Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Today, PM Sánchez finally presented his entire cabinet. There will be 17 ministers. One of the more interesting things is that there will be 11 women and 6 men, actually a world record! So much for equality I guess XD

The other interesting thing is that this is quite a technocratic cabinet. Many ministers have experience on their related fields and there's a sizable amount of (nominal) independents (7), while there are few career politicians.

Anyways, here is the entire cabinet:

Prime Minister: Pedro Sánchez. Former MP for Madrid (2013-2016), secretary general of PSOE



Deputy Prime Minister and minister of equality: Carmen Calvo. Doctor in constitutional law, former minister of culture (2004-2007). Helped Sánchez when he ran for his old job, and helped negotiate article 155.



Minister of education and government speaker: Isabel Celaá. Former regional minister of education in the Basque Country (2009-2012).



Minister of Agriculture, fishing and alimentation: Luis Planas. Former regional minister of Agriculture in Andalucía (2012-2013). Ran against Susana Díaz in PSOE-A's regional leadership election. Has also had some agriculture related jobs in the EU.



Minister of foreign affairs, European Union and cooperation: Josep Borrell. Former speaker of the European Parliament (2004-2007). Former minister of public works under Felipe González (1993-1996). Failed 2000 PM candidate. He is also quite known for his unionist speeches in Catalonia.



Minister of Science, innovation and universities: Pedro Duque. An astronaut for the ESA and an aerospace engineer. Probably one of the most interesting ministers



Minister of culture and sports: Màxim Huerta. Journalist who worked for quite a while in a morning program. He has apparently written 5 books as well. Another interesting minister.



Minister of defense: Margarita Robles. Speaker of the PSOE parliamentary group. Another of the people who were behind Sánchez the entire time and part of his close group. Also a high ranking member of the ministry of the interior under González (basically "deputy minister") and a supreme court judge.



Minister of economics and business: Nadia Calviño. Economist and the head of the bugdet direction of the European Comission.



Minister of public works: Jose Luis Ábalos. Another of the closest group of Sánchez supporters. MP for Valencia.



Minister of the treasury: María Jesús Montero. Regional minister of the treasury under Susana Díaz (2013-2018), also regional minister of healthcare under various andalusian governments (2004-2013). She also has a degree in medicine.



Minister of industry, commerce and tourism: María Reyes Maroto. Regional MP in Madrid's regional assembly and speaker of the budget committee in Madrid's regional assembly.



Minister of the interior: Fernando Grande-Marlaska. Former judge of the Audiencia Nacional and member of the general council of the judiciary (appointed by PP interestingly!)



Minister of justice: Dolores delgado. A prosecutor specialized in fighting against yihadist terrorism. Member of the prosecutor's council.



Minister of territorial policy and public function: Meritxell Batet. Number 1 member of parliament for Barcelona. Former teacher of administrative law and of constitutional law at Pompeu Fabra university in Barcelona.



Minister of healthcare, consumption and social welfare: Regional minister of healthcare in the Valencian Community (2015-2018). She's also been an MP in Congress (2004-2015)



Minister of labour, inmigration and social security: Magdalena Valerio. Former Regional minister of labour (2005-2007); tourism (2007-2008) and justice (2008-2010) in Castille-La Mancha and former MP for Guadalajara (2011-2016)



Minister of ecological transition: Teresa Rivera. Former secretary of state of the environment and climate change, and former  head of the Spanish office of climate change (2004-2011)

[Oryxslayer]

I guess the whole point of a technocratic and more moderate cabinet over one more partisan loyal is to portray the PSOE as the stable and productive party in the upcoming elections.

[Velasco]

I guess the whole point of a technocratic and more moderate cabinet over one more partisan loyal is to portray the PSOE as the stable and productive party in the upcoming elections.

Sánchez wants to convey the idea of a solid and technically skilled government that represents the modern Spain, in contrast with the old-fashioned XIX Century style of Matiano Rajoy and the low profile of many members of his cabinet, hardly known by the Spanish public. Also, Pedro Sánchez stated that feminist demonstrations on March 8 marked a turning point in Spain and his government wants to reflect changes in the Spanish society. There are many skilled women in society, but there are few in powerful positions due to the so-called "glass ceiling". The high number of women is a gesture, a declaration of intent. Given its fragile parliamentary minority, this government will have to negotiate a lot and make a lot of gestures on order to gain the public opinión.

My first impression is very positive. I like all appointmrnts with the possible exceptions of Maxim Huerta and judge Grande-Marlaska.

EDIT: The moderate profile of the cabinet and the inclusion of people like Nadia Calviño, Josep Borrell otr Grande-Marlaska seem to be aimed to fight in the centre against Ciudadanos. The feminist character of this government appeals to young women, because Sánchez felt that PSOE was losing their vote after March 8.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Unfortunately or, perhaps, fortunately, depending on your perspective on the purpose and strategy of governance, PSOE may have had poor timing in executing its parliamentary coup of the PP. Strangely, the brewing problems that are affecting emerging markets in Turkey, Brazil, Argentina and others may be of great importance to Spain, as the Spanish financial sector is very exposed to credit shocks. This is not immediately obvious, especially as business journalists have decided that the problems that began in Argentina and Turkey are isolated, even as currency devaluations in emerging markets have become common, suggesting that there is some sort of "contagion" effect but it's certainly the case that what occurs in Brazil and Turkey cannot be isolated from Spain:


One may argue that Spain may be spared this nasty shock to its financial sector on the basis that, individually, a deep recession in any given emerging economy would not be enough to bring its banks under but there appears to be a simultaneity of shocks in emerging markets. Suffice it to say that I hope that the PSOE government is prepared for this, the Spanish financial sector has, again, taken on a great deal of risk. I'd post this elsewhere but I'm not sure if it merits a separate thread - I felt that it ought to be considered here, as, in some ways, there is an eerie resemblance between contemporaneous events and the emerging markets crises of the 90s. If the resemblance is not merely coincidental, Spain will almost certainly be affected.

[Velasco]

The current period of (unequally distributed) growth in Spain is not going to last forever. Knowing that the Spanish banking sector is exposed to turbulence coming from emerging markets should be a matter of concern. I ignore to what extent the new economic decision makers are aware or concerned by that. It's like nothing has been learnt from the last crisis...

[Velasco]

New government takes office

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/07/inenglish/1528359765_948129.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Spaniards trust more Pedro Sánchez government than Rajoy's for the resolution of problems, poll says

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2018/06/08/politica/1528435287_628929.html

42.8% say the new administration will do better, 24.5% just as the old, 24,4% worse

The main concerns of the government should be:

Unemployment and job insecurity 53.4%, pensions 37.9%, fight against corruption 37.9%, normalization of Catalonia 30.0%, tackling poverty and inequality 29.9%

Soledad Gallego-Díaz set to become the new editor-in-chief of El País

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/07/inenglish/1528370083_541641.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   

[Lord Halifax]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   

She is 67, retirement age in most countries. Is it normal to appoint people that old to such positions in Spain?

[Former President tack50]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This could reverse the rightward drift of the newspaper   

She is 67, retirement age in most countries. Is it normal to appoint people that old to such positions in Spain?

Well, Luis Cebrían, the owner of PRISA (the holding that has El País and other media like the radio station Cadena SER) reciently retired at age 73.

For another comparison, Pedro J. Ramirez, another famous journalist (former head of El Mundo and now head of El Español), is currently 66 years old and is still the boss of a newspaper.

[Former President tack50]

We finally got our first polls after the new government was unveiled. And PSOE gets its first leads in a poll for the first time since 2015!

NC Report for La Razón

PP: 25.5% (105-108)
PSOE: 24.9% (96-99)
Cs: 21.0% (69-72)
UP: 16.7% (50-53)

ERC: 3.1% (10-11)
PDECat: 1.5% (5-6)
PNV: 1.2% (6)
EH Bildu: 0.8% (2)
CC: 0.3% (1)

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE: 28.8% (118)
PP: 25.6% (101)
Cs: 21.1% (70)
UP: 13.1% (34)

ERC: 3.2% (13)
PDECat: 1.6% (5)
PNV: 1% (5)
EH Bildu: 0.8% (3)
CC: 0.3% (1)

Invymark for La Sexta

PSOE 25,1%
PP 23,7%
C’s 22,2%
UP 17,3%

[Former President tack50]

Well, we now have a date for the PP congress which will elect a new party leader: the congress will take place on the 20th and 21st of July.

And in a very interesting move for PP, there will actually be a primary! Granted it's technically non-binding; but just like in PSOE's case I don't think the party leaders will overturn the results even if they somehow lost to some insurgent (which I definitely don't see happening in PP).

Not only that, but it will be a somewhat complicated 2 round system. In round 1 all PP party members vote. They get 2 votes: one to elect the delegates to the PP party congress (kind of similar to US primaries, except the delegates are unbound?) and in the 2nd they vote directly for party leader. There are 3 ways to win in round 1 with the vote of the PP base:

Win more than 50% of the vote
Win in more than half of Spain's provinces
Beat your closest rival by at least 15%

If no candidate fulfills at least one of those requirements, the final vote between the 2 candidates will be decided in PP's party congress by the delegates, though I guess the runner up will probably drop out.

Considering the rules, I'd say it would be hard to get a "brokered convention" and have the delegates decide. Applying those rules to PSOE's primaries, Sánchez would have won in round 1 both times, even in 2014 when he didn't get a majority.

The full calendar is:

June 18-20: Candidates present their candidacies
25th of June: Last day to register to vote for PP party members
5th of July: PP party members vote
20th/21st of July: PP party congress. Delegates vote on the definitive leader (this vote could be simply symbolic with only 1 candidate or an actual decision)

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/proceso-sustituto-Rajoy-votacion-militantes_0_781122215.html




Also, we have a new poll which basically only confirms what we already knew; PSOE is ahead now out of nowhere. Interestingly, "others" is at 3% and all the nationalists and PACMA aren't in others. I  guess this is a very good poll for Vox, they could easily be getting 1 seat and 2% even if this poll doesn't show them separately

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

PSOE: 25.8% (102-105)
PP: 24.3% (98-102)
Cs: 21.1% (65-68)
UP: 17.4% (50-54)

ERC: 3.0% (11)
PDECat: 1.5% (6)
PNV: 1.2% (6)
EH Bildu: 0.9% (2-3)
CC: 0.3% (1)
BNG: 0.2% (0)

PACMA: 1.3% (0)
Others: 3%

This poll should almost certainly show something along the lines of "Vox: 1.7% (1)" but it just groups them on others IMO. Unless fringe stuff like PCPE, UPyD or Zero Cuts-the Greens are out of nowhere polling in the high 0.x% which I don't see happening.



Finally, the infamous ship stranded in the Mediterranean after both Italy and Malta rejected it will go to Spain. I wonder if this will cause a lot of inmigration now. If it does, the right will probably go up and Vox will have the best opportunity of its lifetime.

[TheSaint250]

With the news that Sánchez is taking in the rejected migrants, could Vox’s numbers rise if this continues?

[Former President tack50]

Maybe, maybe not. There might not even be a backlash against the left at all! (though I'll admit this is unlikely). Maybe Cs or PP start campaigning against inmigrants and get those votes. Or maybe Vox does rise after all and starts actually registering in polls.

Worth noting that as of now, inmigration is only a top 3 worry for about 3% of Spaniards. Back when inmigration was at its peak (2006-2007) it was a top 3 priority for about 35% of Spaniards. And yet there was no far right populist party rising in the mid 00s.

Closest thing was PxC, a local party in Catalonia which managed some local success and came close to getting seats in 2010, but fizzled out once independence became the number 1 issue there.

However if literally everywhere else in Europe is any indication, they will rise unless Cs/PP manage to steal their voters. If Spain gets a migrant crisis (with such boats coming every week or maybe every few days), and people get worried about it, I could see them getting around 4% of the vote and 4-5 seats but that's incredibly unlikely. Most likely they might rise slightly in the popular vote (say, up to 2.5%) but still be stuck at 1 seat or possibly 2.

[Velasco]

If Matteo Salvini is Trump, then Pedro Sánchez is Trudeau

[Former President tack50]

The Sánchez government isn't even 2 weeks old and it already has a scandal!

Màxim Huerta, the minister of Culture and Sport (and already quite controversial for his tweets about sport) had resigned this afternoon after it was discovered that he was found guilty of tax evasion in the past and had to pay 365 000€ for it.

He initially refused to resign but after several declarations from both Sánchez about corrupt politicians, critics from all parties and the like happened, he had to resign.

This almost certainly makes Màxim Huerta the shortest lived minister in Spanish history XD

[MAINEiac4434]

This isn't even including the fact that the hugely popular Spanish national team goalkeeper David de Gea was accused by Sanchez of having sexually assaulted a minor (the allegations were false). Sanchez never apologized, and now De Gea is demanding one on the eve of the World Cup: http://www.the42.ie/de-gea-demands-public-apology-from-spanish-prime-minister-4065761-Jun2018/

[Velasco]

The Sánchez government isn't even 2 weeks old and it already has a scandal!

Màxim Huerta, the minister of Culture and Sport (and already quite controversial for his tweets about sport) had resigned this afternoon after it was discovered that he was found guilty of tax evasion in the past and had to pay 365 000€ for it.

He initially refused to resign but after several declarations from both Sánchez about corrupt politicians, critics from all parties and the like happened, he had to resign.

This almost certainly makes Màxim Huerta the shortest lived minister in Spanish history XD

It's a good sign that Maxim Huerta resigned so quickly. He didn't tell Sánchez he had an affair with tax authotities. It's obvious that Sánchez lacked the time to verify the background of Mr Huerta, who is his friend. There has been a certain degree of improvisation in this appointment, possibly due to lack of time. Maxim Huerta was not the first choice, apparently the post was offered to others before. José Guirao, a former durector of Reina Sofía Contemporary Arts Museum, was appointed in the same day replacing Huerta. Opposite profiles: cultural manager Vs journalist, writer and celebrity.

The standard has been set high. In demanding the resignation of Mr Huerta, PP, Cs and Podemos comit themselves to act in a similar way when they are in government. That's great news; leaving aside the anazing cynicism of PP.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Sánchez restored health care under the SNS (Sistema Nacional de Salud) to undocumented immigrants, reversing Rajoy decision that had restricted it to people legally in the country.

[Former President tack50]

Well, 2 news items today.

First of all, Albert Rivera wants Spain to have a 3% national threshold for general elections, basically as a "stop secessionists" measure. Of course in practice it would be ineffective as they'd simply run in a coalition like they already do in EU parliament elections. But I guess it's noteworthy.

Worth noting that the right wing coalition would have always entered parliament (in fact, CiU alone would have entered parliament several times), and the left wing coalition only sometimes.

It would actually do more harm to small national parties. So Vox and PACMA would have an even harder time getting seats. And historically 3 parties would have dropped out: UPyD (2008), CDS (1982) and FN (1979).

The 2nd news is that we now have our first declared candidate for the PP leadership election: José Ramón García Hernández, MP for Ávila and someone I didn't know until today. No idea if he'll even be allowed on the ballot but there he is.

Former minister of foreign affairs, Jose María Margallo is also collecting the required endorsements to run, but he officially hasn't declared if he will finally run or not. He has said that he wants to stop fmr. deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría at all costs though (they seem to have a very bad relation)

Anyways, Jose Ramón García is a dark horse candidate. That can be a good (a clean candidate) or a bad thing (unknown). Zapatero was also an unknown MP from Leon in 2000 so who knows.

Margallo would be a good candidate, iirc he was one of the ministers with the highest approval ratings. His only problem would be age, he is quite old at age 73.

[Former President tack50]

More movement in PP's leadership election.

Pablo Casado, MP for Ávila and one of PP's young faces and one of the better known MPs has decided to run for party leader. This is slightly surprising but of the 3 candidates thus far he is probably the one with the best chance.

However, a more interesting turn comes from regional president of Galicia Alberto Núñez Feijoo, who has decided not to run! He was thus far considered the frontrunner for the leadership election. Now that he is not running, I wonder what will the effect be.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Without Feijoo, it looks to be a competition between Santamaria and Cospedal, which is certainly interesting.

[Former President tack50]

Yup, both Santamaría and Cospedal have declared today their intention to run. Assuming everyone who declared eventually gets in the ballot, this will be the most contested leadership election in history, with at least 6 candidates. Thus far the record is the 2000 PSOE leadership election, which had 4 candidates.

Also assuming that one of the frontrunners eventually wins, this will also be the first time a major party is led by a woman and barring a huge PP collapse, the best result for a woman in an election (thus far the record is Rosa Diez's 4.7% so whoever wins will beat that).

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez intends to last until 2020

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/19/inenglish/1529394392_925595.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"Normalization" is badly needed in Catalonia, or in the words of Justice minister Dolores Delgado there's need to "reduce the inflamation" in order to "avoid more pain".

The weakness of PSOE in Congress is well known, but the sucession crisis in PP opens a window of opportunity.

Without Feijoo, it looks to be a competition between Santamaria and Cospedal, which is certainly interesting.

I think this is going to be a contest between two women who hate each other, with Pablo Casado in the middle as a possible dark horse.

María Dolores de Cosèdal, who resigns as PP secretary general, offers "Victory, Victory and Victory" trying to inpersonate a female version of Winston Churchill.

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría vindicates her experence in government and opposition, adressing press in front of the Congress. She offers "modernity" and "integration". She says PP will be soon back in government if they prform a good opposition in Parliament.

Pablo Casado wants ro build the "common house" of the Spanish centre-right where everyone to the right of PSOE feels comfortable. Also he appeals to the !Spain of the balconies", referring to people putting Spanish flags in their balconies during the worst phase of the crisis in Catalonia.

Sáenz de Santamaría and Cospedal have tried to attract Casado to their side, unsucessfully. Casado is young and promising but jhe has two disadvantages:   

1) He took the same Master at Rey Juan Carlos University that caused the resignation of former Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes. Cadado obtained the Master Degree surprisingly quickly and some judge is investigating.

2) He might be seen as too much right-wing, too close to former PM José María Aznar and former Madrid leader Esperanza Aguirre.

Former Foreign Affairs minister José Manuel García-Margallo and the other two candidates (Ramón García Hernández and José Luis Bayo) look like outsiders. García-Margallo has serious differences with Sáenz de Santamaría on the management of the conflict in Catalonia.

[TheSaint250]

Wasn’t calling for new elections part of his big promises?

That’s not a good way to start out your term (though to be honest Spain would probably have to go through at least two elections to finally get a new government considering the divided field, so this could be fine).

[Velasco]

Wasn’t calling for new elections part of his big promises?

That’s not a good way to start out your term (though to be honest Spain would probably have to go through at least two elections to finally get a new government considering the divided field, so this could be fine).

The point is that only Cs is interested in calling new elections. Neither PSOE nor the parties supporting the no-confidence motion want. Neither wants the PP, absorbed in its succession crisis and with corruption trials pending resolution. Moreover, when the high-profile appointments to the cabinet were revealed it became evident that Pedro Sánchez wanted to last. Someone said the new government was designed for the next 5 years, because Pedro Sánchez hopes to win the next election.

Regarding the resignation of Maxim Huerta, who was the Culture and Sports minister for six days,  possibly it had a collateral impact in the PP leadership contest. Galicia premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó was the frontrunner, but shockingly he withdrew from the race. Possibly the reasons behind his decision are some old photographs of him with narco Marcial Dorado relaxing on a yacht deck.

https://www.eldiario.es/galicia/Feijoo-recordarle-Marcial-Dorado-difamar_0_554345121.html

https://www.elespanol.com/reportajes/20180615/marcial-dorado-espada-amenaza-feijoo-limpiando-carcel/315219546_0.html

 The images were released by El País a couple of years ago; despite some conmotion they didn't end Feijoó's career. However, the resignation of Maxim Huerta for has set a new standard. If Maxim Huerta had to resign due to his already solved problems with tax authorities, try to imagine what would happen when Núñez Feijoó is proclaimed PP leader and those photographs surface again in the media. Maybe something is changing for good in Spanish politics.

[Oryxslayer]

Nobody want new elections, but if push comes to shove, I suspect most of the former government would choose them over backing a PSOE budget or high profile proposal. So while Sanchez is setting himself up for a full term, I suspect it is just posturing to make the PSOE look like "the party of stability" and the incumbent when elections eventually come.