Canadian Election 2019

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wow, the left wing blew dozens of seats by splitting the vote, fdck them.

Actually, Liberal vote efficiency was incredible. They won many more ridings than they lost thwnks to anti-Conservative strategic voting.

Still bro, dozens of seats.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not much "progressive left" about the BQ campaign from where I'm sitting tbh.

[jaichind]

Canada is so woke they made Trudeau a minority so his blackface is acceptable.

If Obama can endorse his fellow Black Trudeau why did Warren not endorse her fellow Native American/First Nation JWR?

[ottermax]

I wanted to write some thoughts on the NDP.

Where does the party go from here? Would Mulcair or Boulerice have performed better or was Quebec already lost?

BC - The NDP underperformed and should have gained a seat or two in Metro Vancouver or Surrey... very disappointing.

Alberta and Saskatchewan - Losing 3 seats is terrible, but maybe that's simply a Scheer effect?

Manitoba and North - the only bright spots, but these felt like reversions to the mean.

Ontario - I think this is the biggest disappointment. I was hoping Singh could boost NDP opportunities in the 905 and Toronto by reaching out to minority communities and getting the urban left excited... but it seems like the psychology of strategic voting is too powerful in this area unless people expect the Liberals to collapse like in 2011.

Quebec - Everyone expected losses here, but the vote share was worse than expected and the NDP has been reduced to the one area they have more of a natural base.

Atlantic Canada - NDP gained one seat... remember when they typically had a few? Another mediocre performance.

The biggest problem I see for the NDP is there is no clear strategy forward. A Quebec focused party will never overtake the Bloc + a Liberal leader from Quebec. Ontario did not have a breakthrough. Atlantic Canada seems more promising but the party infrastructure is very weak... look at New Brunswick. The NDP needs to build a more reliable base of voters on a regional basis if electoral reform cannot happen... but what would that look like?

[vileplume]

Seat flips:

Con gain from Lib (21):
-West Nova (NS)
-Fundy Royal (NB)
-New Brunswick Southwest (NB)
-Tobique-Mactaquac (NB)
-Chicoutimi-Le Fjord (QC)
-Hastings-Lennox and Addington (ON)
-Northumberland-Peterborough South (ON)
-Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill (ON)*
-Kenora (ON)
-Kildonan-St. Paul (MB)
-Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley (MB)*
-Regina-Wascana (SK)
-Calgary Centre (AB)
-Calgary Skyview (AB)
-Edmonton Mill Woods (AB)
-Edmonton Centre (AB)
-Kelowna-Lake Country (BC)
-Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon (BC)
-Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge (BC)
-Cloverdale-Langley City (BC)
-Steveston-Richmond East (BC)

Bloc gain from NDP (11):
-Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques*
-Jonquière
-Berthier-Maskinongé
-Trois-Rivières
-Drummond
-Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
-Beloeil-Chambly
-Longueuil-Saint-Hubert
-Salaberry-Suroît
-Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou*
-Abitibi-Témiscamingue

Bloc gain from Lib (8 ):
-Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia*
-Laurentides-Labelle
-Shefford
-Saint-Jean
-La Prarie
-Montarville
-Thérèse-De Blainville
-Rivière-des-Mille-Îles

Con gain from NDP (6):
-Essex (ON)
-Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River (SK)*
-Saskatoon West (SK)
-Regina-Lewvan (SK)
-Kootenay-Columbia (BC)
-Port Moody-Coquitlam (BC)

Lib gain from NDP (5):
-Sherbrooke (QC)
-Hochelaga (QC)
-Laurier-Sainte-Marie (QC)
-Outremont (QC)
-Windsor-Tecumseh (ON)

Bloc gain from Con (3):
-Lac-Saint-Jean
-Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix *
-Beauport—Limoilou

NDP gain from Lib (3):
-St. John's East (NL)
-Winnipeg Centre (MB)
-Nunavut (NU)

Lib gain from Con (2):
-Milton (ON)
-Kitchener-Conestoga (ON-lead)

Green gain from Lib (1):
-Fredricton (NB)

Green gain from NDP (1):
-Nanaimo-Ladysmith (BC)

Ind gain from Lib (1):
-Vancouver Granville (BC)

(*Seriously some of these names could do with being shortened)

[Continential]

Why did Singh almost lose in Bunaby-South?

[super6646]

Why did Singh almost lose in Bunaby-South?

Because he’s a garbage candidate.

[Continential]

Why did Singh almost lose in Bunaby-South?

Because he’s a garbage candidate.

Also, will he be replaced as leader, and with who if he is replaced?

[jaichind]

I wanted to write some thoughts on the NDP.

Where does the party go from here? Would Mulcair or Boulerice have performed better or was Quebec already lost?

BC - The NDP underperformed and should have gained a seat or two in Metro Vancouver or Surrey... very disappointing.

Alberta and Saskatchewan - Losing 3 seats is terrible, but maybe that's simply a Scheer effect?

Manitoba and North - the only bright spots, but these felt like reversions to the mean.

Ontario - I think this is the biggest disappointment. I was hoping Singh could boost NDP opportunities in the 905 and Toronto by reaching out to minority communities and getting the urban left excited... but it seems like the psychology of strategic voting is too powerful in this area unless people expect the Liberals to collapse like in 2011.

Quebec - Everyone expected losses here, but the vote share was worse than expected and the NDP has been reduced to the one area they have more of a natural base.

Atlantic Canada - NDP gained one seat... remember when they typically had a few? Another mediocre performance.

The biggest problem I see for the NDP is there is no clear strategy forward. A Quebec focused party will never overtake the Bloc + a Liberal leader from Quebec. Ontario did not have a breakthrough. Atlantic Canada seems more promising but the party infrastructure is very weak... look at New Brunswick. The NDP needs to build a more reliable base of voters on a regional basis if electoral reform cannot happen... but what would that look like?

I keep on reading how it was Singh that sunk NDP in Quebec.  But it seems to me that NDP already lost most of its ground in Quebec before Singh took over.  is that right ?

[Oryxslayer]

I wanted to write some thoughts on the NDP.

Where does the party go from here? Would Mulcair or Boulerice have performed better or was Quebec already lost?

BC - The NDP underperformed and should have gained a seat or two in Metro Vancouver or Surrey... very disappointing.

Alberta and Saskatchewan - Losing 3 seats is terrible, but maybe that's simply a Scheer effect?

Manitoba and North - the only bright spots, but these felt like reversions to the mean.

Ontario - I think this is the biggest disappointment. I was hoping Singh could boost NDP opportunities in the 905 and Toronto by reaching out to minority communities and getting the urban left excited... but it seems like the psychology of strategic voting is too powerful in this area unless people expect the Liberals to collapse like in 2011.

Quebec - Everyone expected losses here, but the vote share was worse than expected and the NDP has been reduced to the one area they have more of a natural base.

Atlantic Canada - NDP gained one seat... remember when they typically had a few? Another mediocre performance.

The biggest problem I see for the NDP is there is no clear strategy forward. A Quebec focused party will never overtake the Bloc + a Liberal leader from Quebec. Ontario did not have a breakthrough. Atlantic Canada seems more promising but the party infrastructure is very weak... look at New Brunswick. The NDP needs to build a more reliable base of voters on a regional basis if electoral reform cannot happen... but what would that look like?

I keep on reading how it was Singh that sunk NDP in Quebec.  But it seems to me that NDP already lost most of its ground in Quebec before Singh took over.  is that right ?

Yes there was very little the NDP could have done to hold Quebec, but they still could have won more seats here  in places like Sherbrooke and Montreal.  The thing was that even if we accept the Quebec losses, which many had, Singh still looked to be on track to make gains in the rest of Quebec. Some  predicted the best result for the NDP outside  of Quebec ever. That didn't come to pass - the NDP lost ground everywhere, their 3 gains of the night were all because of candidates rather then the NDP brand, and Singh ended up in a tight race in Burnaby South. Like if Singh can't hold/gain the Coquitlam region (which neighbors his seat) where the oil pipelines would terminate, then something is wrong.

[Epaminondas]

Still bro, dozens of seats.

Can you give us a list?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Why did Singh almost lose in Bunaby-South?

He's from Ontario, not BC; the riding is just short of 40% Chinese and the Conservative candidate was of Chinese heritage; the non-NDP vote was less evenly split than in the by-election.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

There are 2 seats left to be called - Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, where 1 poll is outstanding from who-knows-where, and Kitchener-Conestoga, where 6 polls are outstanding plus some special votes, from New Hamburg. Liberals lead both - it’s a race with the Bloc in Gaspesie--Les-Iles-de-la-Madeleine and a race with the Conservatives in Kitchener-Conestoga.

Does anyone know how New Hamburg voted in 2015? Naturally, all the images from our 2015 thread have been eaten, and the two interactive maps I found either aren’t working (election-atlas.ca) or don’t have popups with results.

election-atlas.ca is working for me in firefox.

[jaichind]

Other than the AL and SK CPC vote share blowout, another reason for CPC getting less seats with a greater vote share are clear signs of anti-CPC tactical voting.  In BC CPC vote share lead over LPC is around 8% (34% vs 26.1%) but only got around 1.5 times more seats than LPC (17 vs 11). But in ON the LPC vote share lead over CPC is also around 8% (41.4% vs 33.2%) but LPC won more than twice more seats than CPC (79 vs 36).  Clear signs of anti-CPC tactical voting.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Should I not be surprised the NDP picked up Nunavut? Seemed a bit unexpected.

Plenty of reason there to be dissatisfied with the status quo and they had a strong young candidate in Mumilaaq Qaqqaq
https://aptnnews.ca/2019/09/21/nunavuts-ndp-candidate-in-federal-election-is-25-just-like-the-inuit-who-founded-the-territory/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What *I* find depressing is how the Cons just keep getting more stratospheric in the West, i.e. all the 75%+ and even 80%+  mandates with opposition all in single digits--and really, that should be depressing to *them*, too, in a dumbed-down "why bother having elections?" way...

Between that and a few other things, I'm starting to think that for the health of the Canadian polity (if not necessarily the party) it would be a good idea for the NDP to have a Westerner as leader for a while.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Should I not be surprised the NDP picked up Nunavut? Seemed a bit unexpected.

Plenty of reason there to be dissatisfied with the status quo and they had a strong young candidate in Mumilaaq Qaqqaq
https://aptnnews.ca/2019/09/21/nunavuts-ndp-candidate-in-federal-election-is-25-just-like-the-inuit-who-founded-the-territory/

It's an interesting shift from normal voting patterns there, but they have a lot to be cross about, so...

[DC Al Fine]

What *I* find depressing is how the Cons just keep getting more stratospheric in the West, i.e. all the 75%+ and even 80%+  mandates with opposition all in single digits--and really, that should be depressing to *them*, too, in a dumbed-down "why bother having elections?" way...

Between that and a few other things, I'm starting to think that for the health of the Canadian polity (if not necessarily the party) it would be a good idea for the NDP to have a Westerner as leader for a while.

Similarly, the Tories probably should put a non-westerner in charge at some point

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Deleted an off-topic exchange. Just stay on the matter, please.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Still bro, dozens of seats.

Can you give us a list?

West Nova, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Lévis-Lotbinière, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Louis-Saint-Laurent, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Right wing parties only got ~43% and won the seat

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Richmond-Arthabaska, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Barrie-Innisfil, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Brantford-Brant, Right wing parties only got ~43% and won the seat

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Carleton, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Dufferin-Caledon, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Durham, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Essex, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Flamborough-Glanbrook, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Kenora, Right wing parties only got ~36% and won the seat

Niagara Falls, Right wing parties only got ~37% and won the seat

Niagara West, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Northumberland-Peterborough South, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Oshawa, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Parry Sound-Muskoka, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Perth-Wellington, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Simcoe-Grey, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Simcoe North, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Wellington-Halton Hills, Right wing parties got 49.88% of the vote and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Kildonan-St. Paul, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Edmonton Centre, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Cloverdale-Langley City, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Right wing parties got ~46% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Kelowna-Lake Country, Right wing parties got ~48% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Kootenay-Columbia, Right wing parties got ~47% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Langley-Aldergrove, Right wing parties got ~49% and won the seat (would have been a tossup otherwise)

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, Right wing parties only got ~45% and won the seat

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Port Moody-Coquitlam, Right wing parties only got ~33% and won the seat

South Surrey-White Rock, Right wing parties only got ~44% and won the seat

Steveston-Richmond East, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

[brucejoel99]

At the end of the day, what a race. I think it has to be seen as a repudiation of Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives, though. He claimed he's put Trudeau "on notice," but that's what my 5th Grade teacher Mrs. Fox did when she wrote names on the whiteboard. Scheer isn't a teacher, & Trudeau isn't a 5th-grader.

As it stands, the Conservatives have received around 6.1 million votes. That's about 500,000 more votes than they received in 2015, & this was the election where it came out that the PM wore blackface more times than he could remember.

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Despite what the CBC was intimating last night, we know this: Doug Ford is a disaster for the province & the Conservatives. Conservative supporters have trumped Ford up as some messiah, despite every indication that fatigue with Liberals granted him a majority, & we have yet more proof in Toronto last night that Ford is an albatross around the Conservative neck. Maybe somebody on the right will admit he was a bad choice? Maybe, somewhere, a cadre of social conservatives are understanding the depth of their mistake in supporting him?

We know this: the anti-carbon tax crusade was a disastrous position to take, let alone clutch to your chest like a pearl necklace. The Greens received 1.1 million votes in this election. They got 600,000 in 2015, & turnout dropped this time around. Right now, we can see that the Canadian electorate is changing. I think in 5 years' time, we'll be able to say that the Canadian electorate has changed.

All of this to say that as we hear whining about Western alienation & separation in the weeks to come, it's important to remember that a party that seemingly ran on a campaign for the last 4 years (& 40 days) crafted to increase their vote count in ridings that they've already won have dug a hole that Western voters are now sitting in. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have alienated the West. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

Time to admit, for instance, that climate change is real (not a party position, but one anecdotally espoused by the CPC). Time to admit that a Conservative-originated carbon-tax might be an okay idea. Time to admit that Trudeau might be a bad PM, but not a traitor, nor a criminal, nor whatever denigrating term they're using this week.

If these results continue for Conservatives, they'll once again be shut out of government for a decade. Maybe it's time to rethink what they've done since 2011?

[Oryxslayer]

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Ehh...its already been said that everyone lost last night who wasn't the Bloc. Hoisting that blame solely upon one party is just spin. The Libs won in spite of not thanks to Trudeau, and if it wasn't for Scheer or Ford they may have gone down in flames. Scheer failed to expand the Blue vote beyond it's normal electorate. The NDP's balance sheet is deep in the red. The Greens failed to capitalize on the climate moment.

However, I do need to note that Scheer's conservatives did have a climate plan, you just had to read between the lines. The unfortunate truth is that while some climate change hurts most of the planet, it helps Canada on a purely transactional basis and especially helps the Tory west. A hotter planet will open up lots of farmland in the Plains provinces, uncover new resource deposits for extraction, and open up the Northwest passage for actual use. Of course, getting some climate change without the whole package of global unmaking is rather hard to achieve, and most voters don't think on a  transactional basis.

[OSR stands with Israel]

At the end of the day, what a race. I think it has to be seen as a repudiation of Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives, though. He claimed he's put Trudeau "on notice," but that's what my 5th Grade teacher Mrs. Fox did when she wrote names on the whiteboard. Scheer isn't a teacher, & Trudeau isn't a 5th-grader.

As it stands, the Conservatives have received around 6.1 million votes. That's about 500,000 more votes than they received in 2015, & this was the election where it came out that the PM wore blackface more times than he could remember.

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Despite what the CBC was intimating last night, we know this: Doug Ford is a disaster for the province & the Conservatives. Conservative supporters have trumped Ford up as some messiah, despite every indication that fatigue with Liberals granted him a majority, & we have yet more proof in Toronto last night that Ford is an albatross around the Conservative neck. Maybe somebody on the right will admit he was a bad choice? Maybe, somewhere, a cadre of social conservatives are understanding the depth of their mistake in supporting him?

We know this: the anti-carbon tax crusade was a disastrous position to take, let alone clutch to your chest like a pearl necklace. The Greens received 1.1 million votes in this election. They got 600,000 in 2015, & turnout dropped this time around. Right now, we can see that the Canadian electorate is changing. I think in 5 years' time, we'll be able to say that the Canadian electorate has changed.

All of this to say that as we hear whining about Western alienation & separation in the weeks to come, it's important to remember that a party that seemingly ran on a campaign for the last 4 years (& 40 days) crafted to increase their vote count in ridings that they've already won have dug a hole that Western voters are now sitting in. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have alienated the West. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

Time to admit, for instance, that climate change is real (not a party position, but one anecdotally espoused by the CPC). Time to admit that a Conservative-originated carbon-tax might be an okay idea. Time to admit that Trudeau might be a bad PM, but not a traitor, nor a criminal, nor whatever denigrating term they're using this week.

If these results continue for Conservatives, they'll once again be shut out of government for a decade. Maybe it's time to rethink what they've done since 2011?

My friends who live in Western Canada say it’s the East who have alienated the west over and over again not the other way around . Which is why they hate the Liberals a lot .


They think the Tories are currently already too pro Quebec and pro East in general

[VPH]

My question is whether any of the losing Tory leadership contenders (or O'Leary) would have done better than Scheer. I'm inclined to think that Lisa Raitt wouldn't have alienated as any moderates as Scheer did and probably would have won. Same goes for somebody like Peter MacKay, who of course did not run. Erin O'Toole and some of the others, maybe.

O'Leary or Bernier would have been real wildcards. I don't think Bernier would have stood much of a chance at victory as Tory leader.

[thumb21]

This result reminds me of the 2005 GE here (a pretty depressing and uninspired affair too) but if anything more so.

Gutted at Ruth Ellen losing, she could have been the next NDP leader.

That was exaclty what I was thinking. An unpopular incumbent centre left Prime Minister facing an unpopular Conservative opposition, the result ends up very close in terms of the popular vote, with both parties in the low-mid 30s and the prime minister saved by efficient vote distribution. The Conservatives make some gains in seat numbers but their popular vote gains are quite mediocre, with their gains mainly being a result of Liberal/Labour losses to third parties.