🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Omega21]

^^ it's basically unlawful, morally wrong and will never happen,
but let pretend it does happen and Muslim immigration is stopped, it won't change the narrative, in fact I think it will embolden the AfD and other far right parties even more.

You can't win the argument by imitating far right policies, particularly when it comes to immigration and integration,

You need to counterattack, change the narrative and talk about all the teachers, engineers, doctors, nurses, skilled workers and all the benefits migrants add to the society,

Teachers, engineers, doctors and nurses?

Did you fact check any of this? I guess not, since emotions are what counts, yeah?



Look at all those Somalian Eritrean and Afghani doctors, wonderful.
(https://www.iwkoeln.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Studien/Report/PDF/2017/IW-Report_2017_37_Education_Levels_of_Refugees.pdf)

For comparison:  In Germany, 86% of adults aged 25-64 have completed upper secondary education (http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/germany/)

This is without mentioning that some of them will refuse to integrate, shown at least by the rising number of Female Genital Mutilation cases, Polygamy etc. across Europe, especially the UK, since you can't say "There was FGM before immigrants started coming" because there was none. Just an example that you cannot refute, if you use your brain that is.

Yes, there are doctors and engineers and they should be let in, as they are more likely to be secular and not radically religious. Women and children too, but men in their 20's without any skills? No thank you.

I am an immigrant myself, but guess what? I pay for my education, I pay for all my expenses myself, and contribute to the country I now live in.

[Omega21]

^^ it's basically unlawful, morally wrong and will never happen,
but let pretend it does happen and Muslim immigration is stopped, it won't change the narrative, in fact I think it will embolden the AfD and other far right parties even more.

You can't win the argument by imitating far right policies, particularly when it comes to immigration and integration,

You need to counterattack, change the narrative and talk about all the teachers, engineers, doctors, nurses, skilled workers and all the benefits migrants add to the society,

The contributions of the few teachers, engineers, and doctors are cancelled out by the much larger number of people who go on welfare and have 8 kids who also require welfare.

Immigration has been a net loss for Germany.

Lying is not going to convince anyone.

Can someone fact check Mortimer by posting employment and welfare data for nonwhite immigrants; I highly doubt the fertility rate is 8/woman.

Happy I can help!



(https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Migrant_integration_statistics_%E2%80%93_labour_market_indicators#Employment_rates)

So, employment for EU born migrants is 86,7% for men and 71,8% for Women. For Germans, as you can see it is even higher.

For non-EU migrants, it is 71,5% for Men and 57% for Women (this includes Eastern European and Balkan migrants, and women from these areas are in my experience more likely to work, so the results are probably worse for non-European migrants).

[Omega21]

Rates of employment in jobs with obligatory social insurance by citizenship in August 2018:
Germany 68.6%
not Germany 49.9%
Pakistan 43.6%
Nigeria 39.1%
Eritrea 38.2%
Iran 37.9%
Afghanistan 32.5%
Somalia 28.7%
Iraq 27.7%
Syria 26.0%

Numbers are not comparable with Omega21's EU statistics. It should be noted that the employment rates of citizens from the states mentioned above have risen a lot during the last year.

Source: https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/Statischer-Content/Statistische-Analysen/Statistische-Sonderberichte/Generische-Publikationen/Fluchtmigration.pdf

I doubt the employment among Women from a lot of these countries will ever reach German and EU migrant levels.

Example: I watched a few videos of TV crews wanting to Interview women from these types of places in the streets and in one of them her friends said: "Your husband will kill you".

Now imagine a German woman saying "Oh no, my husband will kill me if talk to you". Yeah, not happening.

This was a bit off topic, but it's a very simple comparison to the cultural differences that will most likely make it impossible for Women from these areas to participate in the workforce at the same rate German and EU migrant women do.

[Omega21]

Right wingers: idpol and collectivism is bad

Also right wingers: we should view every single ethnic group as a monolith with a single collective impact on the nation as a whole

First of all, that is not true.

I support accepting highly educated individuals regardless of their ethnic background, as they are more likely to integrate and can use their skill and profession to contribute. Accepting EVERYONE with the motto "Wir schaffen das"  is collectivist, because you are making no distinction based on the economic potential between the individuals coming, regardless if they are completely uneducated and extremely religious or a brain surgeon with secular views. They all get the same treatment, and all get to come.

[Omega21]

Opinion: @tack;walmartguy

The ones advocating the hard approach on immigration are interestingly on the right-neoliberal traditionally antipopulist wing of the SPD. The idea of soft-strasserism as you both outline was floated by Sahra Wagenknecht actually, something that was immediatly shot down by the rest of die Linke. In germany there is a super-woke idealistic fraction of the Left (Antifa, Pro Asyl...) that bullies anyone on the left into submission or out of the party (including wagenknecht, boris palmer, Sarrazin, that Mayor of Neukölln) that dares to float such ideas, with insults like "closet fascist", "querfront" etc.

Debate on immigration is silenced on the left because of them, anyone with other opinions is immideatly ostracized (Wagenknechts ideas were very moderate actually), which is why noone to the left of Gabriel dares to propose such things. It is the main reason why we have lost the east to the far-right.

So, why not let these fascists go in favour of appealing to, you know, the working class instead of professional whiny white justice warriors...?

I mean, by what you described, they are really close to being literal fascists.

[Omega21]

Even 100% support for NS2 among Germans would not change the fact that even if Germany might become gas hub, still main beneficiary of that whole affair is Russia, and supporting NS2 for real means supporting Russian interests - even if not consciously. Same with the TurkStream.

Thats quite a zero-sum view of the World. Most people support things if is good for them - even if it may be good for someone else too. I have a Chinese Smartphone: Not because I support Chinese interests, Huawei or the CCP at all, but because it was the Phone with the Best Value for me - even if they happened to profit from it too. Same goes with National Governments. I dont think that Canada signed that Free Trade Agreement with the US because they supported US interests - rather because they stood to profit too.

You might do not have such intentions but purchasing Chinese mobile phone supports economic interests of PRC. You maybe would have multi-functional, advanced phone but still your individual consumer choice supported economy of China. Your comfort in global scale is much less important than further strengthening of their market position. Similarly, potential profits from selling natural gas surpluses by Germany are in scale less important than potential geopolitical and economic benefits which Russia might acquire. But in this case we are talking not about individuals but states, which one is generally threatening like one third of EU states and any supporting of that state economic interests should be considered in the EU as at least not welcome.  

And buying LNG from America that's 2x more expensive and needs to be brought on a tanker halfway across the world is worse for the environment.

The more Gas we use, the better it is for the environment, and it just happens that Russia has a reliable, cheap source, that can be transported with minimal impact on the environment (compared to other sources).

Something you should take into account if you support any sort of Green party.

[Omega21]

The US supports Saudi Arabia, buys their oil, and even gives them Military Aid.

So, by buying US gas, you are indirectly supporting one of the two worst and most oppressive regimes on earth (Saudi Arabia and NK are probably the most oppressive towards their own people).

You see where your arguments can lead, so no, IMO your argument is not valid.

[Omega21]

I was just answering your arguments about miraculous fuel which natural gas according to you is, never mentioned that gas from USA is somehow better.

It is miraculous fuel, at least until we can get something else which is 100% sustainable (wind and solar do not work all the time), or we can just build more nuclear.



And yes, it is even more miraculous when it comes from Russia because it does not need a big ass ship to bring it half way across the world.

[Omega21]

In connection with the current Thuringian government formation debate (should the CDU talk with the Left and/or the AfD?), conservative CDU general-secretary Paul Ziemiak went full Antifa and has now published a guest editorial for the SPIEGEL magazine:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/paul-ziemiak-cdu-generalsekretaer-afd-ist-anti-deutschland-partei-gastbeitrag-a-1295061.html

Notable statements he makes in that article:

- Björn Höcke is "a Nazi".

- The AfD is "on its way to become a NPD 2.0", "moving to where the NPD once had its place", and "openly and visibly buildung bridges to right-wing extremism". "Blue turns into brown".

- Any kind of cooperation with the AfD "would be a betrayal of Christian-democratic values", and
anyone who's considering to cooperate with that party "should know that the AfD is questioning basic principles of our constitution".

- Furthermore, the AfD is "adcovating a Volksgemeinschaft based on ethnic homogeneity, that's how it started in 1933" in addition to being "at its core an anti-Germany party".


They're really packing out the big guns in their attempt to keep the genie in the bottle.

It would have been much easier if Merkel and the party openly and clearly promised never to repeat their mistakes from 2015.

[Omega21]

The other scenario, with Söder as Chancellor candidate, CDU/CSU crushes it with 38%, 19 points ahead of SPD:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1383105688717639680

The Union and FDP would have 46% in this scenario, would that be enough for a majority?

Wonderful results, let's hope Söder can get the party back on track, without weak wishy-washy politics.

[Omega21]

Wonderful results, let's hope Söder can get the party back on track, without weak wishy-washy politics.

So, once and for all, those two polls finally made it clear: Certain Green extremists prefer Laschet to Söder just because they know that their party's odds of emerging victorious out of the federal election raise significantly with the former as CDU chancellor candidate, even if they vehemently deny this fact (like they deny all facts of the world)... 

It's the case with some SPD voters as well.

I don't get it either.

I don't support the AfD, but if they polled at 40% with candidate x and 20% with candidate y, I would of course objectively say the best way for them to go forward is with candidate x, regardless of my distaste of their party.

Now, I would get it if they said "I hope they nominate Laschet so that SPD/Greens get more votes", but many seem to be sticking to the "It's the best way for them" argument instead of being honest.

[Omega21]

Do we have a confirmation that no other human being than Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Olaf Scholz will suceed Angela Merkel?

Yes. Laschet was nominated by a CDU backroom vote just now, in spite of massive support for Söder in the voter base.

[Omega21]

LOL

Laschet just literally swapped the party power balance with a single move.

[Omega21]

While the way Laschet got the nomination deserves a lot of criticism, it's kinda ridiculous the Union is losing far more support in polls with this move than much more serious (ongoing) scandals. Like the so called "mask affairs" in which rank and file politicans enrich themselves from a pandemic, Spahn's missmanagement and especially Andi Scheuer's embarrassing and total incompetence as Transportation Minister. The public is responding like Laschet is either some extreme ideologue or had a ton of personal baggage, when neither is the case. That this approach to the nomination appears worse than the issues above is also, at least partially, a result of inadequate press coverage. Laschet deserves criticism for the nominating process, but the hate he's getting is inappropriate in my opinion.

It's not hate, more so anger at the disconnect with the voters and disappointment at yet another "weiter so" candidate.

He's the definition of a softie who will always "find compromises". I mean, that's even how he markets himself, but that's not what the people want right now.

We're literally getting crapped on by everyone around us. Hell, Turkey explores EU waters like it's their backyard: we do nothing. They humiliate our leaders publicly: we do nothing. Countries ban exports of vaccines to the EU, while we're still exporting to them: we do nothing.

Not even gonna talk about Ukraine or anything else, if we can't protect an EU member or ensure we get vaccines as fast as other western countries, it's pointless to talk about anything else out there.

[Omega21]

While the way Laschet got the nomination deserves a lot of criticism, it's kinda ridiculous the Union is losing far more support in polls with this move than much more serious (ongoing) scandals. Like the so called "mask affairs" in which rank and file politicans enrich themselves from a pandemic, Spahn's missmanagement and especially Andi Scheuer's embarrassing and total incompetence as Transportation Minister. The public is responding like Laschet is either some extreme ideologue or had a ton of personal baggage, when neither is the case. That this approach to the nomination appears worse than the issues above is also, at least partially, a result of inadequate press coverage. Laschet deserves criticism for the nominating process, but the hate he's getting is inappropriate in my opinion.

It's not hate, more so anger at the disconnect with the voters and disappointment at yet another "weiter so" candidate.

He's the definition of a softie who will always "find compromises". I mean, that's even how he markets himself, but that's not what the people want right now.

Thing is, Germans do want another "weiter so" candidate? Isn't Merkel super popular? With sky high approvals and what not?

This is a bit of a complicated issue tbh, but no, most CDU voters don't want a new copy-paste Merkel.

Laschet also knows this, that's why yesterday he said specifically in 2 interviews: We don't want " weiter so", but to change many things and keep some of the good from the past.

Also, I am starting to feel like Söder will also be heavily pushed in the election, and Laschet already said he will constantly consult with Söder. This is probably the only way for him to squeeze out a win. The only question is if he will be able to convince people Söder will have a real influence on his decisions. If so, many could still vote for him in order to prevent a Green Govt.

[Omega21]

Laschet has most likely stopped the bleeding in recent days, though there wasn't much room to fall anymore. Not convinced he's turned it around yet, which he absolutely needs. Maybe - and I'm still saying it with caution - people are just done with the CDU after that many years.

The people are not "done with the CDU".

They're done with the CDU that completely and utterly disregarded their electorate when choosing their leader, because "well that's how we always did it and the people behind closed doors voted for me", or "but polls don't mean anything!".

Well, soon enough, the backroom people will be the only ones voting for him.

But hey, at least the moderate FDP gains put a smile on my face, and I'd also be fine with an SPD Govt. if they can keep the Greens under control.

I get that the Planet is in deep sh*t, but the only things their policies will do is degrade Germany's living standard or force young people, who will already be strained by the crumbling population pyramid, to pay back the loans they'll be taking out.

[Omega21]

What does the basic law dictate here? who gets the first shot to present a government for a confidence motion in the Bundestag?

Afaik, it's always been the #1 party

[Omega21]

One of the most ridiculous thing about following Bundestag elections is that there is no centralized site for partial counts. You have to google local municipalities to find out how the count is currently looking like.

2 in 3 German companies still use a fax machine regularly, and internet-wise, Germany ranks around Albania.

[Omega21]

(ask any Londoner).

You mean the London that's encircled by an impenetrable Green Belt?

That's hardly a good example of libertarian politics lol

I don't think there's a single example of sufficient housing regulation and bureaucracy cutting in the EU.

We have come to live with the expectation that planning and getting a building approved takes as long or longer than actually building it. Sprinkle in some ridiculous "green" standards into the mix, and you have beautiful, expensive, turtle speed construction.