Quebec.
Left-wingers elected in right-wing cities (see Quebec City) and right-wingers in left-wing cities (see Saguenay with the ultra-Catholic Jean Tremblay).

[MaxQue]

Greens leading the NDP by over 3000 votes in Winnipeg Centre (Manitoba). This could be their fourth seat.

She got like 4000 votes in the last update, this is an obvious mistake.

[MaxQue]

At the end of the day, what a race. I think it has to be seen as a repudiation of Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives, though. He claimed he's put Trudeau "on notice," but that's what my 5th Grade teacher Mrs. Fox did when she wrote names on the whiteboard. Scheer isn't a teacher, & Trudeau isn't a 5th-grader.

As it stands, the Conservatives have received around 6.1 million votes. That's about 500,000 more votes than they received in 2015, & this was the election where it came out that the PM wore blackface more times than he could remember.

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Despite what the CBC was intimating last night, we know this: Doug Ford is a disaster for the province & the Conservatives. Conservative supporters have trumped Ford up as some messiah, despite every indication that fatigue with Liberals granted him a majority, & we have yet more proof in Toronto last night that Ford is an albatross around the Conservative neck. Maybe somebody on the right will admit he was a bad choice? Maybe, somewhere, a cadre of social conservatives are understanding the depth of their mistake in supporting him?

We know this: the anti-carbon tax crusade was a disastrous position to take, let alone clutch to your chest like a pearl necklace. The Greens received 1.1 million votes in this election. They got 600,000 in 2015, & turnout dropped this time around. Right now, we can see that the Canadian electorate is changing. I think in 5 years' time, we'll be able to say that the Canadian electorate has changed.

All of this to say that as we hear whining about Western alienation & separation in the weeks to come, it's important to remember that a party that seemingly ran on a campaign for the last 4 years (& 40 days) crafted to increase their vote count in ridings that they've already won have dug a hole that Western voters are now sitting in. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have alienated the West. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

Time to admit, for instance, that climate change is real (not a party position, but one anecdotally espoused by the CPC). Time to admit that a Conservative-originated carbon-tax might be an okay idea. Time to admit that Trudeau might be a bad PM, but not a traitor, nor a criminal, nor whatever denigrating term they're using this week.

If these results continue for Conservatives, they'll once again be shut out of government for a decade. Maybe it's time to rethink what they've done since 2011?

My friends who live in Western Canada say it’s the East who have alienated the west over and over again not the other way around . Which is why they hate the Liberals a lot .


They think the Tories are currently already too pro Quebec and pro East in general

The West keeps getting goodies and got the government to buy them a 5 billions pipeline. They have a full belly and keep whining for even more.

They are aliened because they keep whining and asking for more and nobody wants to have anything to do with the West.

[MaxQue]

At the end of the day, what a race. I think it has to be seen as a repudiation of Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives, though. He claimed he's put Trudeau "on notice," but that's what my 5th Grade teacher Mrs. Fox did when she wrote names on the whiteboard. Scheer isn't a teacher, & Trudeau isn't a 5th-grader.

As it stands, the Conservatives have received around 6.1 million votes. That's about 500,000 more votes than they received in 2015, & this was the election where it came out that the PM wore blackface more times than he could remember.

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Despite what the CBC was intimating last night, we know this: Doug Ford is a disaster for the province & the Conservatives. Conservative supporters have trumped Ford up as some messiah, despite every indication that fatigue with Liberals granted him a majority, & we have yet more proof in Toronto last night that Ford is an albatross around the Conservative neck. Maybe somebody on the right will admit he was a bad choice? Maybe, somewhere, a cadre of social conservatives are understanding the depth of their mistake in supporting him?

We know this: the anti-carbon tax crusade was a disastrous position to take, let alone clutch to your chest like a pearl necklace. The Greens received 1.1 million votes in this election. They got 600,000 in 2015, & turnout dropped this time around. Right now, we can see that the Canadian electorate is changing. I think in 5 years' time, we'll be able to say that the Canadian electorate has changed.

All of this to say that as we hear whining about Western alienation & separation in the weeks to come, it's important to remember that a party that seemingly ran on a campaign for the last 4 years (& 40 days) crafted to increase their vote count in ridings that they've already won have dug a hole that Western voters are now sitting in. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have alienated the West. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

Time to admit, for instance, that climate change is real (not a party position, but one anecdotally espoused by the CPC). Time to admit that a Conservative-originated carbon-tax might be an okay idea. Time to admit that Trudeau might be a bad PM, but not a traitor, nor a criminal, nor whatever denigrating term they're using this week.

If these results continue for Conservatives, they'll once again be shut out of government for a decade. Maybe it's time to rethink what they've done since 2011?

My friends who live in Western Canada say it’s the East who have alienated the west over and over again not the other way around . Which is why they hate the Liberals a lot .


They think the Tories are currently already too pro Quebec and pro East in general

The West keeps getting goodies and got the government to buy them a 5 billions pipeline. They have a full belly and keep whining for even more.

They are aliened because they keep whining and asking for more and nobody wants to have anything to do with the West.

Trudeau literally has given everything to Quebec, even on immigration he completely caved to Quebec.

On immigration? Trudeau merely followed the Gagnon-Tremblay--Mcdougall Agreement signed under Mulroney about immigration in Quebec.

What else did he gave to Quebec? He gave 0 to lumber industry (unlike the billions he gave to oil industry), he gave all the boat construction contracts to Nova Scotia (while Harper splitted the East Coast ones between Quebec and NS).

[MaxQue]

Bloc got a swing towards them in 77 of the 78 Quebec ridings.

And -5.5 in Laurier--Ste-Marie.

[MaxQue]

Bloc got a swing towards them in 77 of the 78 Quebec ridings.

And -5.5 in Laurier--Ste-Marie.

Did you notice any major trends in the various Quebec regions?

Big swings to Bloc in rural areas and most of 450, much more faded in cities (Sherbrooke, Montreal, Gatineau...).

[MaxQue]

Still bro, dozens of seats.

Can you give us a list?

West Nova, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Lévis-Lotbinière, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Louis-Saint-Laurent, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Right wing parties only got ~43% and won the seat

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Richmond-Arthabaska, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Barrie-Innisfil, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Brantford-Brant, Right wing parties only got ~43% and won the seat

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Carleton, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Dufferin-Caledon, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Durham, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Essex, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Flamborough-Glanbrook, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Kenora, Right wing parties only got ~36% and won the seat

Niagara Falls, Right wing parties only got ~37% and won the seat

Niagara West, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Northumberland-Peterborough South, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Oshawa, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Parry Sound-Muskoka, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Perth-Wellington, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Simcoe-Grey, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Simcoe North, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Wellington-Halton Hills, Right wing parties got 49.88% of the vote and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Kildonan-St. Paul, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Edmonton Centre, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Cloverdale-Langley City, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Kelowna-Lake Country, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Kootenay-Columbia, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Langley-Aldergrove, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Port Moody-Coquitlam, Right wing parties only got ~33% and won the seat

South Surrey-White Rock, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Steveston-Richmond East, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Expecting tactical voting to take seats where the right is in the high 40's is silly. Non-Tory voters aren't some monolithic anti-conservative bloc. Some Liberals and even NDPers prefer the Tories to the other progressive parties. Some NDPers like Hatman think the Liberals are just as bad as the Tories and refuse to give them their vote. And that's before we even start on Quebec (lol at the idea of a hardcore seperatist voting for a Trudeau instead of the Bloc)

I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

Please stop confusing the center and the left.

[MaxQue]

Yes, I think the question of whether Singh is a long-term success is ultimately probably at least as much about whether he can fix its finances as it is about how he navigates a hung parliament.

Wouldn't it be best for Singh to form an official coalition government with Trudeau? I know this is not as common as in countries like Germany or Italy, but the UK also had a coalition government from 2010 to 2015. I think the Liberal Party and NDP could get some stuff done.

Why would either party even want a coalition?

Stability to govern, influence/cabinet posts for the NDP. I think minority governments in a parlamentary system are not the best option.

The point is moot anyways, as Trudeau said he will enter no coalition.

[MaxQue]

At the end of the day, what a race. I think it has to be seen as a repudiation of Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives, though. He claimed he's put Trudeau "on notice," but that's what my 5th Grade teacher Mrs. Fox did when she wrote names on the whiteboard. Scheer isn't a teacher, & Trudeau isn't a 5th-grader.

As it stands, the Conservatives have received around 6.1 million votes. That's about 500,000 more votes than they received in 2015, & this was the election where it came out that the PM wore blackface more times than he could remember.

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Despite what the CBC was intimating last night, we know this: Doug Ford is a disaster for the province & the Conservatives. Conservative supporters have trumped Ford up as some messiah, despite every indication that fatigue with Liberals granted him a majority, & we have yet more proof in Toronto last night that Ford is an albatross around the Conservative neck. Maybe somebody on the right will admit he was a bad choice? Maybe, somewhere, a cadre of social conservatives are understanding the depth of their mistake in supporting him?

We know this: the anti-carbon tax crusade was a disastrous position to take, let alone clutch to your chest like a pearl necklace. The Greens received 1.1 million votes in this election. They got 600,000 in 2015, & turnout dropped this time around. Right now, we can see that the Canadian electorate is changing. I think in 5 years' time, we'll be able to say that the Canadian electorate has changed.

All of this to say that as we hear whining about Western alienation & separation in the weeks to come, it's important to remember that a party that seemingly ran on a campaign for the last 4 years (& 40 days) crafted to increase their vote count in ridings that they've already won have dug a hole that Western voters are now sitting in. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have alienated the West. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

Time to admit, for instance, that climate change is real (not a party position, but one anecdotally espoused by the CPC). Time to admit that a Conservative-originated carbon-tax might be an okay idea. Time to admit that Trudeau might be a bad PM, but not a traitor, nor a criminal, nor whatever denigrating term they're using this week.

If these results continue for Conservatives, they'll once again be shut out of government for a decade. Maybe it's time to rethink what they've done since 2011?

My friends who live in Western Canada say it’s the East who have alienated the west over and over again not the other way around . Which is why they hate the Liberals a lot .


They think the Tories are currently already too pro Quebec and pro East in general

The West keeps getting goodies and got the government to buy them a 5 billions pipeline. They have a full belly and keep whining for even more.

They are aliened because they keep whining and asking for more and nobody wants to have anything to do with the West.

Quebec gets way more then the West does

1. The equalisation formula is there since decades, Trudeau cannot be blamed.
2. Alberta still has a better economy than Quebec. The only reason why it has a deficit is because of their very low tax rates (perequation assumes average tax rates). Same reason why Quebec has big surplus (tax rates are quite higher than the average).

[MaxQue]

1. The equalisation formula is there since decades, Trudeau cannot be blamed.

I mean, a Trudeau can be. Just not this one.

The formula was actually amended under Harper to include offshore oil in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia.

[MaxQue]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Totally wrong, there is huge overlap between QS voters and NDP voters. QS voters don't vote Bloc.

[MaxQue]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Totally wrong, there is huge overlap between QS voters and NDP voters. QS voters don't vote Bloc.

Yes, and? I wasn't implying QS voters picked the Bloc, only their political views on that issue align with said position on the separatist-federalist scale. The QS/NDP alignment does get a little weird at times like when the NDP had a separatist nominated this cycle form the QS, despite the official party mantra. I'm the guy who mapped quebec 2018 by poll, I know where the QS is strong and how their strength in Sherbrooke/Plateau/etc correlates with the NDP and visa versa.

QS is left-wing first, independentist second.

The NDP recognizes Quebec is able to leave after a 50%+1 referendum. If you are a pro-independence left-winger, it makes sense to say that you want Quebec to be a country, but that will be decided in Quebec City, not Ottawa and that Canada should be improved in the mean time.

[MaxQue]

Re-count coming in Port Moody-Coquitlam

https://www.tricitynews.com/news/ndp-zarrillo-granted-vote-recount-in-port-moody-coquitlam-1.23991933?fbclid=IwAR1smWbLJAoYG71-qoPjQBnyo_ndl2Vdf_V61NApmdKgJxXISc1VOF9oZ6k

This is an NDP vs CPC seat, the CPC won by 153 votes but there seem to be some irregularities here.

There is 3 recounts in fact, Bloc also asked for recounts in Québec (Liberal hold by 325 votes) and Hochelaga (Liberal gain by 328 votes).

[MaxQue]

Elizabeth May resigns as Green leader, but will stay as parliamentary leader for the moment.

New leader elected on October 4, 2020. Interim leader is Jo-Ann Roberts, former journalist and defeated candidate in Halifax.

[MaxQue]

Does anyone know what the tipping point seat was this election?

The seat who would put the Liberals at 170 is Beauport-Limoilou (eastern Québec City suburbs) which was actually a Bloc gain over Conservatives, with Liberals in 3rd (Bloc 30, Con 26, Lib 26), with 4.2% needed

The tipping point for the largest party (making Con 142, Lab 141) is Newmarket-Aurora (northern Toronto suburbs). Lib 43, Con 38, 5.3% neededé Ironically, it was already the tipping point for Liberals going under 170 last time.

The seat putting Conservatives at 170 is Hamilton Mountain (southern Hamilton). It's actually quite unlikely, it's an NDP stronghold where the last Conservative win was in 1979 and where Conservatives are 3rd. NDP 36, Lib 30, Con 25, 10.7% needed.