WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Roll Roons]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

Johnson is behaving like he's trying to lose...look at Steve Southerland and Lee Terry in 2014. An incumbent can lose in a wave year for their party if they make enough stupid mistakes.

The thing is is that this race could easily be framed as one that may decide control of the Senate and therefore become a referendum on Biden and DC Democrats, rather than being a referendum on what Wisconsin voters think of Ron Johnson. Democrats would need it to be the latter if they want to have a real chance of flipping this seat.

[Yoda]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

Maybe not safe, but the dems absolutely curb stomped the republicans in the last supreme court election (where people stood in lines for hours to vote in the early days of the coronavirus no less), and Roe being overturned is in no way, shape or form going to help the republicans in the next one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be.  

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

Johnson is behaving like he's trying to lose...look at Steve Southerland and Lee Terry in 2014. An incumbent can lose in a wave year for their party if they make enough stupid mistakes.

The thing is is that this race could easily be framed as one that may decide control of the Senate and therefore become a referendum on Biden and DC Democrats, rather than being a referendum on what Wisconsin voters think of Ron Johnson. Democrats would need it to be the latter if they want to have a real chance of flipping this seat.

My Johnson is heavily underwater like Toomey is he doesn't have a 60 percent Approvals he has a 37 percent Approvals, Johnson isn't invincible Rs need to  🛑 acting like he is he is losing by 2 pts to all the D challengers

Everyone says Barnes is too left-wing Baldwin a socialist beat Tommy Thompson in 2012, Johnson isn't Rand Paul

Toomey retired because he has a 37 percent Approvals otherwise he would have stayed

[Unelectable Bystander]

I haven’t seen much chatter about the texts sent by Johnson. Are these real? I’m a bit confused because I would think they’d be entirely disqualifying if true

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs blocked the Jt Committee that's why we only have a Select Committee in the H, the Jt Committee would have aired the Johnson texts, and Mcconnell was the one that blocked it there were 55Rs that voted for the Jt Committee

It makes since now that Johnson said it was a normal tourist visit than an Insurrectionists

But, Johnson isn't seen by some Indies as a Cruz type or josh Hawley they see him as Joe the Plummer that's why some insist that Johnson whom has a 37% Approvals but Toomey has the same Approvals that's why he retired even inoffensive Rs can lose too

[lfromnj]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

Maybe not safe, but the dems absolutely curb stomped the republicans in the last supreme court election (where people stood in lines for hours to vote in the early days of the coronavirus no less), and Roe being overturned is in no way, shape or form going to help the republicans in the next one.

They curb stomped due to the fact that the election was held concurrent to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

Maybe not safe, but the dems absolutely curb stomped the republicans in the last supreme court election (where people stood in lines for hours to vote in the early days of the coronavirus no less), and Roe being overturned is in no way, shape or form going to help the republicans in the next one.

They curb stomped due to the fact that the election was held concurrent to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

How would it have likely gone if both primaries were concurrent on the same day?

[lfromnj]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

Maybe not safe, but the dems absolutely curb stomped the republicans in the last supreme court election (where people stood in lines for hours to vote in the early days of the coronavirus no less), and Roe being overturned is in no way, shape or form going to help the republicans in the next one.

They curb stomped due to the fact that the election was held concurrent to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

How would it have likely gone if both primaries were concurrent on the same day?

I mean the R primary existed it was just all but uncontested.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

Maybe not safe, but the dems absolutely curb stomped the republicans in the last supreme court election (where people stood in lines for hours to vote in the early days of the coronavirus no less), and Roe being overturned is in no way, shape or form going to help the republicans in the next one.

They curb stomped due to the fact that the election was held concurrent to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

How would it have likely gone if both primaries were concurrent on the same day?

I mean the R primary existed it was just all but uncontested.

Ok, true. That's fair.
Not too different from the PA Supreme Court elections some while back in the 2010s...

[wbrocks67]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

[SnowLabrador]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

That's not enough. Granted, no amount of money is likely to be enough, but this doesn't inspire confidence in his chances.

[YE]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

That's not enough. Granted, no amount of money is likely to be enough, but this doesn't inspire confidence in his chances.

I mean I don’t think Barnes is going to win but you’ve never had confidence in any Democrat winning ever.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

That's not enough. Granted, no amount of money is likely to be enough, but this doesn't inspire confidence in his chances.

I mean I don’t think Barnes is going to win but you’ve never had confidence in any Democrat winning ever.

Lol he was leading 46/44 on MQk poll and so was Evers 47)43 over Kleefisch

[wbrocks67]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

That's not enough. Granted, no amount of money is likely to be enough, but this doesn't inspire confidence in his chances.

He's not even the nominee yet. Just stop. For all of us. Just stop.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes raises $2.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1544992119713959937

That's not enough. Granted, no amount of money is likely to be enough, but this doesn't inspire confidence in his chances.

DOOMERS on this site about Barnes

Johnson has a 37 percent Approvals in the MQK poll like Toomey did

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1546210215569367040

[ProgressiveModerate]

Johnson comes across as another Lindsey Graham at this point; someone who went from a pretty generic R to just awful with no compass trying to throw red meat everywhere.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also, I still think it's insane, Johnson overperformed Biden by 30-40% in many suburban Milwaukee precincts, that likely isn't happenning come 2022 even if it's an amazing year for Rs. He had significant overperformances in basically everyone metro in the state and universal underperformance in rural areas. We'll see how fast these communities re-align come 20922.

[wbrocks67]

Call me crazy but I think people are vastly overrating Johnson this year.

In 2016 he was basically a generic R. That is not the case this time around

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are overestimating Johnson he has a 37% Approvals in MQK Polls

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Call me crazy but I think people are vastly overrating Johnson this year.

In 2016 he was basically a generic R. That is not the case this time around

I'm on the same page here. I don't know if I'm ready to say that Johnson loses for sure, but he is absolutely not your typical incumbent, even in a red wave year, which this year is not guaranteed to be.

[Xing]

As someone who watched the 2016 race closely (and has the mental trauma to prove it), Johnson was not a “generic R” then. He has always been really far right and said some really absurd things. He might be hamming it up a bit more this time, but he’s never not been awful. Much as I’d like to see him lose, these sorts of statements aren’t going to be enough to make that happen.

[Politician]

As someone who watched the 2016 race closely (and has the mental trauma to prove it), Johnson was not a “generic R” then. He has always been really far right and said some really absurd things. He might be hamming it up a bit more this time, but he’s never not been awful. Much as I’d like to see him lose, these sorts of statements aren’t going to be enough to make that happen.

Right on the mark. Johnson has always been considered a "weak" candidate and been underestimated by this forum and others. "Swing voters" don't actually care about ideology, they care about perceived "authenticity".

[GeorgiaModerate]

As someone who watched the 2016 race closely (and has the mental trauma to prove it), Johnson was not a “generic R” then. He has always been really far right and said some really absurd things. He might be hamming it up a bit more this time, but he’s never not been awful. Much as I’d like to see him lose, these sorts of statements aren’t going to be enough to make that happen.

Right on the mark. Johnson has always been considered a "weak" candidate and been underestimated by this forum and others. "Swing voters" don't actually care about ideology, they care about perceived "authenticity".

Well, Johnson is authentically awful, so I guess he has that going for him.

[wbrocks67]

As someone who watched the 2016 race closely (and has the mental trauma to prove it), Johnson was not a “generic R” then. He has always been really far right and said some really absurd things. He might be hamming it up a bit more this time, but he’s never not been awful. Much as I’d like to see him lose, these sorts of statements aren’t going to be enough to make that happen.

Right, but do people know all of the things he's said? Social media is way different now than it was in 2022, and he's been clearly on TV many times and in the news for many worse things than 2016. I get what you're saying, but people acting as if he was the same candidate in 2016 are just flat out wrong imo. He's much, much worse now.