The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Benjamin Frank]

This may have already been mentioned. I don't know why Gretchen Whitmer would want to leave as Governor with the Democrats in full control in the House for the Sh*t show of Washington, and she seems to feel the same. This is in regards to her running for Stabenow's Senate seat.

In a statement, Whitmer alluded to completing the entirety of her second term as governor.

"Debbie is one-of-one. As governor of this great state for the next four years, I look forward to working with her through the end of her term and beyond in however she serves our state next," Whitmer said.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2023/01/05/debbie-stabenow-will-not-seek-another-term-senate-2024/69780593007/

Given that mostly all the U.S President can get done (I appreciate Biden's successes) is in foreign policy, I'm surprised that it isn't by now mostly former military leaders who run for the Presidency.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1632398632186966017?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tbLk...

 There is only room for one candidate in the older 'establishment lane' of the Republican Party (does the pre 1980 Reagan Revolution Eisenhower/Nixon/Ford/Bush lane even exist any more?) and it seems pretty clear that both Governor Asa Hutchinson and Governor Chris Sununu are more determined to run than Hogan ever was. Not sure where Liz Cheney would fit into that.

[Benjamin Frank]

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo

MAYBE:

Scott
Sununu
Christie
Bolton
Suarez
Burgum

I'm not sure why Ramaswamy is considered a serious candidate, but former Cranston Rhode Island mayor Steve Laffey, who is also running, isn't.

[Benjamin Frank]

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo

MAYBE:

Scott
Sununu
Christie
Bolton
Suarez
Burgum

I'm not sure why Ramaswamy is considered a serious candidate, but former Cranston Rhode Island mayor Steve Laffey, who is also running, isn't.

Vivek has a ton of money hes not a billionaire but still has a net worth of 600 million and is capable of buying himself media coverage and large ad buys. Steve Laffey, on the other hand, doesn't his estimated net worth is just 1 million he can't afford to self-fund a viable national campaign.

Still, Laffey is an elected mayor who ran for the U.S Senate. On paper anyway, he's a credible candidate.

[Benjamin Frank]

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo

MAYBE:

Scott
Sununu
Christie
Bolton
Suarez
Burgum

I'm not sure why Ramaswamy is considered a serious candidate, but former Cranston Rhode Island mayor Steve Laffey, who is also running, isn't.

Vivek has a ton of money hes not a billionaire but still has a net worth of 600 million and is capable of buying himself media coverage and large ad buys. Steve Laffey, on the other hand, doesn't his estimated net worth is just 1 million he can't afford to self-fund a viable national campaign.

Still, Laffey is an elected mayor who ran for the U.S Senate. On paper anyway, he's a credible candidate.

So's Cory Stapleton.

In suicide run news, Sununu looks likely to get in:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/nh-guv-chris-sununu-sees-075927047.html

Hilarious. He'll be like Kasich at best.

Oh thanks! I didn't know about him. I'll add him on to my list.

I especially don't understand how the previous poster can put Miami Mayor Francis Suarez on his list but not Laffey or especially Stapleton.

[Benjamin Frank]

For us completists, at least when it comes to those who have held political office (Like Mark Everson in 2016.)

Floyd Petri, who formerly served as mayor of the City of Chester, registered his candidacy with the Federal Election Commission and announced his candidacy in the 2024 United States Presidential Election.

“I support the Second Amendment, and as mayor, made the City of Chester a sanctuary for the Second Amendment, guns, hunters and Christians,” Petri said. “I also made Chester exempt from Red Flag laws.”

Prior to his experience in city leadership, Petri had a lifelong career in the military and in law enforcement and achieved many honors while serving.

https://easttexasnews.com/tyler-county-news-2/4092-chester-man-declares-run-for-u-s-presidency

Chester, Texas had a population of 312 in 2010.

[Benjamin Frank]

Has a former Vice President ever run before against his President when they had run on the same ticket? (I.E not including when the second place finisher in the electoral college became the Vice President.)

I know that Edmond Muskie ran against Hubert Humphrey in 1972.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/garygrumbach/status/1653235464520839168?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno...

Youngkin's people clarified it to say that he wouldn't run for President in 2023. Realistically the only way Youngkin could run is if there is a deadlock and he can come in as some kind of compromise candidate sort of like, I guess, Michael Bloomberg tried to do on the Democratic side in 2020.

Or, if there was a clear frontrunner but who didn't have majority delegate support and was facing 'buyer's remorse' kind of like when Jerry Brown entered late against Jimmy Carter in 1976.

I don't like to make predictions, but I don't think either scenario is going to happen.

[Benjamin Frank]

Has anybody heard any possiblility of a single elected Democratic official who might run in the Democratic primary against Biden in 2024? Like a city councilor or something. There are the three little known former Republican officeholders running for the Presidential nomination.

[Benjamin Frank]

Ron Gunzberger at www.politics1.com has elevated, on the Democratic side, Robert Kennedy Jr and Marianne Williamson to the same rank as President Biden with a picture and a description. However, there seems to be possibly a bit of editorial judgement:

Attorney/Anti-Vaccine Activist Robert Kennedy Jr. (California)
New Age Author Marianne Williamson (California)

On the Republican side, Will Hurd and Rick Perry have been added, but not, so far, Brian Kemp who seems to have opened the possibility of running.

https://www.politics1.com/p2024.htm

[Benjamin Frank]

Will Hurd could be an interesting candidate in that he genuinely believes 'facts matter' but I agree he'd be a better opponent to Ted Cruz. I can't believe Ted Cruz hasn't gotten significant primary competition. I thought that even Republicans hated him.

[Benjamin Frank]

Wasn't sure this merited its own thread, but if we're going to have to endure an entire primary of liberals and "moderates" lauding how nice Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Chris Sununu, and so forth are compared to Trump...just kill me now. Tim Scott couldn't name a single policy that he differs from Donald Trump on, and perhaps the only thing that makes him different from any standard Trump Republican is that he has talked about his issues being racially profiled by police (despite supporting legislation to racially profile suspected illegal immigrants...) which is something that Republicans do not believe is possible. He is DOA, sure, but Democrats are going to unwittingly usher in a new era of Republican extremism that is just nicer on its face, not any less extreme in practice. It's sickening. "Republicans, before Trump" were not good. You know who the pre-Trump Republicans were? War criminals, corporate shills, and homophobes. That is not better than Trump. It is just a different kind of bad.

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1660673616747405313?s=20

The only Republican considering running who would not be either Trump or Trumpian is Will Hurd. Even self proclaimed anti Trump Chris Christie is Trumpian.

[Benjamin Frank]

Wasn't sure this merited its own thread, but if we're going to have to endure an entire primary of liberals and "moderates" lauding how nice Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Chris Sununu, and so forth are compared to Trump...just kill me now. Tim Scott couldn't name a single policy that he differs from Donald Trump on, and perhaps the only thing that makes him different from any standard Trump Republican is that he has talked about his issues being racially profiled by police (despite supporting legislation to racially profile suspected illegal immigrants...) which is something that Republicans do not believe is possible. He is DOA, sure, but Democrats are going to unwittingly usher in a new era of Republican extremism that is just nicer on its face, not any less extreme in practice. It's sickening. "Republicans, before Trump" were not good. You know who the pre-Trump Republicans were? War criminals, corporate shills, and homophobes. That is not better than Trump. It is just a different kind of bad.

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1660673616747405313?s=20

The only Republican considering running who would not be either Trump or Trumpian is Will Hurd. Even self proclaimed anti Trump Chris Christie is Trumpian.

Lmao Tim Scott, the globalist pro-amnesty free trader neocon is Trumpian???

Other than pro-amnesty (which I was not aware Scott is) Trump was much more of a mixed bag on all these things while President. Despite the attempts to remake the Trump Administration into some kind of ideologically consistent whole, it was extremely erratic. But, the Trump Administration was frequently pro free trade and often neocon, and certainly otherwise mostly pro corporate with both tax cuts and deregulation.

On social issues, I don't believe Trump's campaign views and Scott's differ in the slightest.

Most importantly, Scott is pro insurrection.

[Benjamin Frank]

Wasn't sure this merited its own thread, but if we're going to have to endure an entire primary of liberals and "moderates" lauding how nice Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Chris Sununu, and so forth are compared to Trump...just kill me now. Tim Scott couldn't name a single policy that he differs from Donald Trump on, and perhaps the only thing that makes him different from any standard Trump Republican is that he has talked about his issues being racially profiled by police (despite supporting legislation to racially profile suspected illegal immigrants...) which is something that Republicans do not believe is possible. He is DOA, sure, but Democrats are going to unwittingly usher in a new era of Republican extremism that is just nicer on its face, not any less extreme in practice. It's sickening. "Republicans, before Trump" were not good. You know who the pre-Trump Republicans were? War criminals, corporate shills, and homophobes. That is not better than Trump. It is just a different kind of bad.

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1660673616747405313?s=20

The only Republican considering running who would not be either Trump or Trumpian is Will Hurd. Even self proclaimed anti Trump Chris Christie is Trumpian.

Lmao Tim Scott, the globalist pro-amnesty free trader neocon is Trumpian???

Other than pro-amnesty (which I was not aware Scott is) Trump was much more of a mixed bag on all these things while President. Despite the attempts to remake the Trump Administration into some kind of ideologically consistent whole, it was extremely erratic. But, the Trump Administration was frequently pro free trade and often neocon, and certainly otherwise mostly pro corporate with both tax cuts and deregulation.

On social issues, I don't believe Trump's campaign views and Scott's differ in the slightest.

Most importantly, Scott is pro insurrection.

Tim Scott voted to certify the election results and has been outspoken about the election being fair since 2020.

Also, Trumpism isn't about the policies enacted while Trump was in office, it's about Trump's rhetoric.

Tim Scott also voted to acquit Trump for January 6 (which, if along with a subsequent vote would have prevented Trump from being able to run again) and voted to block the January 6 commission. He's pro insurrection.

Trumpian is being similar to Trump rhetorically or to his way of acting politically or to his policies, such as they are. Trying to have it both ways, as you and I show Scott tried to do with January 6, is very Trumpian.

[Benjamin Frank]

Wasn't sure this merited its own thread, but if we're going to have to endure an entire primary of liberals and "moderates" lauding how nice Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Chris Sununu, and so forth are compared to Trump...just kill me now. Tim Scott couldn't name a single policy that he differs from Donald Trump on, and perhaps the only thing that makes him different from any standard Trump Republican is that he has talked about his issues being racially profiled by police (despite supporting legislation to racially profile suspected illegal immigrants...) which is something that Republicans do not believe is possible. He is DOA, sure, but Democrats are going to unwittingly usher in a new era of Republican extremism that is just nicer on its face, not any less extreme in practice. It's sickening. "Republicans, before Trump" were not good. You know who the pre-Trump Republicans were? War criminals, corporate shills, and homophobes. That is not better than Trump. It is just a different kind of bad.

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1660673616747405313?s=20

The only Republican considering running who would not be either Trump or Trumpian is Will Hurd. Even self proclaimed anti Trump Chris Christie is Trumpian.

Lmao Tim Scott, the globalist pro-amnesty free trader neocon is Trumpian???

Other than pro-amnesty (which I was not aware Scott is) Trump was much more of a mixed bag on all these things while President. Despite the attempts to remake the Trump Administration into some kind of ideologically consistent whole, it was extremely erratic. But, the Trump Administration was frequently pro free trade and often neocon, and certainly otherwise mostly pro corporate with both tax cuts and deregulation.

On social issues, I don't believe Trump's campaign views and Scott's differ in the slightest.

Most importantly, Scott is pro insurrection.

Tim Scott voted to certify the election results and has been outspoken about the election being fair since 2020.

Also, Trumpism isn't about the policies enacted while Trump was in office, it's about Trump's rhetoric.

Tim Scott also voted to acquit Trump for January 6 (which, if along with a subsequent vote would have prevented Trump from being able to run again) and voted to block the January 6 commission. He's pro insurrection.

Trumpian is being similar to Trump rhetorically or to his way of acting politically or to his policies, such as they are. Trying to have it both ways, as you and I show Scott tried to do with January 6, is very Trumpian.

Smoothbrained post

I'm not really sure what that means, but anyway, I think I've shown that substantively, he's both Trumpian and pro insurrection. He's astute politically and he has two things going for him that I think could make him a serious primary candidate:

1.He's the only person running in the U.S Senate, which gives him a potentially powerful singular platform

2.He's black. Many Republicans primary voters have clearly been trying to find a black candidate going back to Herman Cain in 2008. But, neither Herman Cain nor Ben Carson were poltically astute or, ultimately, credible.

However, were Tim Scott to get elected President, based on his stated policies and his cynically astute approach to politics,  I see no reason he'd be any better than George W Bush or Donald Trump, easily the two worst Presidents since the start of the 20th Century (after McKinley's assassination.) Not that that makes him worse than DeSantis or Nikki Haley.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1668336326004084737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[Benjamin Frank]

Where does Hurd get the money from to run?

I would think never Trump Republicans. Who else would they be supporting?

Chris Christie is a decent prosecutor, but he's also a loudmouth with no credibility.

Asa Hutchinson is anti Trump but is also very right wing.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1680380934112137216

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1680380934112137216

He'd be better off in the Senate race, where he'd actually be the favorite in the Republican Primary. (I doubt he could beat Tim Kaine, though).

Good point. He has plenty of time to switch to the Senate race.

ETA: Jackson's website explains why he's running for President:
The answers are all in his new top selling book. This book covers a host of issues and provides a blue print for securing America’s future.
PURCHASE SWEET LAND OF LIBERTY

[Benjamin Frank]

If President Biden was to show actual signs of (new real) health problems, who do you think would be the first to get into the Democratic primaries to challenge Biden? Kind of like when Senator Eugene McCarthy challenged President Lyndon Johnson in 1968.

My guess is it would be some former U.S House member who has no plan to get back into electoral politics so doesn't mind annoying the Democratic establishment, but I can't think of a name other than maybe Stephanie Murphy.

[Benjamin Frank]

lol is anyone suggesting Booker because that guy completely dropped off after 2019

I'm pretty sure Booker himself said that he wouldn't run for President again, but would focus on being a U.S Senator and moving up in the Senate.

[Benjamin Frank]

Which Republican will be the first to drop out and when?

[Benjamin Frank]

Which Republican will be the first to drop out and when?

Will Hurd, November.

I was thinking that as well, especially if Liz Cheney endorses Chris Christie. I would also expect Hurd to endorse Christie. I think Christie is a phony - a lawyer who can argue any side with the same passion as he used to when defending Trump - but he does seem to be gaining more traction than I thought he would, especially in some of the early states.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/alexthomp/status/1684882812808417280?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

This answers my question of which Democrat might challenge President Biden in the event Biden suffered a health challenge.

[Benjamin Frank]

Dean Philips is a weird recruit. He’s just a three term representative with no elected experience and hasn’t even chaired a committee or subcommittee. The only thing he has going is he’s lowkey hot in a Patrick Dempsey way

With a net worth of $77 million in 2018, Phillips is one of the wealthiest members of Congress.

A tweet (or an X) from some organization called AlphaNews said that Phillips was worth $123 million as of 2023.

He's the heir to some alcohol/spirits fortune. (Personally I'd prefer somebody be an heir to Thomas Edison's spirit phone to speak to the dead fortune, but I guess that didn't work.)

From the Politico article linked to in that tweet (or X.)
"Phillips, 54, is highly unlikely to mount a primary challenge unless Biden’s health worsens or his political standing drops precipitously, I’m told, and does not want to further weaken the president."

Thomas Edison's spirit phone: Dial-a-Ghost on Thomas Edison’s Least Successful Invention: the Spirit Phone
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/dial-a-ghost-on-thomas-edisons-least-successful-invention-the-spirit-phone

Politics is interesting but the paranormal really is a lot more fun. Was it really not successful or do THEY not want us to know how successful it is? (The only people who ask who are THEY/THEM? are one of they/them)