USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[bagelman]

Problem IMO is the baby bump we had in the early 1990s, my generation, is in the prime of childbearing age now. In 2030 we'll be arriving in our 40s. There are fewer late 90s babies than early 90s.

[cinyc]

It's happening - a few days early:

https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1423351861160161291

[nclib]

Wow - the second most recent responder to that tweet, lives in my precinct.

[cinyc]

Let's talk a little bit about the granular census data which will be released in 24 hours.

I'm rather confident that many retiree-heavy counties in North and Central Florida (such as Sumter, Charlotte, Hernando, and Manatee) are highly likely to witness an underperformance, due to lower than expected domestic migration from the Northeast and Midwest. This would not only jive well with the overperformances seen in the Northeast and Midwest, but also the large underperformance in Arizona and the Carolinas (which have seen a much more lopsided inflow from domestic migrants (as opposed to international migrants) than Florida).

On the other hand, another thing that you may want to watch out for would be higher than expected international migration (perhaps in Miami-Dade, Broward, Osceola, Brooklyn, Queens, Jersey City). This not only could explain why New Jersey and New York in particular, which see much, much higher international migration than domestic migration, overperformed by such a large amount, but also could explain what kept Texas, Georgia, Virginia, and Washington state at relatively respectable levels (where they didn't see much underperformance or overperformance).

Also, as "danny" said earlier in the thread, we could also expect many Hasidic enclaves, such as Lakewood, Kiryas Joel, Ramapo, and Borough Park to witness large overperformances due to a higher than expected birth rate. He brings up several good points, such as a disproportionate decrease in population growth rates of these regions, while school enrollment has failed to show such a slowdown.

Another thing to look for (along the same lines) might be overperformances in Amish-heavy counties such as Holmes County, OH; Adams County, IN; LaGrange County, IN. The Census Bureau projects very unspectacular birth rates for all these counties, which is quite strange.

Just my two cents but this is what I'll be watching out for. What are all of your theories?

My theory is that Census botched the deduplication efforts in the Northeast due to COVID, and we're going to see increases both in NYC and the exurban leisure-ish destinations many well-heeled New Yorkers moved to during the pandemic.

I don't buy the Hispanic undercount theory, given that some of the most Hispanic states were also overcounted, compared to estimates.

But only tomorrow's data will tell.

[cinyc]

Census' press conference is on at 1PM today.

YouTube link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=us6Qzzps5l4

[ProgressiveModerate]

My take is there will be a strong correlation with how places swung in the 2020 election and where under/over performances occurred.

[Stuart98]

We do a little trolling

https://twitter.com/davesredist/status/1425844967491002369?s=19

[cinyc]

FOR REFERENCE, Here are the Census Bureau's projections on the 20 most populated counties' populations in the country on April 01, 2020:

9,960,091 - Los Angeles County, CA
5,117,494 - Cook County, IL
4,731,040 - Harris County, TX
4,557,495 - Maricopa County, AZ
3,331,938 - San Diego County, CA
3,167,850 - Orange County, CA
2,708,374 - Miami-Dade County, FL
2,635,817 - Dallas County, TX
2,544,751 - Kings County, NY
2,483,316 - Riverside County, CA
2,305,998 - Clark County, NV
2,268,183 - King County, WA
2,232,813 - Queens County, NY
2,186,223 - San Bernardino County, CA
2,117,861 - Tarrant County, TX
2,020,762 - Bexar County, TX
1,957,451 - Broward County, FL
1,910,911 - Santa Clara County, CA
1,742,978 - Wayne County, MI
1,663,837 - Alameda County, CA

April 1 or July 1?

[RI]

F**k this differential privacy propaganda on their livestream.

[ProgressiveModerate]

And now their giving a cheesy overview of redistricting even though I guarentee you everyone watching the livestream knows what it is.

[Ebsy]

The fact that they can't to release it in universally accessible spreadsheets is ridiculous. The Keystone Census Cops never cease to confound.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol I love how the guy makes it sound like our country is doomed because of the slowing growth in recent decades

[ProgressiveModerate]

Their definition for "metro areas" are way too lenient.

[RI]

Grabbed this screenshot:

Image Link

[Zaybay]

Trend appears to be urban area overperformance and rural area underperformance. The difference between the estimates for NYC (decline in population) and the census for NYC (gain of around 700K) is insane.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems like Hispanic population nationally was pretty spot on, so if there was an undercount in some areas, it wasn't universal.

Also, ye NYC was insane, and it also seems like Pheonix did well and isn't the reason AZ underperformed.

[Stuart98]

Trump's kneecapping of the census bureau backfired then; Republicans did not want urban overperformance/rural underperformance.

[ProgressiveModerate]

EVERY FLORIDA COUNTY!

270,788    278,468    Alachua County
29,497    28,259    Baker County
171,962    175,216    Bay County
28,532    28,303    Bradford County
606,610    606,612    Brevard County
1,957,451    1,944,375    Broward County
14,093    13,648    Calhoun County
193,457    186,847    Charlotte County
152,300    153,843    Citrus County
221,085    218,245    Clay County
391,219    375,752    Collier County
72,433    69,698    Columbia County
38,346    33,976    DeSoto County
17,015    16,759    Dixie County
965,019    995,567    Duval County
321,622    321,905    Escambia County
117,713    115,378    Flagler County
12,179    12,451    Franklin County
45,375    43,826    Gadsden County
18,807    17,864    Gilchrist County
14,127    12,126    Glades County
13,525    14,192    Gulf County
14,508    14,004    Hamilton County
26,818    25,327    Hardee County
42,628    39,619    Hendry County
197,673    194,515    Hernando County
106,453    101,235    Highlands County
1,492,605    1,459,762    Hillsborough County
19,611    19,653    Holmes County
161,827    159,788    Indian River County
46,128    47,319    Jackson County
14,478    14,510    Jefferson County
8,458    8,226    Lafayette County
373,366    383,956    Lake County
786,168    760,822    Lee County
295,064    292,198    Leon County
42,066    42,915    Levy County
8,358    7,974    Liberty County
18,680    17,968    Madison County
409,170    399,710    Manatee County
371,644    375,908    Marion County
161,870    158,431    Martin County
2,708,374    2,701,767    Miami-Dade County
73,899    82,874    Monroe County
90,484    90,352    Nassau County
212,470    211,668    Okaloosa County
42,258    39,644    Okeechobee County
1,402,152    1,429,908    Orange County
382,544    388,656    Osceola County
1,505,163    1,492,191    Palm Beach County
566,339    561,891    Pasco County
976,445    959,107    Pinellas County
739,683    725,046    Polk County
74,689    73,321    Putnam County
188,007    188,000    Santa Rosa County
441,362    434,006    Sarasota County
473,579    470,856    Seminole County
275,322    273,425    St. Johns County
334,918    329,226    St. Lucie County
137,714    129,752    Sumter County
44,744    43,474    Suwannee County
21,584    21,796    Taylor County
15,190    16,147    Union County
559,649    553,543    Volusia County
34,149    33,764    Wakulla County
76,021    75,305    Walton County
25,861    25,318    Washington County


FIRST ROW IS ORIGINAL PROJECTION
SECOND ROW IS FINAL RESULT
THIRD ROW IS COUNTY NAME

Thanks for compiling this. There seems to be an error in counties that start with the letter "S" though.

Most notably has to be Duval county though which had a decent overperformance. It's prolly stioll gonna be cracked but increases the chances a bit of FL-5 surviving, especially if the black population did well, you can make a 46% black seat.

Seems like the interior peninsula slightly underperformed which is also notable.

[Oryxslayer]

Trump's kneecapping of the census bureau backfired then; Republicans did not want urban overperformance/rural underperformance.

Looks like what occurred is a case of a traditional bureaucratic deficiency rather than any targeted demographic undercount. When you get less money or have less will to execute your mandate then the most difficult tasks with the least return are going to be the first on the chopping block. In this case, it looks like it was the rural canvassers who have to drive for hours to count a few names at best.

[Zaybay]

Seems like Hispanic population nationally was pretty spot on, so if there was an undercount in some areas, it wasn't universal.

Also, ye NYC was insane, and it also seems like Pheonix did well and isn't the reason AZ underperformed.

Looking over the numbers, it looks like Phoenix underperformed by a serious metric.
Phoneix was projected to grow at a rate of around 18% over the decade. It instead grew by only 11%. Still high, but a serious underperformance.

[Ebsy]

City of St. Louis managed to stay above 300,000 despite the lying fake news Census estimates, you just love to see it!

[RI]

Interactive map: https://mtgis-portal.geo.census.gov/arcgis/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=2566121a73de463995ed2b2fd7ff6eb7

[Storebought]

Phoenix:       1321045 1445632 1608139
Philadelphia: 1517550 1526006 1603797

Phoenix, again, was massively overestimated. It is only 5000 larger than Philadelphia. It would have been hilarious if it was the fifth largest city in the US again, just like 2010 that also overestimated it.

And even Chicago grew over 2010-2020, 2.0% more than the rest of the state.

This whole census estimate thing was a nonsense.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, the numbers must be really great if even these GOP-loving hacks are saying this!
https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1425876571412471815?s=21
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1425874749188620291?s=21

[RI]

Wow, the numbers must be really great if even these GOP-loving hacks are saying this!
https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1425876571412471815?s=21
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1425874749188620291?s=21

It sounds like the extra decrease in the white share was primarily due to changes in question format which boosted the multiracial count.