In which states will Trump break 60%?

[Orser67]

In which states will Trump break 60% of the vote? In the poll, I listed every state (+Maine and Nebraska congressional districts) where Trump won at least 50% in 2016, regardless of what I personally think of Trump's chances of winning 60%+ in the state (so please just answer the poll question). This is a follow-up to a poll I made about the states where Biden will win 60% of the vote.

[°Leprechaun]

NE 3 and Wyoming. That's it.
He might break 60% in other states, but who really knows?

[Tekken_Guy]

Wyoming, West Virginia, NE-3, and the Dakotas. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Arkansas could go either way.

[Calthrina950]

Wyoming, West Virginia, NE-3, and the Dakotas. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Arkansas could go either way.

I still think Trump will clear 60% in Oklahoma and Arkansas, even if he loses Oklahoma County in the former. Biden would probably be able to get to as high as 35% if he carries Oklahoma County-as polls suggest that he may, but I struggle to see him reaching anything higher than that. Arkansas gave Trump the exact same percentage as Mitt Romney in 2012, and the leftward trends in Pulaski and Washington Counties probably won't be enough to drop him below the 60% mark.

As for Alabama, Biden could hit 40%, but it is unlikely. Walt Maddox was able to reach the 40% mark in 2018 by narrowly winning Tuscaloosa County, winning Jefferson County by 18%, obtaining a third of the vote in Shelby County, and coming within single digits in Madison and Mobile Counties. Biden certainly will not carry Tuscaloosa (Maddox was the "native son" of the county, having been Mayor of Tuscaloosa), and I don't think he'll come within single digits in Madison and Mobile. For these reasons, I think Trump will still clear 60% in Alabama.

[Tekken_Guy]

Wyoming, West Virginia, NE-3, and the Dakotas. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Arkansas could go either way.

I still think Trump will clear 60% in Oklahoma and Arkansas, even if he loses Oklahoma County in the former. Biden would probably be able to get to as high as 35% if he carries Oklahoma County-as polls suggest that he may, but I struggle to see him reaching anything higher than that. Arkansas gave Trump the exact same percentage as Mitt Romney in 2012, and the leftward trends in Pulaski and Washington Counties probably won't be enough to drop him below the 60% mark.

As for Alabama, Biden could hit 40%, but it is unlikely. Walt Maddox was able to reach the 40% mark in 2018 by narrowly winning Tuscaloosa County, winning Jefferson County by 18%, obtaining a third of the vote in Shelby County, and coming within single digits in Madison and Mobile Counties. Biden certainly will not carry Tuscaloosa (Maddox was the "native son" of the county, having been Mayor of Tuscaloosa), and I don't think he'll come within single digits in Madison and Mobile. For these reasons, I think Trump will still clear 60% in Alabama.

I think all will still be in the upper 50s, alongside Idaho, Kentucky, Nebraska, and Tennessee. Mid-50s will include Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, NE-1, and Utah. Lower 50s will be Alaska, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina.

I see an upper-single digit PV win for Biden right now.

[Calthrina950]

Wyoming, West Virginia, NE-3, and the Dakotas. Oklahoma, Alabama, and Arkansas could go either way.

I still think Trump will clear 60% in Oklahoma and Arkansas, even if he loses Oklahoma County in the former. Biden would probably be able to get to as high as 35% if he carries Oklahoma County-as polls suggest that he may, but I struggle to see him reaching anything higher than that. Arkansas gave Trump the exact same percentage as Mitt Romney in 2012, and the leftward trends in Pulaski and Washington Counties probably won't be enough to drop him below the 60% mark.

As for Alabama, Biden could hit 40%, but it is unlikely. Walt Maddox was able to reach the 40% mark in 2018 by narrowly winning Tuscaloosa County, winning Jefferson County by 18%, obtaining a third of the vote in Shelby County, and coming within single digits in Madison and Mobile Counties. Biden certainly will not carry Tuscaloosa (Maddox was the "native son" of the county, having been Mayor of Tuscaloosa), and I don't think he'll come within single digits in Madison and Mobile. For these reasons, I think Trump will still clear 60% in Alabama.

I think all will still be in the upper 50s, alongside Idaho, Kentucky, Nebraska, and Tennessee. Mid-50s will include Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, NE-1, and Utah. Lower 50s will be Alaska, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina.

I see an upper-single digit PV win for Biden right now.

This seems reasonable enough, and I agree with you that Trump will once again underperform in Idaho and Utah compared to Romney, McCain, and Bush, as Mormons are still very ambivalent about him, and there are demographic trends in the Boise and Salt Lake City metropolitan areas that work in the Democrats' favor. We have also seen polls showing Trump dropping into the upper 50s in Kentucky and Tennessee, and Biden could easily match Obama's 2008 performance in those states. But as I said, it will be hard for Biden to hit 40% in Oklahoma and Alabama. In the latter, Maddox had to improve in (or carry) half a dozen counties to clear the mark, and that path is not going to be as easy for Biden.

As for states where Trump will definitely hit 60%, I think that the Dakotas, Wyoming, and West Virginia are obvious. Either one of the latter two will be his best state. Wyoming narrowly edged out West Virginia for that title last time, but we'll see what happens now. Biden can get to 30% in both states-in Wyoming in particular, he may be able to carry Albany County with a majority, and I think he will hit 60% in Teton County, like Obama did in 2008. Trump will probably sweep West Virginia's counties again, but Biden might improve over Clinton's numbers in Kanawha, Monongalia, and Jefferson Counties-the only three counties in the state, I think, that have a plausible chance of breaking Democratic if the floor falls out from under Trump.

[Xing]

Assuming lower third party voting: AL, AR, ID, KY, NE-03, ND, OK, TN, WV, and WY. Not sure about NE or SD.

[Senator Spark]

Assuming lower third party voting: AL, AR, ID, KY, NE-03, ND, OK, TN, WV, and WY. Not sure about NE or SD.

This. But I threw in the latter two states.