NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if there’s already a mod for this race?
https://twitter.com/carbo_al/status/1587493312537264129?s=46&t=U9YI9Xc6Dtyca...

Hochul is an awful messenger by and large. It's really the D next to her name keeping her afloat.

I think this isn't quite an OK or KS situation though, yes there are prbolems in NY but not of that caliber.

I'd expect a bit more from you.

Look I'm sorry but it's true. I can still align myself more with her than Zeldin but also believe her messaging and optics are terrible.

I will just say your most recent comments capture my views on this just fine.

[Horus]

I must admonish Atlas posters, especially young men, that their personal hygiene, especially as to washing and shaving, does reflect on their personal judgment, especially when they further choose to broadcast their appearance online.

Please do not get the wrong idea from the above posts; while it is wrong to vocally criticize another's poor appearance rather than simply ignoring it, people will and should consider whether or not you've showered when you try to convince them of literally anything. I cannot stress this enough, based on my interactions with young men interested in politics and elections.

I didn't know you had access to Drew Savinki's schedule and had a schedule of when he showered. And I didn't know that having facial hair was a sign of bad hygiene.

No one said having facial hair is a sign of bad hygiene. I've had a beard since I was 17, but I always make sure to keep it maintained, shave once a week, barber once a month etc. Mr. Savicki seems like a nice guy, and he's made some great maps on twitter, but he looks like the smelly kid who sits in the corner of the class. I'm sorry but it's true.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I must admonish Atlas posters, especially young men, that their personal hygiene, especially as to washing and shaving, does reflect on their personal judgment, especially when they further choose to broadcast their appearance online.

Please do not get the wrong idea from the above posts; while it is wrong to vocally criticize another's poor appearance rather than simply ignoring it, people will and should consider whether or not you've showered when you try to convince them of literally anything. I cannot stress this enough, based on my interactions with young men interested in politics and elections.

I didn't know you had access to Drew Savinki's schedule and had a schedule of when he showered. And I didn't know that having facial hair was a sign of bad hygiene.

No one said having facial hair is a sign of bad hygiene. I've had a beard since I was 17, but I always make sure to keep it maintained, shave once a week, barber once a month etc. Mr. Savicki seems like a nice guy, and he's made some great maps on twitter, but he looks like the smelly kid who sits in the corner of the class. I'm sorry but it's true.

I'm dropping this because it's getting into the weeds at this point, but this just smacks of hearsay unsupported by facts. If the specific charge wasn't actually some iteration of "facial hair=bad hygiene", then that's great, but it doesn't make much sense to me if Drew actually didn't "shower". That's a profoundly silly thing to claim without evidence, and it's textbook "shoot the messenger" to use this to shoot down any arguements that they might raise. Is it so hard to look mainly at what is being said and not who is saying it? This is some of the most pitiful and mean-spirited stuff I've seen on this board. Somehow it made me sympathize with *Election Twitter* people. Lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I must admonish Atlas posters, especially young men, that their personal hygiene, especially as to washing and shaving, does reflect on their personal judgment, especially when they further choose to broadcast their appearance online.

Please do not get the wrong idea from the above posts; while it is wrong to vocally criticize another's poor appearance rather than simply ignoring it, people will and should consider whether or not you've showered when you try to convince them of literally anything. I cannot stress this enough, based on my interactions with young men interested in politics and elections.

I didn't know you had access to Drew Savinki's schedule and had a schedule of when he showered. And I didn't know that having facial hair was a sign of bad hygiene.

No one said having facial hair is a sign of bad hygiene. I've had a beard since I was 17, but I always make sure to keep it maintained, shave once a week, barber once a month etc. Mr. Savicki seems like a nice guy, and he's made some great maps on twitter, but he looks like the smelly kid who sits in the corner of the class. I'm sorry but it's true.

I think he's autistic and autistic people can frequently struggle with hygiene (myself included). Also autistic people can become very obsessed with certain things, and he is def obsessed with political maps and such. Considering that, I feel like he's a normal nice guy who's unfairly frowned upon by much of society

[Horus]

I must admonish Atlas posters, especially young men, that their personal hygiene, especially as to washing and shaving, does reflect on their personal judgment, especially when they further choose to broadcast their appearance online.

Please do not get the wrong idea from the above posts; while it is wrong to vocally criticize another's poor appearance rather than simply ignoring it, people will and should consider whether or not you've showered when you try to convince them of literally anything. I cannot stress this enough, based on my interactions with young men interested in politics and elections.

I didn't know you had access to Drew Savinki's schedule and had a schedule of when he showered. And I didn't know that having facial hair was a sign of bad hygiene.

No one said having facial hair is a sign of bad hygiene. I've had a beard since I was 17, but I always make sure to keep it maintained, shave once a week, barber once a month etc. Mr. Savicki seems like a nice guy, and he's made some great maps on twitter, but he looks like the smelly kid who sits in the corner of the class. I'm sorry but it's true.

I think he's autistic and autistic people can frequently struggle with hygiene (myself included). Also autistic people can become very obsessed with certain things, and he is def obsessed with political maps and such. Considering that, I feel like he's a normal nice guy who's unfairly frowned upon by much of society

That's fair, and I will admit I did come off as a bit of a dickhead.

I have no ill will towards the guy, all I'm really saying is a nice shave and a haircut can do wonders for a man.

[DaleCooper]

Yeah I hate to pile on the criticism here, but that hair is a problem.

[Duke of York]

to get this back on topic what is everyone's prediction for the margin in this race. I predict somewhere around 57-42 Hochul.

[GeorgiaModerate]

to get this back on topic what is everyone's prediction for the margin in this race. I predict somewhere around 57-42 Hochul.

I’ll go a bit closer than that, say Hochul +12.

[Orwell]

Lol u Libs are in denial, Hochul will win but it will be narrow.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Just say, Led Zeppelin ekes out a narrow victory, say 50,1% to 49.9%, what counties would Hochschul still win?

I'd assume, all NYC boroughs (bar Staten Island), Westchester, Albany, and Tompkins are safe for the Democrat.
The pivotal question will be if she would also be going to Nassau, Rockland, Buffalo and Rochester.

What do you think?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Just say, Led Zeppelin ekes out a narrow victory, say 50,1% to 49.9%, what counties would Hochschul still win?

I'd assume, all NYC boroughs (bar Staten Island), Westchester, Albany, and Tompkins are safe for the Democrat.
The pivotal question will be if she would also be going to Nassau, Rockland, Buffalo and Rochester.

What do you think?

Barring NYC just not voting at all, I cannot see a path for Zeldin that doesn't include winning Nassau and winning it by a decent margin at minimum. Erie is complicated because Hochul is from there, but at the same time Zeldin kind of needs that as well.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Barring NYC just not voting at all, I cannot see a path for Zeldin that doesn't include winning Nassau and winning it by a decent margin at minimum. Erie is complicated because Hochul is from there, but at the same time Zeldin kind of needs that as well.

I tried to figure out what counties Zeldin needs to win by taking a look at Pataki's election, but I saw that the county map was kind of "flawed", as both his elections were three-way races, with a liberal independent running in either case.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I was three years old when George Pataki defeated Mario Cuomo, but there are a number of similarities here that I have heard pointed out. Among them the economy and crime topping the charts,

One interesting dynamic that Zeldin doesn't have to deal with is Rudy fing Giuliani. Rudy endorsed Cuomo and actually campaigned across the state with him, which severely dented Pataki's momentum the last couple of weeks. A late shift towards Republicans nationally as well people breaking for the change option got Pataki over the top anyway. Zeldin is also facing a much weaker Democratic candidate arguably.

On the other hand, Zeldin's coalition is far more novel in contrast to Pataki who was only ten years removed from the last GOP Presidential victory in the state, had a much higher floor and was drawing on voters much more comfortable voting for Republicans at the time. A lot of those voters are now dead or in Florida. Zeldin is going to need deep inroads with Asians and Hispanics in the outer boroughs to have a chance and it might be trying to accomplish too much in one cycle, but we will see I guess.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Barring NYC just not voting at all, I cannot see a path for Zeldin that doesn't include winning Nassau and winning it by a decent margin at minimum. Erie is complicated because Hochul is from there, but at the same time Zeldin kind of needs that as well.

I tried to figure out what counties Zeldin needs to win by taking a look at Pataki's election, but I saw that the county map was kind of "flawed", as both his elections were three-way races, with a liberal independent running in either case.

Zeldin is very unlikely to win Westchester at this point also and definitely will not win Tompkins.

Zeldin will do better in the North Country than Pataki 1994, but will do worse in the Hudson Valley thanks to all those NYC transplants.

Beyond that, you really have to get more granular than counties within NYC and start examining various communities for improvements.

[wbrocks67]

I wonder if there’s already a mod for this race?
https://twitter.com/carbo_al/status/1587493312537264129?s=46&t=U9YI9Xc6Dtyca...

Hochul is an awful messenger by and large. It's really the D next to her name keeping her afloat.

I think this isn't quite an OK or KS situation though, yes there are prbolems in NY but not of that caliber.

I'd expect a bit more from you.

Look I'm sorry but it's true. I can still align myself more with her than Zeldin but also believe her messaging and optics are terrible.

I meant you taking the NY Post at its word

[warandwar]

James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.

[AGA]

Just say, Led Zeppelin ekes out a narrow victory, say 50,1% to 49.9%, what counties would Hochschul still win?

I'd assume, all NYC boroughs (bar Staten Island), Westchester, Albany, and Tompkins are safe for the Democrat.
The pivotal question will be if she would also be going to Nassau, Rockland, Buffalo and Rochester.

What do you think?

There is no way for Zeldin to win without carrying Nassau and Rockland by a large margin. He would possibly have to carry Erie and Monroe too.

[Orwell]

James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.

Dolan is trying to depress NYC turnout even more

[Duke of York]

James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.

I have no idea who that is and I doubt many other people do.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.

I have no idea who that is and I doubt many other people do.

Madison Square Garden tax break, from the looks of it.

[Orwell]

James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.

I have no idea who that is and I doubt many other people do.

He owns the Knicks and is widely despised in New York, he's banned multiple fans for yelling at him to sell the team.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

There is no way for Zeldin to win without carrying Nassau and Rockland by a large margin. He would possibly have to carry Erie and Monroe too.

According to the polls, Zeldin seems to get at least 45% of the vote. These votes must come from somewhere. I assume that he is going to do very well in Nassau.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is no way for Zeldin to win without carrying Nassau and Rockland by a large margin. He would possibly have to carry Erie and Monroe too.

According to the polls, Zeldin seems to get at least 45% of the vote. These votes must come from somewhere. I assume that he is going to do very well in Nassau.

He would probably do even better in Suffolk.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Hochul will win easily. Why is there so much nonsense being said and discussed in here?

[amdcpus]

I think Zeldin has an outside shot at winning but my prediction is Hochul by 6%.