NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Duke of York]

James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.

I have no idea who that is and I doubt many other people do.

[Duke of York]

Hochul will win easily. Why is there so much nonsense being said and discussed in here?

I hope so. I want to see Zeldin trounced. What do you think the margin will be?

[Duke of York]

Democrats brace for a potential LOSS in New York State:
https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1588628343339057156
Again, Polling Industry may have gotten this Race wrong as well
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/04/politics/eric-adams-new-york-crime-midterms/index.html

This doesn't sound like Hochul is up double digits as the late Polls are claiming she is.

Sounds like an opinion piece to me. Every poll but Republican partisans have her at 50 or more . There is simply no evidence for this at and nothing in the article indicates it either. No insiders have said this either.

[Duke of York]

Sounds like an opinion piece to me. Every poll but Republican partisans have her at 50 or more . There is simply no evidence for this at all.

We don't actually know where Democratic internals have her because they haven't released any, but this story citing Democratic operatives on background suggests they're not rosy. (Unless this ostensible news story or its sources actually have ulterior motives, which would be harrowing a revelation for Our Democracy.

His claims are not credible. It doesn’t even say anonymous sources.

[Duke of York]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

[Duke of York]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

That seems reasonable to me.

[Duke of York]

So Zeldin could win this?

[Duke of York]

So Zeldin could win this?

If he holds in upstate New York, he could.

Look at Queens, Cuomo won it by a 61% margin, Hochul is only 26% ahead with 70% in.

With a swing like that I’m starting to think he could.

[Duke of York]

Just a broader question: NY doesn't have term limits. How likely do you think it is Hochul runs at least once more in 2026? I think unless she's really unpopular, she does end up running again and then might pass the torch to Delgado in 2030.

I think thats very possible.

[Duke of York]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

[Duke of York]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

not all of it but its definitely a factor. Democrats also didn't show up to the polls.

[Duke of York]

It depends on this ISL ruling in June CA and NY can get more Gerrymandering than before for 24 if ISL is a go

Its doubtful it will be. I want it to fail. Its consequences are too disastrous for a few extra seats.

[Duke of York]

LaSalle had his committee hearing and vote today; he was rejected. Final vote was 2 aye, 10 nay, 7 'without recommendation' (which is sort of a soft Aye, it still results in the nominee being moved to the floor).

AYE - 2 (Sepulveda (D) and Thomas (D))
WITHOUT RECOMMENDATION - 7 (Bailey (D) and all six Republicans)

NAY - 10 (all other Democrats).

Hochul, reportedly, is now going to sue and try to get the judiciary to force the State Senate to take a floor vote.

why would she do that? Take the hint and withdraw the nomination. What makes her the think the judiciary would order a floor vote?

[Duke of York]

We should make a fresh NY megathread later in the month.

Dems won, but they got a scare. This should make them learn and find a way to get along with police, cutting crime, etc.

If not, 2026 will be a bad year for NY Dems. A respectable Republican could beat Hochul or Delgado especially in a Biden six-year itch.

four years is a long tome to make such a prediction.

[Duke of York]

What are the chances Hochul's lawsuit succeeds? I'd imagine quite slim? The Democrats didn't violate any law in rejecting Lasalle, so what right does she have to circumvent the confirmation process?

I say very doubtful , I know of no case where a judge ordered the legislature to hold a vote.

[Duke of York]

Seems really dubious that a court would intervene this deeply into the working of their legislature.

Even if a court ordered a full vote, does Hochul even have the votes?
With all republicans voting yes, Hochul still needs 11 democrats. Easy to imagine senators voting against LaSalle because of the lawsuit. Even if they normally had votes for his confirmation.

I cannot see any judge doing this and setting such a precedent. Hochul needs to withdraw this nomination instead of going down this route and looking ridiculous.

[Duke of York]

This is a great start to Hochul’s first actual term. I wouldn’t be surprised if she doesn’t run for re-election, but that’s still 3 years away

I wouldn't be shocked if Assembly/Senate retaliate with impeachment for this. They probably have the votes if they really want to go there (the entire progressive wing, most normal liberal D's, all Republicans).

There are absolutely no grounds for impeachment over this.

[Duke of York]

She should move on from this and should also scrap the housing units in suburbs

Focus on jobs, etc.

I can see her being primaried in 2026

Yeah how dare we make those area’s affordable.

[Duke of York]

Lol not even close.

https://twitter.com/SamMellins/status/1625950859640115218?s=20

Why on God's green Earth did she push for this so hard and ruin so much of her image and political capital? Did she really think LaSalle had a chance?

Like her predecessor, Hochul is operating under the notion that the proper way to govern as a Democrat is to spit on the party's left flank while appealing to right-wingers. This may have worked well during the Clinton era but is now largely obsolete (and I believe this is a major reason why Democrats underperformed in NY in 2021-22).

This is different.

You know Cuomo wouldn't have gotten in this mess.

Cuomo is the reason the maps were struck down. Had he picked better judges, Democrats might have done even better in the State Senate and maybe even kept the House.

[Duke of York]

Who the hell is this LaSalle guy and why does he not back out? Why Hochul seem damned d determined to put him on the court? This whole mess defies logic and reason. If this was a federal appointment he likely would’ve been dropped months ago or withdraw his own name. 

he was already voted down the the full senate.