Spanish elections and politics

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why is Rivas-Vaciamadrid a stronghold of the left?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Does anyone think the British Brexit vote could have any impact on the outcome of the Spanish election on Sunday?

Some analysts say that it would have an impact because some people would seek more stability. PP will try to take advantage. Others say it will have little impact. The scandal involving the minister of interior adds even more uncertainty.

If there's any lesson to be learned from the Brexit/Grexit referenda, it's that voters are not all that concerned about "stability" nor are they apt to listen to financial commentators or center-right politicians who preach doom in the face of political change. At least, that would be my take: there's little reason to believe that PP would benefit from this; maybe more naranjas will vote for PP but, outside of that, I don't see any benefits for Rajoy.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Unfortunately or, perhaps, fortunately, depending on your perspective on the purpose and strategy of governance, PSOE may have had poor timing in executing its parliamentary coup of the PP. Strangely, the brewing problems that are affecting emerging markets in Turkey, Brazil, Argentina and others may be of great importance to Spain, as the Spanish financial sector is very exposed to credit shocks. This is not immediately obvious, especially as business journalists have decided that the problems that began in Argentina and Turkey are isolated, even as currency devaluations in emerging markets have become common, suggesting that there is some sort of "contagion" effect but it's certainly the case that what occurs in Brazil and Turkey cannot be isolated from Spain:


One may argue that Spain may be spared this nasty shock to its financial sector on the basis that, individually, a deep recession in any given emerging economy would not be enough to bring its banks under but there appears to be a simultaneity of shocks in emerging markets. Suffice it to say that I hope that the PSOE government is prepared for this, the Spanish financial sector has, again, taken on a great deal of risk. I'd post this elsewhere but I'm not sure if it merits a separate thread - I felt that it ought to be considered here, as, in some ways, there is an eerie resemblance between contemporaneous events and the emerging markets crises of the 90s. If the resemblance is not merely coincidental, Spain will almost certainly be affected.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?

No but it's absurd to focus only on Vox when the C's surged to the same degree but in a more broad-based manner. Clearly migration played an important role in this election but the C's were a more attractive vehicle for those annoyed by the government. Is this a hangover from the Catalonian situation? I have no idea but that seems possible. Easy to forget that this occurred recently...

Worth noting that turnout was very anemic and that there was a turnout differential between agricultural communities and more affluent urban/suburban communities. This almost certainly helped parties of the right across the board, even if it only explains a small, yet significant, part of the swing. Cold comfort for PSOE but no one should look at these results and think that they're finished.  

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Yet another depressing election result.

Has there literally been any good election this decade for left wing parties in Europe?

Andalucia in 2011? Wouldn't say that was a "good" result, exactly, but part of the reason why this is grim to ponder is due to the fact that the left has always been dominant in Andalucia. IIRC, in 2011, PSOE held its ground in surprising fashion when many had written them off.

PSOE is in government at the national level now so this was always a possibility. It feels worse because Vox did very well but, again, as I mentioned to Tender, people are ignoring C's for some reason. As a matter of fact, that party is very extreme but it's easy to see why many PSOE voters would feel comfortable voting for the C's, as they're not a traditional party of the right and have fewer connotations with the wrong side of the Spanish Civil War.