USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[bagelman]

We better get that goddamned 6th District this time.

Rhode Island ain't even keeping 2 lol _{I know you're from Oregon but your avatar is a filthy liar.}

Biden To Make Historic Census Director Pick With Latino Statistician Rob Santos

In a historic move, President Biden is naming Robert Santos, one of the country's leading statisticians and the American Statistical Association's president, as his intended nominee to head the U.S. Census Bureau.

If confirmed by the Senate, Santos, who is Latino, would be the first permanent director of color for the federal government's largest statistical agency, which is in charge of major surveys and the once-a-decade head count used for distributing political representation and funding around the United States.

The White House announced Santos as Biden's intended nominee in a statement released on Tuesday. Depending on the timing of a confirmation, Santos could finish the term left open by former Director Steven Dillingham that is ending this year. Dillingham was the Trump-appointed director who quit in January after whistleblowers filed complaints about Dillingham's role in trying to rush out an incomplete data report on noncitizens. Santos could be reappointed after the end of a first term, according to federal law.

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/13/986612530/biden-to-make-historic-census-director-pick-with-latinx-statistician-rob-santos

So tedious that they always make it about race. More relevant is that he's bound to be better than any Trump appointee.

[bagelman]

I'm pretty confident that it's going to be the 30th. Always gotta drag their feet for no particular reason.

[bagelman]

I'm pretty confident that it's going to be the 30th. Always gotta drag their feet for no particular reason.

Maybe. We don't have any official date or time yet from Census, despite the Twitter rumors.

Unless you think it could be later than April 30th, this is a rather meaningless comment. Of course I don't know that it's on the 30th, but that's what my gut feeling has been for a while now ever since they gave that as their deadline. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's anytime earlier.

[bagelman]

I honestly doubt with the population shift republicans can draw a consistent two safe seats, they might have to sacrifice one to the dems to save another. I’m really curious where the new seats gained go regardless

What state are you referring to?

[bagelman]

I'm pretty confident that it's going to be the 30th. Always gotta drag their feet for no particular reason.

Glad to be wrong. Do we know when the more specific populations, like for counties and later precincts, are coming out?

[bagelman]

I'm pretty confident that it's going to be the 30th. Always gotta drag their feet for no particular reason.

Glad to be wrong. Do we know when the more specific populations, like for counties and later precincts, are coming out?

Mid-August in a non-user-friendly format, late-September in a user-friendly format.

For larger units like counties, this seems like an unreasonably long wait to me.

[bagelman]

Something I realized is that the July 1, 2020 estimate for Austin's population puts it at 995,484.

Considering the city's rapid growth, and considering it's been almost a year since that estimate, I think it's safe to say that Austin has now surpassed 1 million people in its city limits, making its northern Texas neighbor Fort Worth the largest city in the United States to have less than 1 million people (which it should surpass by 2025). That now means that 11 cities in the USA now have 1 million people or more.

By the 2030 census, besides Austin and Fort Worth, I would expect the following cities to surpass 1 million people:

Jacksonville, Florida
Columbus, Ohio
Charlotte, North Carolina

This would make 15 cities with a population of 1 million or more, and based on growth trends, Seattle would likely become the largest city in the country to have less than 1 million people, as it (along with possibly Denver as well) would likely surpass Indianapolis and San Francisco in population.

Also to add-on, Texas is now the state with the most cities with 1 million people or greater, with 4 cities (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin) compared to California with only 3 (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose).

Is Columbus' growth that rapid? I would've thought most of the growth would be outside the city limits.

Columbus has had a very aggressive annexation policy. In Ohio, cities can annex with agreement of landowners. Columbus makes deals with landowners to provide water and sewage in exchange for being annexed. If you are developing a tract of land for a shopping center, or an office park, or warehouses, or apartments or single-family residences, you are going to need reliable infrastructure - water, sewage, and roads. The developer will be expected to put in the sewer and water lines and internal roads, but they need to connect to trunk lines. The roads will need to connect to major arterials, so the developer might also pay for stop lights and intersection expansion. But all of this will benefit the developer since people will be able to get to the shopping center or office park or out of the residence. So Columbus has lots of develop-able land.

Ohio also has adopted restrictions on creation of new cities. It used to be easier to incorporate residential areas which would incorporate and block expansion of Cleveland and Cincinnati. There are now minimum population requirements at least around major cities. While there has been some effort to contain Columbus it hasn't been wholly successful.

This shows the Columbus city limits. Incorporated cities, including Columbus are shown with a gray tint. Be sure to zoom in.

Columbus zoning map

Is this why the municipal borders within Franklin County are so hideous?

[bagelman]

Problem IMO is the baby bump we had in the early 1990s, my generation, is in the prime of childbearing age now. In 2030 we'll be arriving in our 40s. There are fewer late 90s babies than early 90s.

[bagelman]

Biggest losing county is Alexander IL, home of the ruins of Cairo IL. With the demolition of the housing projects the city, declining since around WWII or even before, plunged by 39% which is the biggest percentage loss ever, from 2831 to 1733. The county dropped from 8238 to 5240, a decrease of 36%. I found a small village, Thebes, in the county that lost more than half its population, including almost all the black people.

The dangerous ghetto of East St. Louis IL has declined from 27k to 18.5k, a decline of over 30%.

I wonder if stimmys helped get people out of the ghetto before the census canvassing in the late summer and fall. Of course all of downstate IL is declining and is the main reason the state as a whole lost people even as Chicago was doing OK.

[bagelman]

I'm kind of gutted that Camden still lost population over 2010-20. Given its site and situation it deserves better than just being another East St Louis. 

At least the decline of that city is much slower. Camden is also now majority Hispanic.